[Trumpace]

Playing rubber bridge, you are South in a 3NT contract.

---

You reach 3NT, opps passing all the time. 1S-2D-2NT-3NT.

West leads club Q. You hold up 2 times, discarding a spade from dummy. East turns up with 3 clubs at least.

(EDIT: East overtakes the first club and returns the club 9 and then continues with the 3)

What is the best line after winning ♣A? (Please calculate the odds if possible)

A ) Lead ♥J (finesse K)
B ) Lead ♦Q (finesse J next)
C ) Lead low ♦
D ) Lead low ♥
E) other...

Assume expert defense.

Richard Pavlicek's suit break calculator: http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

This post has been edited by Trumpace: 2005-December-19, 20:24

[awm]

I'll let the ♥9 ride next.

Even if diamonds are 3-3, we don't have enough tricks (5♦+1♣+1♠+1♥) without taking a finesse somewhere. West is something of a favorite to have the outstanding clubs if the suit is 5-3 (perhaps one can tell this based on the opponents plays to the club tricks though). I don't think there's any information we can get that will really tell us to take the spade hook over the heart hook, and the heart finesse has the advantage that if it wins we have nine tricks (4♥+3♦+two aces).

If the heart finesse loses there are various chances available (unless east has five clubs) and we can wait on the diamond decision.

[cherdano]

awm, on Dec 20 2005, 04:04 AM, said:

I'll let the ♥9 ride next.

Even if diamonds are 3-3, we don't have enough tricks (5♦+1♣+1♠+1♥) without taking a finesse somewhere. West is something of a favorite to have the outstanding clubs if the suit is 5-3 (perhaps one can tell this based on the opponents plays to the club tricks though). I don't think there's any information we can get that will really tell us to take the spade hook over the heart hook, and the heart finesse has the advantage that if it wins we have nine tricks (4♥+3♦+two aces).

If the heart finesse loses there are various chances available (unless east has five clubs) and we can wait on the diamond decision.

Well, if the heart finesse loses and RHO returns a spade, you have to decide between spades and diamonds (the latter should be better) immediately. Expert opponents will find this.

Still I don't see any better line.

I would also like to know the club tricks. Does it look like LHO has 4 or 5 of them?

Arend

[Trumpace]

I have edited the original post. Looks like RHO has K93.

[awm]

After the heart finesse loses, a spade comes back and I can win the ace. Now I can cash some more hearts. This gives me a count on both the hearts and clubs, which can help to make a decision about the diamond suit.

In general it seems like 3-3 diamonds will be more likely than jack with west, since west apparently has a five-card club suit. The count on the hearts will of course effect this somewhat, but unless hearts break 5-1 I think I'd go with diamonds from the top.

[pclayton]

With better entries, I'd try the diamonds. If 4-2, I would know I need the spade hook if the heart lost.

Still, I can't see a problem with trying a low diamond to the board and a diamond back, before the 9♥. If I get the J or Jx♦, I'm basically playing for overtricks with the heart hook.

If the J♦doesn't fall, I have a guess to take the spade hook or try to drop the J♦ 3rd.

[cherdano]

pclayton, on Dec 20 2005, 06:18 AM, said:

With better entries, I'd try the diamonds. If 4-2, I would know I need the spade hook if the heart lost. 

Still, I can't see a problem with trying a low diamond to the board and a diamond back, before the 9♥. If I get the J or Jx♦, I'm basically playing for overtricks with the heart hook.

If the J♦doesn't fall, I have a guess to take the spade hook or try to drop the J♦ 3rd.

The problem with this line is RHO might duck twice with ♥Kxx, and you are shut off the board. Is this realistic? I think so, he should know the diamond count.

The other reason I gave up on this is that after two diamonds from the top (no J falling) and a losing heart finesse, it is most of the time still best to go for diamonds, and spade finesse will only be a marginal improvement if at all.

Arend

[Trumpace]

cherdano, on Dec 20 2005, 05:57 AM, said:

pclayton, on Dec 20 2005, 06:18 AM, said:

With better entries, I'd try the diamonds. If 4-2, I would know I need the spade hook if the heart lost. 

Still, I can't see a problem with trying a low diamond to the board and a diamond back, before the 9♥. If I get the J or Jx♦, I'm basically playing for overtricks with the heart hook.

If the J♦doesn't fall, I have a guess to take the spade hook or try to drop the J♦ 3rd.

The problem with this line is RHO might duck twice with ♥Kxx, and you are shut off the board. Is this realistic? I think so, he should know the diamond count.

<snip>

Arend

If both E-W follow to 2 rounds of hearts, and when we play a 3rd round and West follows, the odds now favour a 3-3 break, so we go can up with the Ace (of course this is if you think east is capable of ducking with Kxx). If West has the K after all, we can test diamonds and if not, fall back on the spade finesse.