[farrnbach]

in 1th and 3rd seat, 4S
in 2nd I may block out p, so 1S is not completely out of discussion, but I#d prefer 4S

[VM1973]

 billw55, on 2011-August-04, 06:30, said:

Since you seem to be big on math, I expect you can make a pretty close estimate of the odds that the ♠AK will cash when defending a suit contract. Please do so and let us know the results.

Sure I could do that, but really that wouldn't tell us much. Looking at the hand in question, for example, let's assume that LHO bids some number of hearts (based on his hand containing 5♥ and 1♠ and outside cards).

You could say, "Well, the ♠AK aren't two defensive tricks because he has a singleton..." but don't jump to conclusions. Assuming your partner leads a spade and it goes ♠K, ♠A (ruffed) then the declarer has already been tapped and on discovering the 4-1 heart break he's in a spot of trouble.

So you see, even if I did calculate the chance of both honors cashing, it wouldn't mean as much as you think it would.

[G_R__E_G]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-04, 08:43, said:

we would get a better response by just polling a large number of people (let's say the subscriber base of Bridge World) and getting their opinion and averaging it as compared to consulting an expert.

Or maybe Mike could just poll some of the other participants at the Bermuda Bowl when he's there this Fall.

[JLOGIC]

 mikeh, on 2011-August-03, 18:24, said:

The forum here isn't of the calibre of the MSC in the Bridge World, but we've got some pretty fair players here. I could easily see players like gnasher and frances being on the MSC panel and it's only a matter of time, and his willingness, before Justin is on it, not to mention a couple of the less frequent posters. And the 'lesser' lights here include some very thoughtful players with wide experiences, which will include far more than just the hands they've played.

I am already on it fwiw, not sure when my answers will appear, I think when you answer them they are like 2 years in advance or something crazy, so maybe my debut has not been in print.

[mikeh]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-04, 08:43, said:

Well this portion of the thread is really veering quite far from the point at hand and into the realm of epistemology, which is the philosophy concerned with the nature and scope of knowledge. I'm afraid I cannot agree with your assessment.

Firstly, I would refer you to http://en.wikipedia....isdom_of_Crowds and I submit that we would get a better response by just polling a large number of people (let's say the subscriber base of Bridge World) and getting their opinion and averaging it as compared to consulting an expert.

Secondly, I disagree that your experience with 100,000 or so hands (or having seen this hand or hands like it before) counts for much for reasons adequately documented on my blog for example http://scienceisbs.b...ang-theory.html and independently at http://faculty.unlv....1/Induction.htm

Personally I would enjoy arguing the finer points of the Hempel's paradox (see http://en.wikipedia....i/Raven_paradox ) but I rather suspect you wouldn't so I will simply close my epistle by relating this story.

I was at the Bridge Academy in Tarzana one day and there was some sort of hubbub about a director's call and the right decision and an appeal the details of which I never found out. But suffice it to say the auction had gone:

1 minor-Pass-Pass-1NT and then something had gone awry, but the the guy in charge there (named Jay Brown) asked a visitor to the club what he thought that bid should mean. He replied that it should show 15-18 with a stopper in the suit.

Now I will tell you that I think that's a pretty lousy opinion and I expressed that at the moment he said it to which Jay said, "You can't criticize his opinion. That's (insert some name of some guy who was apparently an expert on something but I don't remember his name and it didn't mean anything to me anyway)!"

Just because someone is an expert doesn't make them right.

wow...you really think you are something! I would never have known what epistemology meant had you not so kindly given me a definition....oh...maybe not

If you actually understand any of the logic that underlies philosophy, I would expect you to recognize the flaws in your posts. Since it is self-evident that you do not, then I suspect that you are someone who learns the definitions of words but never their meaning.

Happy trolling.

[JLOGIC]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-04, 08:43, said:

Just because someone is an expert doesn't make them right.

Of course, and appeal to authority and blah blah. I am with you normally on that, people do this too often.

