[kenberg]

y66, on 2019-May-25, 08:50, said:

Who said this: It doesn't matter how beautiful a theory is. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.

My guess was Feynman (honest, it was my guess) but I looked it up to be sure. He was pretty good at mathie things.
I have often noted that a professional life in mathematics has made it clear that math and logic must be used with care.
That's different from saying
"That shift could change economics itself, by attracting a new breed of students who are intrigued by the field's new empiricism, not put off by its mathiness and high theory. It could make economics departments more diverse, and more open to new perspectives from women and students of color."
Actually everything should be used with care, and that definitely includes empiricism.

[y66]

kenberg, on 2019-May-25, 16:30, said:

My guess was Feynman (honest, it was my guess) but I looked it up to be sure. He was pretty good at mathie things.
I have often noted that a professional life in mathematics has made it clear that math and logic must be used with care.
That's different from saying
"That shift could change economics itself, by attracting a new breed of students who are intrigued by the field's new empiricism, not put off by its mathiness and high theory. It could make economics departments more diverse, and more open to new perspectives from women and students of color."
Actually everything should be used with care, and that definitely includes empiricism.

I suspect Feynman and the author of your college econ text, who was no slouch in the math department, would have taken Chetty's course if it had been offered in their day, and would agree with your caution and would have been amused by Matthews' mathiness comment and your mild reproach on behalf of the field.

[Winstonm]

This is pretty interesting. Looks like the Republicans have run out of fingers with which to plug their dike:

Quote

Controversial Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) is being challenged by a fellow Republican in the 2020 election, the San Joaquin Valley Sun reports.

“Nunes drew his first challenger when Amir Daryoush Rezvani Sarabi, who simply goes by Dary Rezvani, filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission on Friday,” The Sun said.

Rezvani was born and raised in Fresno before attending Fresno City College and California State University, Fresno.

“Dary is no stranger to the burden of student loans, the perils of an unstable healthcare system, or a tax system that hurts local businesses while turning a blind eye to the corporations erasing the middle class,” he argued on his website. “In Congress, he will fight to strengthen our water supply, make it easier for local businesses to create jobs, and make healthcare and prescription drugs more affordable. Dary will be a voice for the valley.”

During his contentious 2018 re-election effort, Nunes lost the support of The Fresno Bee — which had supported him since 2002.

[Winstonm]

Let's hope this south doesn't again rise.

Quote

But even if one conceded Lee’s military prowess, he would still be responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans in defense of the South’s authority to own millions of human beings as property because they are black. Lee’s elevation is a key part of a 150-year-old propaganda campaign designed to erase slavery as the cause of the war and whitewash the Confederate cause as a noble one. That ideology is known as the Lost Cause, and as historian David Blight writes, it provided a “foundation on which Southerners built the Jim Crow system.”

[Winstonm]

The first "Memorial Day" was created by African Americans.

Quote

Thousands of black Charlestonians, most former slaves, remained in the city and conducted a series of commemorations to declare their sense of the meaning of the war. The largest of these events, and unknown until some extraordinary luck in my recent research, took place on May 1, 1865.

[Winstonm]

It's a shame the USA does not have an Attorney-General with as much fortitude as this British judge is showing:

Quote

To the shock of the British political establishment, a judge agreed Wednesday that Johnson, the former Conservative mayor of London, should face trial for deliberately lying to the public. “It is alleged that the conduct of which the proposed defendant is accused was a huge lie calculated to mislead the electorate by using inaccurate and misleading statements,” District Judge Margot Coleman wrote in her written statement.

The timing of this extraordinary case could scarcely be worse for Johnson, coming less than a week after he confirmed that he would run to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and thus British prime minister.

[Winstonm]

Thought experiment:

You need a life-saving surgery. Would you:

A) Prefer to have a single-pay insurance and allow a government worker to make a decision for you based on predetermined protocols?
B) Prefer private insurance and have CEO Stephen Miller chose for you, with his income tied to the cost of your surgery?

