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What is best? Pushy Grand

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 06:19


IMPs converted to VPs

You are pushing in the London Superleague and reach grand here. They lead a trump, and if you draw a second round West has 2 and East discards a small spade (distribution). Over to you.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 07:35

The simple answer is that I can make this if either opp has sole control of the spades and hearts, or E controls both blacks 5-5. It looks to me that E has discarded his 5th spade or from xxx so this may have chances. Essentially play 3 rounds of clubs ruffing, cash the A and rumble the trumps leaving:



and you hope when you lead 7 either E has 3 spades including sole control and the (K or remaining club) or W had sole control of the spades (5 of them or QJ10) and the K

No doubt there is no squeeze and the finesse works, but I think when you get that discard, the odds favour the squeeze.

Of course you cash the A by leading the J in case it gets covered, so the one remaining is actually the 10.
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 10:00

Lamford "IMPs converted to VPs. You are pushing in the London Superleague and reach grand here. They lead a trump, and if you draw a second round West has 2 and East discards a small spade (distribution). Over to you."
++++++++++++++++++
I like CyberYeti's line. IMO when East discards a at trick 2, he is likely to have started with at least 5 of them. In that case, CyberYeti's line works whenever the finesse would have worked. It also works when QJ drop in 3 or East has sole control.
I suspect that 7 on the North-South hands is a nearly a kibitzer-make i.e. no matter how the cards are distributed in the East-West hands, barring a ruff at trick-1, there is a successful double-dummy line. e.g.
An inferior alternative to CyberYeti's line is: retain A and cash 6 trumps A and KA. A player with K and sole control will be trump-squeezed, as here (but you might have to guess the ending).
Actually there are possible East-West distributions that would would thwart a double-dummy declarer :(

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#4 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 10:16

Is 5 in the auction (explained as 3 keycards) a typo?
If not, what are the other replies to 4 here?
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#5 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 15:18

It is an interesting hand. Perhaps someone with more knowledge than me explain why the squeeze may be preferable to the finesse? With virtually no information to go on, shouldn't one go for the most straightforward option than try to conjure some clever play that succeeds when the finesse fails (as much as I like Cyberyeti's and Nigel's analysis)?

It is perhaps worthy of a discussion by itself. I realise that if you can combine both chances at the same time that would be the perfect scenario, but aren't squeeze situations primarily where you are one or two tricks short of making a contract by no other means available. Here a simple finesse suffices. Is the squeeze better than a 50% chance?
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 16:52

View PostFelicityR, on 2020-July-04, 15:18, said:

It is an interesting hand. Perhaps someone with more knowledge than me explain why the squeeze may be preferable to the finesse? With virtually no information to go on, shouldn't one go for the most straightforward option than try to conjure some clever play that succeeds when the finesse fails (as much as I like Cyberyeti's and Nigel's analysis)?

It is perhaps worthy of a discussion by itself. I realise that if you can combine both chances at the same time that would be the perfect scenario, but aren't squeeze situations primarily where you are one or two tricks short of making a contract by no other means available. Here a simple finesse suffices. Is the squeeze better than a 50% chance?


Not in abstract, but if the spade discard is a true card then the likelihood is that either it was from 5 of them or from xxx, in either case only one opponent now controls the spades. The opponent that controls the spades is slightly less than 50:50 to hold the heart K by vacant spaces, but you also have the chance that E does (which I think is most likely) and he controls the clubs or QJ drop from either side with one ruff which you can also test before finessing.
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#7 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-July-04, 19:59


If you take East's discard into account, squeeze prospects are good. You can just cash s for the first 5 tricks, reducing to the position on the left.

You can then continue with CyberYeti's excellent line: A, A, K. ruff, last , making when
- QJ drop in 3
- East has sole control in the black suits
- Either defender has sole control and K.

But defenders' discards will sometimes help you choose another option.
Even the finesse, a trick earlier.




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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 03:35

View Postnige1, on 2020-July-04, 19:59, said:


If you take East's discard into account, squeeze prospects are good. You can just cash s for the first 5 tricks, reducing to the position on the left.

You can then continue with CyberYeti's excellent line: A, A, K. ruff, last , making when
- QJ drop in 3
- East has sole control in the black suits
- Either defender has sole control and K.

But defenders' discards will sometimes help you choose another option.
Even the finesse, a trick earlier.



This is actually not optimal, against non expert defenders you want to table the J early. A lot of defenders will either twitch or cover. If they play low smoothly, you play the ace and carry on with plan A.
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 13:44

View Postpescetom, on 2020-July-04, 10:16, said:

Is 5 in the auction (explained as 3 keycards) a typo?
If not, what are the other replies to 4 here?

Sorry, I don't know.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 13:53

"The winning line is to draw two trumps, unblock A, cross to K, cash K, cash K, and play all but one of the diamonds – from hand you throw Q and two spades. Then a spade to the ace squeezes me (West) in a position where dummy has J10 and a trump, declarer has A and 10x. My hand at that point (before discarding) is Kx Jx. I throw a club and he can ruff out the suit and get back to hand with A. I throw a heart, he can cash A and get to dummy by ruffing a club. The trump has the same role as a singleton winner in clubs in the standard criss-cross squeeze." writes current Camrose winner Peter Taylor, whose partner would be dismayed at Cyber's suggestion that he might twitch over the J. ChCh would, of course, deciding whether to give true or false count from 9763.

The declarer was his team mate in the England team, also a current Camrose (and Superleague) winner, Tom Townsend, who took about ten minutes over the hand and then took the heart finesse when the clubs did not oblige, but commented that he thought it was losing before taking it. West's hand, pasted for convenience;
♠ 105
♥ K842
♦ 63
♣ J9853
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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