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Banker's Hand One Lead Problem

#1 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 04:22

I'm in Ireland this week playing bridge. Thought I'd share some of hands with you as we go along. Some of my decisions worked out great, some badly. See how you do.

Scoring: MP

2 - (3) - P - (3NT)
All Pass


You open a weak 2 hearts and opponents end in 3NT. 3 was natural.

Your lead.
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#2 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 04:44

Sorry, too stupid not to lead a heart. Which heart is interesting, there's a lot to be said for the Queen. (If declarer has the KJ it doesn't matter; if they are split then declarer has the K and dummy the Jack and I'd have thought it's more likely dummy has singleton Jack than Jxx).
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:01

Might try for a spade at MPs. Definitely a heart at imps. The 10, probably.
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:06

I lead 10 ay form of scoring, the Q is probably better, but I hardly ever think enough for that :)
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#5 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:07

FrancesHinden, on Mar 15 2006, 12:44 PM, said:

Sorry, too stupid not to lead a heart. Which heart is interesting, there's a lot to be said for the Queen. (If declarer has the KJ it doesn't matter; if they are split then declarer has the K and dummy the Jack and I'd have thought it's more likely dummy has singleton Jack than Jxx).

It seems low is also better when dummy has Jx and declarer Kxx. If we had an entry, Q would be more attractive.

Arend
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#6 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:08

Q, although it's a risk...
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#7 User is offline   42 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:24

Q. My feeling tells me Q but brain dominates today.
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#8 User is offline   jikl 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:49

My first thought was Q since it is a problem. We all get problemitis, as soon as a hand is posted, there must be something really clever to do. At the table I would probably lead Q.

Sean
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#9 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 06:43

cherdano, on Mar 15 2006, 12:07 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Mar 15 2006, 12:44 PM, said:

Sorry, too stupid not to lead a heart.  Which heart is interesting, there's a lot to be said for the Queen. (If declarer has the KJ it doesn't matter; if they are split then declarer has the K and dummy the Jack and I'd have thought it's more likely dummy has singleton Jack than Jxx).

It seems low is also better when dummy has Jx and declarer Kxx. If we had an entry, Q would be more attractive.

Arend

If dummy has Jx it's irrelevant whether we lead the Q or the 10

If we assume declarer has a stop, and that it's right to lead the suit at all (partner has 2 or 3 and an entry) then declarer can have

i) KJxx
ii) KJx
iii) KJ
iv) Kxxx
v) Kxx
vi) Kx
vii) Jxxx

On i, ii, iii, v and vii the queen and 10 are equivalent
On iv the queen is right if dummy has the jack (also if partner has singleton J and we have an entry)
On vi the 10 is better than the queen

So once you've decided to lead hearts, it's a straight guess between iv and vi.
vi is a more likely holding up front, but iv is more likely an immediate 3NT bid.
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#10 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 06:52

FrancesHinden, on Mar 15 2006, 02:43 PM, said:

cherdano, on Mar 15 2006, 12:07 PM, said:


It seems low is also better when dummy has Jx and declarer Kxx. If we had an entry, Q would be more attractive.

Arend

If dummy has Jx it's irrelevant whether we lead the Q or the 10

Maybe I am confused. When dummy has the Jx and declarer has Kxx, declarer can duck the Q lead and is safe forever. When we lead low and he ducks, we can still switch at trick two so that partner can lead a heart through later.

Or did I miss something as usual?

Arend
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#11 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 06:55

No, I did.
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#12 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 10:42

It also seems that the ten lead is better when declarer has Jxxx, since partner can win the king and return a heart. Leading the queen here blocks the suit when partner has Kx (even if partner overtakes declarer's jack will stand up).

The queen is right if we expect a side entry (and partner probably doesn't have one) because we need to play hearts totally out of our hand and therefore not lose a trick to the jack. The queen would also be right if we expected king in dummy. But on the actual hand and auction, I think the ten (or the nine) will be a more effective lead.
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#13 User is offline   akhare 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 11:20

Echognome, on Mar 15 2006, 05:22 AM, said:

I'm in Ireland this week playing bridge. Thought I'd share some of hands with you as we go along. Some of my decisions worked out great, some badly. See how you do.

Scoring: MP

2 - (3) - P - (3NT)
All Pass


You open a weak 2 hearts and opponents end in 3NT. 3 was natural.

Your lead.

Q -- leading Q looks like a crap shoot to me (probably pretty effective MP strategy)...

Atul
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#14 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 11:57

akhare, on Mar 15 2006, 05:20 PM, said:

Q -- leading Q looks like a crap shoot to me (probably pretty effective MP strategy)...

Two points here.

1) It's MPs, so NOT leading a heart should always be an option.

2) Where are the spades? Neither opponent has tried for spades (LHO will usually double with 4 and RHO will usually try to offer them as a contract with 5). So partner *IS* likely to have spade length.

I will post the hand shortly, although the actual result shouldn't sway our decision as to what is the best lead.
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#15 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 12:15

Ten of hearts, I think I need partner to have 2 hearts on this hand. They will not have 3 hearts.
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#16 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 13:26

My pard will raise to 3 on virtually all hands with 3 (and frequently 2).

Its very possible that hearts are 6=3=1=3 around the table and a heart lead limits us to NO heart tricks. If I lay off hearts, I can take two tricks.

I think I'll try the 9. A spade looks too desparate (but could work). A makes no sense.

I would try the Q at IMPs.
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#17 User is offline   Limey_p 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 15:17

great thread! I go Q here at matchpoints, Q at imps.
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#18 User is offline   eamongall 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 19:27

Scoring: MP

2 - 3 - P - 3NT
All Pass


I happened to choose the Q. Partner was quite happy.

I said later that at teams I would lead a heart 100%.

I can understand a heart lead working out better as well.
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