[jules101]

I'm looking for tips on when to upgrade a balanced 14-count to a strong NT.


1) What advice can you offer?

2) Does venerability or seat affect your decision?

3) Do either or these hands qualify for an upgrade to a 15-17 strong NT hand?

i) ♠Ax ♥Axx ♦KQJxx ♣Txx

ii) ♠Ax ♥Kxx ♦AKTxx ♣Txx

[jjbrr]

In general I think it's better for beginner and intermediate players to just bid what they have and become better at understanding auctions and their implications. When you get good at bidding, you get good at judging when to bend or break the rules. It comes, imo, naturally and organically.

With that said, I play a style with most partners where we frequently upgrade, so I would open both of the examples 1NT.

[Vampyr]

Both of the example hands have a good 5-card suit, and such a hand nearly always qualifies for upgrading. Failing that, very well combined honours and intermediates may be good enough.

[Zelandakh]

A good rule of thumb is to count a decent 5 card suit as 1/2 a point. Downgrade unsupported queens or jacks, upgrade aces and supported tens (and good honour concentration in general). Both of your example hands are worth the upgrade because they contain at least 2 things to upgrade and nothing to downgrade.

[nigel_k]

I wouldn't adjust for vulnerability, position or form of scoring. It is too early in the auction and you need to just describe what you have so accurate decisions can be made later on.

Here are some factors to consider:

1) Aces are undervalued by the 4321 point count - slightly undervalued if you play in NT and seriously undervalued if you play in a suit. Other honours are correspondingly overvalued. IMO the correct ratio is something like A=4.4, K=2.8, Q=1.6, J=0.8, 10=0.4. You don't need to use those exact numbers but it gives you an idea. For 15-17 hands, two aces are above average so a slightt upgrade and one ace is a slight downgrade.

2) Honour combinations are key, especially for minor honours. Having a jack or ten associated with other honours rather than on its own increases the value a lot, e.g. KQJx xxx is much better than KQxx Jxx.

3) Honours are better in long suits because they help promote small cards into winners.

4) Hand shape also matters (5332 > 4432 > 4333) but IMO this difference is possibly overstated.

Your two examples are clear upgrades.

[kenrexford]

FWIW, here's what I do:

We are assuming a 14-count.

First, I count the number of "controls" (A=2, K=1). I then multiple the number of controls by 3.333. (This is easier than you think.) If that number is 16.6667 or more, then I think upgrade. I do this process for all hands and all strengths. But, to consider the specific issue of a 14-count, the math is easy -- do I have 5+ "controls?" (The long math helps for 2NT openings and other sequences, but you can skip that part if you want.)

Of your two examples, one has 5 controls and one has 6 controls. So far, both look good.

If the control count is 6, I clearly open 1NT with a 14-count.

With exactly 5 controls, I would look to whether my hand has additional features of note. These include 10's and 9's (especially internal) and long suits. This is an imprecise evaluation, but it sort of runs along these lines. What I look for is a reason to NOT open 1NT if I have 5 controls. If I have even a single under-evaluated 10 in a tenace (attached to an honor), this is a clear positive. A stray 10 or an attached 9 (attached to an honor) is a 1/2 positive. 4-3-3-3 pattern is a -1 negative, and 4-4-3-2 with one of the 4-card suits honorless is a 1/2 negative. If the positives and negatives equal out or are net positives, I open 1NT. If the net is negative, I do not.

So:

Any 5-3-3-2 with 5 controls will have a full positive and at most a half negative and will thus be upgraded.
A 4-4-3-2 with 5 controls will always be ungraded unless (1) one of the 4-card suits is honorless and (2) there are no stray 10's or attached 9's.
A 4-3-3-3 with 5 controls will not be upgraded unless I have at least one attached 10, two stray 10's, a stray 10 and an attached 9, or two attached 9's. If the 4-card suit is honorless, which is another 1/2 negative, then I need another attached 10, attached 9, or stray 10.

