[Poky]

Scoring: IMP

---

pass pass 1♥ pass
2♣ pass 4♥ all pass

Lead: ♦J

[han]

I can see three possible lines:

A) Win the ♦K, play ♥A and Q. Hope that they can't get a spade ruff immediately and that spades and clubs can be played for 2 losers.

Win the ♦K, take the club hook, intending to take the heart hook later. This obivously gains with respect to line (A) when the heart king is on, but inceases the risks of a quick spade ruff.

C) Win the ♦A and take the heart hook. This allows you to take all three finesses without significantly increasing the chance of a spade ruff. It does risk being shortened in trump when they split badly. It also risks an extra spade loser when they split 4-1.


At the table I would never be able to figure out which line has the best chances. I think that line © is the classiest, so I choose that one.

[pclayton]

Crash the ♦'s and play the ♥10 off the board. Using the A♦ as a pitch for the 4th spade (in case they are 4-1) doesn't seem very wise to me. This maximizes dummies entries for the spade and heart hooks.

I may regret this if hearts break 4-1 and 2 of the cards are offside, mind you, but I'm probably in trouble anyway.

[Free]

win ♦K, play ♣Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your ♣ loser on ♦A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold ♣K. So then we only need to play trumps and ♠ for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake...

I don't like to play ♦A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play ♦ which you have to ruff.

[mikeh]

I am not pretending to have worked out the odds, but my line is to win the ♦K and lead a low ♣ to the J.

If this wins, I am almost assured of a make: lead the ♥10, and I can afford 2♠ losers and will not lose control if trump are 4-1.

If it loses, then my line depends on how the defence goes. If RHO leads a low ♠, that might be from Axx or from Qxx, and I need to guess. If RHO leads the A and a ♠, that is probably from Ax but might be from AQx.

Assume that I get the ♠ guess right half the time: now I have to guess again: does the short ♠ hand have 2 or 3 trump? If 2, then I must play A and a trump. If 3, then I have to hope the K is onside.

Bear in mind that I will by then have some clue: rho will have shown the ♦Q (because of the lead) and the ♣K. If he also has the ♠A, I will not play him for the ♥K.

I think my line is 50% (roughly) when the ♣ hook wins and about another 15% or so for when it loses (If the ♠ guess is relevant, I get it right 50% of the time and I then get the trump right most of the time when it is possible).

The problems with Hannie's other two lines include the giving up in trump (unless the K is stiff), which means betting that you can hold your black suit losers to 2: most of the time you can do this, my line works as well, and my line works half the time that you have to lose 3 black tricks.

The 3rd line: winning trick 1 n dummy seems to me an unnecessary risk: you create a tap suit for the opps and you are almost always failing when trump are 4-1 unless both the ♣K and ♠Q are onside.

But this is the type of hand on which the Rodwells and Rosenbergs of the world demonstrate their strengths: I bet they'd know the correct line, percentagewise, while I am sort of fumbling my way to the answer

[pclayton]

Free, on Dec 22 2005, 09:32 AM, said:

win ♦K, play ♣Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your ♣ loser on ♦A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold ♣K. So then we only need to play trumps and ♠ for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake...

I don't like to play ♦A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play ♦ which you have to ruff.

Great line of play Frederick. Never occurred to me.

[mike777]

Have no idea what is best. Will just follow the rule of setting up side suit first so will lead Q of clubs and see what happens.