[TylerE]

T76 in dummy
KQ832 in hand

You're in dummy with no more entires to dummy.

Goal is to lose at most one trick, and you'd rather lose it to LHO. You might survive losing two tricks, but in that case both MUST be to LHO.

[suokko]

What is odds for making if I lose 2 tricks to LHO? 100%? 50%?

What about 4-1? Do I survive that if losing 2 to LHO?

A lot of questions

But J doubleton ~26% (divided by 2 for ace in LHO) and J or 9 singleton RHO is ~5%. Plus when losing 2 to RHO for AJx ~10%.
When holdings like J(xx), 9(xx) and xx(x) in RHO can be one by running the T. Which totals for ~40% (7% for Jxx and J9 onside and 32% for losing 2 tricks for LHO).

So you should finesse with T if 0.13+0.15*x < 0.07+0.32*x That solves to
0.06/0.17 < x
meaning ~35% chance to make when losing 2 tricks to LHO then you should run the T.

Disclaimer: There maybe huge rounding errors. Because I didn't use exact values for subtotals or per cents for chances to make.

[Fluffy]

lets see

running the 10 wins

A9-Jxx
9x-AJx

(3 cases)

Low to King then duck

J9x-Ax
Jxx-A9

(3 cases each)


Low to king then queen

Jx-A9x
J9-Axx

(3 cases each)



Both lines work
AJ-9xx
A9x-Jx * EDIT: not always against perfect defence
Axx-J9 * EDIT: not always against perfect defence
AJx-9x
AJ9-xx
AJxx-9
A9xx-J

Maybe I am missing something, but looks like the 3 lines are the same.

psycollogically best seems to play Low to King then duck only if the 9 appears on your right, otherwise play the queen.

EDIT now I see that LHO can duck with Axx. That makes playing low to king then duck pretty poor unless you play with bad opponents. Run the 10 or K+Q seems best now

[suokko]

Looks like explanation can be understood 2 different ways.

I did understand that RHO should be kept out of leads even when only losing one trick which changes a lot here.
So here again it would be more important to know whole hand. And odds would also change if declarer knows about vacant places in defenders hands.

Fluffy:
9xx vs AJ. Running T might lose if opponent only covers with J in first trick.
9x vs AJx. if covering T at trick 1?

AJ vs 9xx. Alwaus winning? except if losing 2 tricks sometimes set even when doing it to safe hand.

With these combinations where defense gets chance to put declarer on guess looks like reason to play KQ first if losing only one trick to either opponent doesn't matter.

[TylerE]

Contract is 4♠

Hands are:

♠ Kxx ♥ T76 ♦ Axxx ♣ xx
♠ AQxxx ♥ KQ832 ♦ J ♣ Kx

Opening lead was K♦

Auction (uncontested): 1♠-1N-3♥-4♠

[dake50]

"Hands are" looks 2 entries: DA+SK. Fear H-ruff?

[TylerE]

Yes. My line of play started with winning the lead, then playing 3 rounds of trumps, ending in dummy. Hearts 4-1 is not all that unlikely.

[suokko]

TylerE, on Dec 2 2009, 06:28 PM, said:

Yes. My line of play started with winning the lead, then playing 3 rounds of trumps, ending in dummy. Hearts 4-1 is not all that unlikely.

Who had 3 spades?

That affects chances a bit too.

Funny deal in that you can't in fact afford to lose 2 ♥ because you can't lead ♣ towards king. You can't either play ♣ to king and then lose 2♥ because ♣A can take the trick and play ♦.

Ok. You can if the 2nd ♥ is won by hand which only has 3♦.

What do you play if ♥J comes from RHO to first trick. Do you play for A9xx in LHO? Is your opponent good enough to false card with J from J9?
That would be hard question to answer in table.

In actual deal I would lead ♥ to king in trick second. You are unlikely to win 4-1 anyway so taking the best chance for 3-2 split by leading twice towards KQ♥.

(A onside 2nd or 3rd is 50% of 3-2 split and 20% for A offside and J in doubleton while J doubleton is only 2/5 of 3-2 split)

[suokko]

lol.

This is very interesting problem. I just tough about psychological line. Steal the ♣ trick at 2nd trick. How many would raise the ♣A when there is only one dummy entry? ok might do from AQ(Jxxx).

Now you have something like 40-50% chance to win ♣ trick and then losing 2 ♥ will still let you make the contract.

[Phil]

TylerE, on Dec 2 2009, 11:28 AM, said:

Hearts 4-1 is not all that unlikely.

And if LHO wins the 1st heart and returns a heart, a loser is ruffed?

[suokko]

Phil, on Dec 3 2009, 02:37 AM, said:

TylerE, on Dec 2 2009, 11:28 AM, said:

Hearts 4-1 is not all that unlikely.

And if LHO wins the 1st heart and returns a heart, a loser is ruffed?

+ with 4-1 ♥ it is more likely that ruff goes to 3 card ♠ if not then it is not really about ruffing the loser.


To my previous comment: there was error in odds for playing twice towards KQ. I forgot the chance that A is offside but J is in doubleton which adds 20% to that line. (edited original post too)

[whereagles]

this is quite far from a basic combo lol

[hanp]

Besides the AJ holding in flully's post, there is also J9 vs Axx. There is only one such holding. (namely: that one.)