By the way, if you do upgrade 14's, you should also upgrade some 17's to open a minor (or a major) and then jump to 2NT. I use the same analysis, which ends up being to look for 7 controls or the upgradable 6-control hands (using all of the strays and attacheds analysis). However, now the math kicks in somewhat. As 16.666 is 2.666 away from 14 but 20 is 3 away from 17, the encouragement to upgrade 17's seems stronger, IMO. Hence, I would analyze 6-control hands with a pre-1/2 positive.

[mikeh]

it is a mistake to consider only A/K/Q/J values when deciding to upgrade. Consider A32 A32 KQ543 J2 and A108 A109 KQ1087 J9. These two hands are significantly different in strength yet the Work point count values them the same.

I disagree with the poster who claims that 4321 overvalues Kings....while I haven't done the study and doubt that my math is good enough to even try, I accept, as consistent with my subjective experience, that both Aces and Kings are undervalued and Queens and jacks are overvalued in the traditional count method.

So I upgrade hands that have a 5 card suit, and I like 10's in my suits, especially my 5 card suit, and I prefer a hand that holds few, if any, short suit Queens and jacks. Queens and Jacks in our long suit shouldn't, imo, be downgraded in the same fashion as if they were in our short suits.

In addition, combinations of honours, especially honours with 10s, often play 'up' compared to honours supported only by small spots.

As you can probably see, I view the decision as to whether to upgrade as depending on a variety of factors, and the particular blend that prevails on any given hand won't necessarily be the same on the next hand.

Vulnerability doesn't enter into it from my perspective.....when opening a strong notrump, one should start with the presumption that the hand probably belongs to us, and hence one focuses on the playing strength of the hand for constructive purposes, rather than the downside risk of failing.

[Phil]

kenrexford, on 2011-October-03, 14:00, said:

FWIW, here's what I do:

We are assuming a 14-count.

First, I count the number of "controls" (A=2, K=1). I then multiple the number of controls by 3.333.

(snip)

So typical....

jjbrr's explanation was clear and concise. A B/I should stop reading there.

[jmcw]

Lots of good advice above. I like mikeh approach.
Keep in mind you will have to play up to your "new" evaluation methods. GL

[kenrexford]

Phil, on 2011-October-03, 15:16, said:

So typical....

jjbrr's explanation was clear and concise. A B/I should stop reading there.

The abridged version, for the fearful:

FWIW, here's what I do:

We are assuming a 14-count.

First, do I have 5+ "controls?" (Ace = 2, K = 1.)

If the control count is 6, I open 1NT with a 14-count.

With exactly 5 controls,

1. I open all 5332 hands
2. I open all 4432 hands unless one of the two four-card suits has no honors AND I have no 10's AND I have no 9's in the same suit as an honor.
3. I do not open 4-3-3-3 hands with the 4-card suit having at least one honor unless I have at least one 10 attached to an honor, two 10's, one 10 and a 9 attached to an honor, or two 9's attached to honors.
4. I do not open 4-3-3-3 hands with no honors in the 4-card suit unless I have enough 10's and 9's to otherwise open the 4-3-3-3 PLUS one more 10 or 9 somewhere.

[kenrexford]

OK -- super-abridged version:

Open all 14's with six controls.

With 5 controls:

Open all 5332's
Open most 4432's unless one of your long suits sucks AND you have no 10's or 9's that look useful
Don't open 4333 unless you have really good body (working 10's and 9's around here and there).

[cloa513]

kenrexford, on 2011-October-03, 14:00, said:

FWIW, here's what I do:

We are assuming a 14-count.

First, I count the number of "controls" (A=2, K=1). I then multiple the number of controls by 3.333. (This is easier than you think.) If that number is 16.6667 or more, then I think upgrade. I do this process for all hands and all strengths. But, to consider the specific issue of a 14-count, the math is easy -- do I have 5+ "controls?" (The long math helps for 2NT openings and other sequences, but you can skip that part if you want.)

Of your two examples, one has 5 controls and one has 6 controls. So far, both look good.

If the control count is 6, I clearly open 1NT with a 14-count.