[Al_U_Card]

“In June 2019 the Earth will approach within [0.06 AU or 9 million km] of the center of the Taurid swarm, its closest post-perihelion encounter with Earth since 1975,” write UWO astronomers David Clark, Paul Wiegert and Peter Brown in a paper just accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. “This will be the best viewing geometry to detect and place limits on the number of Near-Earth Objects proposed to reside at the swarm center until the early 2030s.”

https://www.youtube....h?v=_WRtLHS82cA

[johnu]

Winstonm, on 2019-June-05, 17:06, said:

Thought experiment:

You need a life-saving surgery. Would you:

A) Prefer to have a single-pay insurance and allow a government worker to make a decision for you based on predetermined protocols?
B) Prefer private insurance and have CEO Stephen Miller chose for you, with his income tied to the cost of your surgery?

Obviously you would have Miller choose for you. He has a half dozen doctorates from Trump University, the best money can buy. He might have several thousand doctorates that he bought at a fire sale when Trump University went bankrupt. You can't argue with an expert on nearly everything....

[Winstonm]

johnu, on 2019-June-08, 08:13, said:

Obviously you would have Miller choose for you. He has a half dozen doctorates from Trump University, the best money can buy. He might have several thousand doctorates that he bought at a fire sale when Trump University went bankrupt. You can't argue with an expert on nearly everything....

You could be assured of one thing: the doctors would all be dressed in white.

[y66]

From The Greens Are Germany’s Leading Political Party. Wait, What? by Jochen Bittner at NYT:

Quote

HAMBURG, Germany — The emergence of the Green Party as a leading force in German politics is not unlike the flowering of the Serengeti after a rainstorm: What had been mere seeds one minute, hidden but full of potential, sprout overnight, so fast and so fully that it’s hard to remember how things looked before.

After winning a modest 8.9 percent of the votes in the general elections in 2017, the Greens jumped to 20.5 percent in the recent European elections, scoring their best result ever on the national level. Then, in a poll last week, the Greens received 26 percent, topping Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, which came in at 25 percent, and making the Greens the leading political party. Long considered a left-wing fringe group, the Greens are now in control of Germany’s progressive agenda — a fact that could reshape German politics for decades to come.

The party began as a motley crew of Marxists, ecologists and pacifists. Over time, it made its way step by step into the mainstream; Joschka Fischer, who served as foreign minister and vice chancellor, came from the Greens, and helped cement the party within the establishment.

But the Greens didn’t sell out; rather, their version of the political avant-garde helped form a new mainstream. German politics were once, and to some extent still are, dominated by old gray men and women. But it is the Greens, almost alone among the country’s political parties, who can speak with authenticity to and for the younger generations; among all but the oldest Germans, they come in first in the polls. The Greens have sprouted because they fit perfectly into a society in which unconventionality has become the norm.

Despite the trends, no one saw this coming. The Green Party leadership seems the most surprised by the prospect of a chancellor emerging from their own ranks. Yet others are also wondering: What is behind Germany’s Greenquake?

The first part of the explanation is easy. Last year, Germany witnessed the highest average temperatures since record-keeping began and the most arid summer most citizens could remember. It felt like a climate change turning point: After years of abstract talk, we were finally living through the new, ugly reality. The climate question is not just about angry activists worrying about the future of the planet: A majority of Germans today demand fundamental policy changes to confront climate change. Other parties have taken on the challenge as well, but the Greens have managed to make the fight against climate change their unique selling point.

Still, the astonishing rise of the Green party has another, deeper reason. Maybe it is best described as Merkel dissipation syndrome.

In the public eye, Angela Merkel, though still chancellor, has practically abdicated political leadership since December, when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer took over leadership of the ruling Christian Democrats. It’s only in Ms. Merkel’s absence that Germans realize now how different she is from her party — an easy mistake, because she has led the center right since taking office 14 years ago. But Ms. Merkel did not stand for conservatism. In fact, she was the greenest chancellor Germany has ever had, driven by moral convictions, even as she did so with the air of a soberly rational physicist. Call it Merkelism.