However, I do think that general expert consensus is a good metric for hands that are straight up judgement questions such as a hand like this. It is impossible to just use logic and figure out what is the best tactic on a hand like this, for instance giving example hands or whatever will just be inadequate. I think even a simulation will be very difficult on this hand, guaging how the opponents will react or what might happen is just too hard/subjective.

I think arguably experience is the best way to judge the right tact on hands like this, and collective experience of experts is useful for this scenario. Even more important is how strongly people feel, if experts are split or one thinks one is a little bit better or whatever, that's one thing, if a large majority feel strongly about their choice, that is *likely* to be right. Of course they could be wrong, but I don't think there's a better thing to go on for something like this.

Obviously the sample size is pretty small here, and it would be better to poll a larger number of people, and if you have access to them that would be great. I know you don't know me or have any reason to trust my intellectual honesty, but I feel that I know a lot of expert players and it would be a near unanimous 4S opener at favorable vul. I really have no interest in being right or wrong or whatever in this argument, and you don't have to take what I just said as true, but I am very confident in it if that means anything. And as I said, that doesn't make it necessarily right, but imo it makes it likely to be right, and is the best metric we have.

Many situations in bridge are better suited for analysis and logic rather than experience of others (like should I bid slam here given the info I have, what should I shift to at trick 2, etc), but I think this is a classic one where the latter is likely better than the former.

[mikeh]

 JLOGIC, on 2011-August-04, 09:23, said:

I am already on it fwiw, not sure when my answers will appear, I think when you answer them they are like 2 years in advance or something crazy, so maybe my debut has not been in print.

I let my subscription lapse a little more than a year ago, so I wouldn't have seen your comments anyway. Maybe I'll re-subscribe

Anyway, congratulations....it's not as big a deal as some of your achievements, but it is a fine compliment.

[VM1973]

Well I've gone through the forum and this is what I've found:

Cyberyeti: 4S
mck4711: 4S or Pass
jmcw: 3S or 4S
daveharty: 4S
Nigel: 4S / 1S
Phil: 4S
gwnn: 4S / 3S
wyman: 4S
VM1973: Pass / 1S
mikeh: 4S
wank: 7NT
the hog: 4S
Bill's partner: 3S
Bill: 1S
ahydra: 4S
Mr.Ace: 4S
Jlogic: 4S
farrnbach: 1S

So the score is:
4S = 13
1S = 4
3S = 3
Pass = 2
7NT = 1

Have I missed or misunderstood anyone's opinion?

[the hog]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-04, 18:23, said:

Well I've gone through the forum and this is what I've found:

Cyberyeti: 4S
mck4711: 4S or Pass
jmcw: 3S or 4S
daveharty: 4S
Nigel: 4S / 1S
Phil: 4S
gwnn: 4S / 3S
wyman: 4S
VM1973: Pass / 1S
mikeh: 4S
wank: 7NT
the hog: 4S
Bill's partner: 3S
Bill: 1S
ahydra: 4S
Mr.Ace: 4S
Jlogic: 4S
farrnbach: 1S

So the score is:
4S = 13
1S = 4
3S = 3
Pass = 2
7NT = 1

Have I missed or misunderstood anyone's opinion?

And your point is? I would love to have you play against me and pass hands like this. You would make life sooooooooooooo easy.

[G_R__E_G]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-04, 18:23, said:

Have I missed or misunderstood anyone's opinion?

Yep, you seemed to have misunderstood your own opinion. Read your first post again. For the record my first choice is 4S, second choice 1S and third choice is 3S.

[jdeegan]

4♠ I was always taught to play all 7-4 hands in game. This one is a good 7-4 hand, and since pard passed, they likely have 4♥. Bidd'em up.

[gordontd]

 VM1973, on 2011-August-02, 11:34, said:

I think you should pass. As you have the master suit, it's hard to imagine how you could get shut out of the bidding. Additionally with solid spades like that, 3NT could be a possibility - rating to outscore 4♠ which is important at MPs. In 3rd seat a preempt would be almost automatic but even then I see no reason to go beyond 3♠.