With exactly 5 controls, I would look to whether my hand has additional features of note. These include 10's and 9's (especially internal) and long suits. This is an imprecise evaluation, but it sort of runs along these lines. What I look for is a reason to NOT open 1NT if I have 5 controls. If I have even a single under-evaluated 10 in a tenace (attached to an honor), this is a clear positive. A stray 10 or an attached 9 (attached to an honor) is a 1/2 positive. 4-3-3-3 pattern is a -1 negative, and 4-4-3-2 with one of the 4-card suits honorless is a 1/2 negative. If the positives and negatives equal out or are net positives, I open 1NT. If the net is negative, I do not.

So:

Any 5-3-3-2 with 5 controls will have a full positive and at most a half negative and will thus be upgraded.
A 4-4-3-2 with 5 controls will always be ungraded unless (1) one of the 4-card suits is honorless and (2) there are no stray 10's or attached 9's.
A 4-3-3-3 with 5 controls will not be upgraded unless I have at least one attached 10, two stray 10's, a stray 10 and an attached 9, or two attached 9's. If the 4-card suit is honorless, which is another 1/2 negative, then I need another attached 10, attached 9, or stray 10.

By the way, if you do upgrade 14's, you should also upgrade some 17's to open a minor (or a major) and then jump to 2NT. I use the same analysis, which ends up being to look for 7 controls or the upgradable 6-control hands (using all of the strays and attacheds analysis). However, now the math kicks in somewhat. As 16.666 is 2.666 away from 14 but 20 is 3 away from 17, the encouragement to upgrade 17's seems stronger, IMO. Hence, I would analyze 6-control hands with a pre-1/2 positive.

I would have thought better to upgrade finessing strength than control strength- control strength sure helps with running a partner's suit but finessing AQ, Kx, AQJ gives those extra chances especially on the lead.

[MrAce]

jules101, on 2011-October-03, 07:22, said:

3) Do either or these hands qualify for an upgrade to a 15-17 strong NT hand?

i) ♠Ax ♥Axx ♦KQJxx ♣Txx

ii) ♠Ax ♥Kxx ♦AKTxx ♣Txx

Yes, both.

[ahydra]

I think I'd only upgrade the first one for some reason. My "upgrading feeling" is built-in now so I find it hard to analyse why exactly Perhaps I prefer KQJxx to AKTxx - first is more likely to give four tricks. Perhaps I don't like the Kxx.

I definitely like to upgrade when I've got nice suits (decent 5-carder, honours in the long suits, touching honour sequences like J10, 109) and nothing wasted (no Jxx, Qx). I don't upgrade 4333s unless they're very good. So since I play a weak NT (12-14):

AJ10x Kx K109x 10xx - always open 1NT, two nice honour sequences & nothing wasted.
AJ10x Kx Kxxx 10xx - normally would open 1NT, perhaps not if I was vulnerable and opps were NV.
A10xx Kx Kxxx J10x - same as previous
Axxx Kx K109x Jxx - only open 1NT in 3rd seat NV or 4th
Axxx Kx K9xx Jxx - would pass

ahydra

[jjbrr]

I'd argue strong no trumps are slightly different from weak NTs. I'm more inclined to upgrade a random 11 count because 1NT is such a powerful opening for our side, especially when we're a tad weaker. But opposite a strong NT, I expect partner to jump to 3NT with most 9 counts, so I need a good reason to upgrade.

Perhaps I'm biased by my personal style, where I open most 11 counts.

I also agree that 4333s need a very good reason to upgrade, so in practice I rarely do it.

[Vampyr]

ahydra, on 2011-October-04, 16:47, said:

So since I play a weak NT (12-14):

AJ10x Kx K109x 10xx - always open 1NT, two nice honour sequences & nothing wasted.
AJ10x Kx Kxxx 10xx - normally would open 1NT, perhaps not if I was vulnerable and opps were NV.
A10xx Kx Kxxx J10x - same as previous
Axxx Kx K109x Jxx - only open 1NT in 3rd seat NV or 4th
Axxx Kx K9xx Jxx - would pass

Do you disclose 12-14?