It took the chancellor only days after the nuclear meltdown in Fukushima, Japan, to announce that Germany would phase out nuclear energy completely. A similar impetus informed her decision not to close Germany’s borders in 2015 after the European asylum system broke down, and to allow in more than a million migrants and refugees.

Determined yet empathic. Altruistic yet not naïve. Daring yet prudent, Ms. Merkel came to embody the self-image a majority of Germans craved. But it would also be fair to say that during her reign, the German people changed more than did the so-called people’s party — the nickname of the Christian Democrats. The public has become considerably greener thanks in part to her.

Now with Ms. Merkel on the way out, the public is not going to stick with the Christian Democrats. The one party coming closest to Merkelism is — you guessed it — the Green party.

But are the Greens really up the task? Many new supporters may soon feel disenchanted. The party, intended as an opposition force, will find it hard to digest its own quick growth and sudden burden of responsibility.

[y66]

Good story: What Really Happened to Malaysia’s Missing Airplane

[y66]

From another fascinating conversation with Tyler Cowen. This one is with Hal Varian.

Quote

COWEN: Does tenure still make economic sense? It doesn’t seem to on paper, right?

VARIAN: Yeah. I think it’s going to get more and more difficult because there’s now this big push for enlarging educational access. What does that mean? It means you have to have more capacity in the universities to handle a greater number of students.

So you’re going to see a situation where there’ll be a variety of roles, not just professor tenured and professor nontenured. There might be people that are doing various kinds of intermediary activities as well. Say, tutors, is an example.

COWEN: Last question. Let’s say a very smart 18-year-old comes up to you and says they want to have a career in both economics and tech, but they’re not exactly sure what they want to be. And they want advice from you. Other than the obvious, “Work hard. Go to a good school” — or whatever — what would you tell that person? They say, “I want to be the next Hal Varian.” In some manner.

VARIAN: I would say get the basic skills down. Maybe that’s obvious. Get the coding down. Get the design down. Get the basic economics down.

But then you really want to exercise your creativity. That is, don’t just take the first way of looking at something or the conventional way of looking at something, but try to step back and see what the bigger picture is. Now, most of the time that’ll be a big flop. But every now and then, you’ll hit something that’s new and exciting and novel, and, of course, that’s a great feeling to be able to do that.

[y66]

Some stuff for which prices have outpaced wages from Noah Smith

[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2019-June-05, 17:06, said:

Thought experiment:

You need a life-saving surgery. Would you:

A) Prefer to have a single-pay insurance and allow a government worker to make a decision for you based on predetermined protocols?
B) Prefer private insurance and have CEO Stephen Miller chose for you, with his income tied to the cost of your surgery?

By now the entire world, or at least the entire WC, knows that I am 80. I have been genetically lucky and, despite various acts of personal stupidity, I still am in decent health. But over the last ten years or so I have spent more time with doctors than in the entire preceding 70 years. So I have some direct experience. The answer to your question is clear-cut, my choice is C), I wish to have significant control. I have found the medical community itself to be difficult to deal with, often not what I would hope for. Sometimes a person has to get pushy. When this occurs, then insurance issues arise as well. I have Medicare, and I have private insurance. Both can be bureaucratically frustrating to deal with, but Medicare has an absolute lock on first place in that department.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2019-July-17, 08:00, said:

By now the entire world, or at least the entire WC, knows that I am 80. I have been genetically lucky and, despite various acts of personal stupidity, I still am in decent health. But over the last ten years or so I have spent more time with doctors than in the entire preceding 70 years. So I have some direct experience. The answer to your question is clear-cut, my choice is C), I wish to have significant control. I have found the medical community itself to be difficult to deal with, often not what I would hope for. Sometimes a person has to get pushy. When this occurs, then insurance issues arise as well. I have Medicare, and I have private insurance. Both can be bureaucratically frustrating to deal with, but Medicare has an absolute lock on first place in that department.

