[1eyedjack]

Scoring: IMP

E....S....W....N
2♠..P...3♠...X
P...??
2♠ = normal weak 2
3♠ = to play

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Presumably at Matchpoints it is a no-brainer 3NT (agreed?)
What about IMP?

[effervesce]

3NT at both forms of scoring.

[CSGibson]

3N. 3N is making if partner has a reasonable hand, and we have to beat this 4 tricks to show a better profit than that at this vulnerability. You might talk me into passing at favorable vul, but not anything else.

[waubrey]

3NT every time.

[the hog]

3NT. Not close.

[1eyedjack]

Thanks for the replies, all. I reckoned that 3N making would certainly beat the penalty score, but it needed to be about 70% likely to make (gut feel) for it to be right to bid 3N, given the "certainty" of a 300+ penalty by defending. Anyway, I chose 3N also and then had to justify my confidence on a spade lead when dummy hit.

Scoring: IMP

E....S....W....N
2♠..P...3♠...X
P...3N...P...P
P
Lead ♠x

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So, this has good chances of making but also a few chances of going down. I am happy with the double (if P passes this gets passed out, which is not my idea of fun). But I am now a bit apprehensive of my decision not to defend.

Do you win trick 1, given the certainty of a continuation and having to choose a discard from dummy? What's the remainder of your plan?

[Edmunte1]

Win second spade discarding diamond and play diamond to the king

[CSGibson]

Win 2nd spade, pitching a diamond, and lead a small diamond to the K. If that wins, I'm playing down to my ace of clubs, then up to the Q. I will try and take 2 spades, 1 heart, 4 clubs, and 2 diamonds (with RHO having to have either the Ace of diamonds or the king of clubs, and if he has the ace of diamonds, he has to duck the first round, or I'm in trouble.)

[1eyedjack]

Thanks for that. Some of my thoughts were:

Ducking the first Spade gains iff East opened 2S on a 7 card suit. Has been known to happen and worth catering for if it is a cost nothing play. My concern is whether a diamond discard on the 2nd round cuts down your options. On the suggested lines it is true that you only need 2 Diamond tricks. On the other hand, 3 Diamond tricks is pretty likely and if that works we have other options for 9 tricks without relying on 4 Club tricks.

Low Diamond to the King is more likely to induce East to cover (in error) than bashing out a high Diamond from hand. Nevertheless there is a reasonable chance that East has the Diamond Ace even if the King wins, especially if it is East's only entry to the Spades.

Anyway, you have ducked trick 1, discarded a Diamond on the Spade continuation and led a Diamond to the King which wins, East discarding a Heart. You have not gone down yet, but in the grand tradition of Monty Hall, you now have an opportunity to reconsider your remaining strategy.

[han]

I'd play the club queen.

[pclayton]

This hand is a lot more complicated than other posters are giving it.

Definitely hold up on the 1st spade. Thats easy.

In practice, it probably doesn't matter what we pitch from dummy. We are probably going after the club suit at some point, after diamonds.

After the diamond is knocked out, playing the club suit is another tricky issue. Playing the Q gives us chances against only JT doubleton on your left, and looks silly if LHO has KTx, KJx or JTx. If LHO has Jx, he has an easy unblock.

I wrote a long post but I need to get back to work. I'll let others check in and I'll add more later.

[cherdano]

pclayton, on Oct 27 2008, 01:12 PM, said:

After the diamond is knocked out, playing the club suit is another tricky issue. Playing the Q gives us chances against only JT doubleton on your left, and looks silly if LHO has KTx, KJx or JTx. If LHO has Jx, he has an easy unblock.

I would just play ♣A and club to the queen at this point. (And yes I would start by a diamond to the king.)

[1eyedjack]

pclayton, on Oct 27 2008, 08:12 PM, said:

Definitely hold up on the 1st spade. Thats easy.

Am I missing something here? Is there some benefit to ducking trick 1 other than to cater for a 7-2 Spade break?

[1eyedjack]

I don't know how bad a line it is but after it was over I thought that it may be best to win trick 1 (or hold up and discard a club at trick 2, but winning trick 1 puts off that decision), then run the Diamond Jack. As it happens East shows out, so then take the heart finesse, but a low club to the Q (preserving the Ace) is also reasonable. It is vanishingly unlikely that there is a Kingleton Club with East having shown up with a Diamond void (that being the only holding where cashing the Ace first gains). On the actual deal a low Club goes to the J, Q and King, and now you have a finesse available against Tx of Clubs.

It does not seem reasonable to lead a high Diamond from hand purely to cater for the offchance that East shows out, but there may be benefits to retaining the lead in hand after the Diamond wins, except if you are just going to cash the Club Ace anyway as most pundits are going for.

It possibly would have been a more interesting problem had all followed low to the first Diamond instead of (as happened) East showing out. If not playing for a misdefence, you would expect West to hop in with the Diamond Ace if he had it, in order to clear Spades before declarer has had a chance to remove East's entry. On the other hand East should probably Duck the Ace if he has it. So the fact that the Diamond holds (with all following low) perhaps should suggest that the Diamond Ace is with East, which I think argues in favour of continuing Diamonds.

On the actual hand, East showing out on the first round exposes West as holding the Ace, which causes you to wonder why he ducked. It could just be a misdefence or it could be because winning the Ace and clearing Spades may induce you into going for Heart finesses which he can see is working, so by ducking it leaves you with more options in the play. That in turn may make the Heart finesse more likely.

Just some random thoughts. Shoot'em down by all means.

[pclayton]

1eyedjack, on Oct 27 2008, 02:47 PM, said:

pclayton, on Oct 27 2008, 08:12 PM, said:

Definitely hold up on the 1st spade. Thats easy.

Am I missing something here? Is there some benefit to ducking trick 1 other than to cater for a 7-2 Spade break?

Sure, if RHO has the ♦A, you might be knocking out his entry early.

[1eyedjack]

pclayton, on Oct 28 2008, 12:25 AM, said:

1eyedjack, on Oct 27 2008, 02:47 PM, said:

pclayton, on Oct 27 2008, 08:12 PM, said:

Definitely hold up on the 1st spade. Thats easy.

Am I missing something here? Is there some benefit to ducking trick 1 other than to cater for a 7-2 Spade break?

Sure, if RHO has the ♦A, you might be knocking out his entry early.

If RHO has ♦A then the action which removes his entry early is the act of playing on Diamonds early. That applies equally whether you win trick 1 (and then immediately play on Diamonds) or duck trick 1, win trick 2 and then immediately play on Diamonds. I have no problem with the suggestion that we should play on Diamonds when we get in, but that seems to be a separate issue from whether it is at trick 2 or trick 3.