Pass - 10
2♠ - 8 (Especially if playing Ogust)
1♠ - 6
3♠ - 6
4♠ - 2

No-one seems to have mentioned the old story of a (supposedly strong) player passing a hand like this and, as all four of them were putting their hands back in the board, asking his partner what he had held. "Oh, just three bare aces". I guess they deserved each other.

btw What is the Ogust response that shows a solid seven-card suit?

[the hog]

 gordontd, on 2011-August-05, 02:33, said:

No-one seems to have mentioned the old story of a (supposedly strong) player passing a hand like this and, as all four of them were putting their hands back in the board, asking his partner what he had held. "Oh, just three bare aces". I guess they deserved each other.

btw What is the Ogust response that shows a solid seven-card suit?

John Collings was "supposedly" a strong player?

[Scoti]

Yes, 1 spade regardless of vulnerability. Why would you preempt when you have spades and can overcall any other bid anyway. If ops want to go to 5 they are probably set and your p will know to lead a spade. Open one to find out what P has for points and suit, lest HE get preempted by ops. (Knowing you opened he may be able to overcall them whereas he may not be so inclined if they open with a preempt.) You can know you can always go to 4 sp anyway if needed, at no more risk than opening at that. Likewise you need not worry about being an hcp short if P limit bids, since the hand indicates up to a 4 level bid anyway. And you are looking at a potential slam hand here. You need info.

[gwnn]

VM1973: you did not misunderstand my post, but I misunderstood the opening post - when white vs red I would always bid 4♠

[gordontd]

 the hog, on 2011-August-05, 03:10, said:

John Collings was "supposedly" a strong player?

He's one of the players I've heard it attributed to, but not the only one.

[the hog]

 Scoti, on 2011-August-05, 03:12, said:

Yes, 1 spade regardless of vulnerability. Why would you preempt when you have spades and can overcall any other bid anyway. If ops want to go to 5 they are probably set and your p will know to lead a spade. Open one to find out what P has for points and suit, lest HE get preempted by ops. (Knowing you opened he may be able to overcall them whereas he may not be so inclined if they open with a preempt.) You can know you can always go to 4 sp anyway if needed, at no more risk than opening at that. Likewise you need not worry about being an hcp short if P limit bids, since the hand indicates up to a 4 level bid anyway. And you are looking at a potential slam hand here. You need info.

Why would you pre empt? Because opening 1S and bidding 4 later in the auction shows a better hand for most players. I guess opening 1 on this and then bidding 4 later is ok if you are playing with yourself.

[Scoti]

Then you preempt Yourself out of knowing if you have slam chances since your p Will think you have a weak hand to open 4 spades. This is not a weak hand. Not to anyone who uses distribution counts. But I do agree with you that the hand can bid by itself. (Which is exactly what a preempter is doing, taking his P out of the equation and guessing he might make 4 or need to stop ops from contracting, so it seems strange for you to be the champion of P rights, lol. The difference being, he is taking a shot in the dark that is not necessary to make) . Bidding 4 later "showing a better hand" makes no difference here since opener captains this hand, not P. Which is really what you are objecting to. Not opener "playing with yourself" as he would be if he opened 4 spades.

[bill1157]

I wasn't necessarily in favor of opening 1♠, but was interested as to whether that was a serious option. People do, after all, open with 9 points sometimes with something like: AJxxx.Axxxxx.x.xx. I suppose that hand has two places to play etc. so maybe it is better for 1S versus the hand in question.
Having opened 1S, you would not jump to 4S on the second round obviously.

Bill

[VM1973]

 billw55, on 2011-August-04, 06:30, said:

Since you seem to be big on math, I expect you can make a pretty close estimate of the odds that the ♠AK will cash when defending a suit contract. Please do so and let us know the results.

According to my calculations the suit combination in question will produce, on average, 1.223 defensive tricks.

That doesn't count trump promotions, forcing defenses or other possibilities.