Unless you are part of the 1% of the 1%, choice C is unavailable.

[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2019-July-17, 08:19, said:

Unless you are part of the 1% of the 1%, choice C is unavailable.

Everything is a matter of degree. I am not part of the 1% of the 1% , not part of the 1 %, not part of the 10%, but I have some control. I don't expect to have significantly more control, I would like it but I don't expect it, but I would resist anything that would reduce whatever control I do have. Having some cash on hand, far short of wealth, can be useful but it is not the only thing. There was an issue some eight years ago where getting a straight answer from Medicare was simply not possible so I said "Let's do it, if Medicare doesn't pay I will" We did it and Medicare paid. Other instances are perhaps less clear cut, but there have been many of them to some degree or another, often not directly about money. The self-confidence of doctors often far exceeds their ability. I would expect that just about anyone of my age has numerous experiences that they could bring up. Bureaucracy can lead to passive acceptance. When your health is at stake, passive acceptance is a very bad idea.

Added: In case anyone thinks that I am being too critical of anyone, I have known doctors who need medical attention.If you go by what they actually do, it/s clear that they think as I do. Of course they have more knowledge to guide their actions, but act they do. They do not just go along with whatever happens.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2019-July-17, 10:37, said:

When your health is at stake, passive acceptance is a very bad idea.

Having been a nurse, I agree wholeheartedly. My sister-in-law was recently diagnosed with colon cancer, and after the doctor said they had to wait for the biopsy results, I urged her not to wait and to find a surgeon immediately as the tumor would have to be removed no matter what. End story: she did and was able to schedule surgery within 2-3 weeks and is now recovering nicely with a 90% chance of no recurrence.

But as far as govenment insurance decisions versus private insurance companies, I would rather have the weight and strength of the government on my side and a law saying I have to be accepted with pre-existing conditions than have some guy like Steve Mnuchin making those insurance determinations for me.

I believe the problems you are describing are correctable within the Medicare system.

[y66]

From When N.Y.C. Is Your Gym: Meet the Athletes Redefining Fitness in the City’s Parks by James Thomas at NYT:

Quote

The key to doing well in a pull-up contest is rhythm. Let the body set the tempo: the downbeat of the chin clearing the bar, the kick drum of tension in the shoulder blades. Keep that beat, that timing, until weariness sets in.

This is how Leticia Duran, 29, wins trophies, and how she mustered her first 20 smooth ascents on a summer afternoon at World’s Fair Playground in Flushing Meadows-Corona Park.

Ms. Duran was training for the 20th annual Pull-Up Park Jam, New York’s longest-running outdoor calisthenics competition.

She has placed first in the women’s class for the past two years, leading the field through grueling sets of pull-ups, squats, sit-ups, push-ups and muscle-ups — explosive hoists above the bar.

For Ms. Duran and the fitness-minded people who’ve built a community in New York City’s public parks, the Pull-Up Park Jam (call it the “Pup-Jay” for short) is one in a series of cherished summer events.

Quote

“These people are special,” said Doc. “They’re not special because they were born with certain gifts. They’re special because they believe that if they continue to do certain things, they’ll be better.”

At 64, Willie Washington is one of the regulars at Marcus Garvey, a park made famous by the seminal Bartendaz collective. Mr. Washington began calisthenics 20 years ago, seeking relief from the side effects of his arthritis drugs.

“The most important exercise to do is the stomach,” he said. “You know why? The stomach involves everything. Walking, talking, running.”

Quote

“There could be no one in the park who knows you. But once they see how much heart you have on that bar, how much you push, what you’re giving — they’ll cheer you on,” he said.

“It does something to you. You catch goosebumps, and you push out that next rep.”

[Winstonm]

The 50th anniversary of Woodstock has been moved to Maryland - to be closer to Kenberg?