[Trumpace]

You are in 3S, on a trump 7 lead.

Lead S7

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Plan the play.

Adv/+ please refrain from spoiling too early (but please feel free to comment if you think this is inappropriate for B/I, or has some flaws).

[Antrax]

Is there a 100% line? I can see how to make when clubs are 4-2 with the K offside and the short hand having trump length if the short hand is E, but not W.

[Trumpace]

No, I don't think there is a 100% line.

Can you please post your line?

[Antrax]

I started to, but then realized it's bad if LHO returns a ♥ after winning the ♣K. I still don't see anything better than winning in dummy, playing low to ♣Q, planning to ruff the fourth club high in dummy or to discard one of dummy's hearts on a high club. The problem is if they switch to hearts after the club finesse loses and RHO gets to ruff when I lead a club towards the ace, I still lose five tricks

[Trumpace]

Antrax, on 2012-January-21, 01:10, said:

I started to, but then realized it's bad if LHO returns a ♥ after winning the ♣K. I still don't see anything better than winning in dummy, playing low to ♣Q, planning to ruff the fourth club high in dummy or to discard one of dummy's hearts on a high club. The problem is if they switch to hearts after the club finesse loses and RHO gets to ruff when I lead a club towards the ace, I still lose five tricks

I agree. Playing low to CQ seems best. This allows you to cater to many CK onside, as well as many CK offside, when lefty continues trumps (which might be likely defense), allowing you to pitch and ruff a heart in dummy, in some cases.

You can't expect defense to always be double dummy accurate, and if they do find it, bad luck.

I was going to title this as "Not all finesses are the same" but thought it might be too much of a give away.

There are other ways of playing the suit, like running the CJ or playing toward the CJ, but low to Q seems the best, allowing playing to the J and then towards Ax, giving RHO two losing options. Even if LHO always found a heart switch, playing low to Q is still better than low to J (for eg, singleton K with RHO). I just found it interesting enough to post it here. (Of course, I probably could have modified the hand a bit to make it clearer, like maybe giving declarer Kx of hearts and AQ of diamonds instead of Ax and xx)

[Antrax]

If we're going to allow the defense to make mistakes, they could also go wrong by cashing their diamond tricks before continuing trumps, then you can abandon the original line and play on dummy's diamonds

[Fluffy]

Running the Jack is very bad play, since it gives away the overtrick when RHO has 2 black dubletons containing ♣K and gains nothing.

However playing low club to the jack is a very strong line. If we assume ♠7 is a doubleton and LHO would lead a lower spot from 3 (most people tend to even when it doesn´t matter)

-we will always make if LHO has 2 clubs (after conceding ♣K, we draw 1 rond of trumps, and then ruff a club high, RHO has the last trump and can´t do anything)
-We will always make if LHO has 3 clubs obviously
-We will make if LHO has 4 clubs containing the King

It would even be better if we had an extra entry to dummy like ♦A playing 4♠ because then after losing to ♣K if RHO returns a trump, we can cash ♣A get to dummy with ♦A and play a club to hand wich makes even agaisnt ♣Kx in rightys.




The key thing to remember on this hand is that when you have 5-3 trumps, and 4-3 side fit, the trick you want your ace to win on the 4-3 fit is the second of the suit. You can lose the first with no problem, but you need to be in control for the second most of the time.

[Trumpace]

Antrax, on 2012-January-21, 04:36, said:

If we're going to allow the defense to make mistakes, they could also go wrong by cashing their diamond tricks before continuing trumps, then you can abandon the original line and play on dummy's diamonds

You are not relying on the mistake. Just that, the chances of success of your line go up, because of that (very real) possibility.

[Trumpace]

Fluffy, on 2012-January-21, 05:18, said:

Running the Jack is very bad play, since it gives away the overtrick when RHO has 2 black dubletons containing ♣K and gains nothing.

However playing low club to the jack is a very strong line. If we assume ♠7 is a doubleton and LHO would lead a lower spot from 3 (most people tend to even when it doesn´t matter)

-we will always make if LHO has 2 clubs (after conceding ♣K, we draw 1 rond of trumps, and then ruff a club high, RHO has the last trump and can´t do anything)
-We will always make if LHO has 3 clubs obviously
-We will make if LHO has 4 clubs containing the King

It would even be better if we had an extra entry to dummy like ♦A playing 4♠ because then after losing to ♣K if RHO returns a trump, we can cash ♣A get to dummy with ♦A and play a club to hand wich makes even agaisnt ♣Kx in rightys.




The key thing to remember on this hand is that when you have 5-3 trumps, and 4-3 side fit, the trick you want your ace to win on the 4-3 fit is the second of the suit. You can lose the first with no problem, but you need to be in control for the second most of the time.

Do you consider it better than low to Q?

[Fluffy]

if we assume ♠7 is a doubleton then yes clearly, since ♣K will 2/3 be with 4 cards rather than doubleton. but if they are 50-50 to be 2-3 or 3-2 then the low to queen is better because missdefences allow you to make when RHO has 2 clubs, and also it makes overtrick when RHO has a miracle ♠xx ♣Kx

[Phil]

Fluffy, on 2012-January-21, 15:56, said:

if we assume ♠7 is a doubleton then yes clearly, since ♣K will 2/3 be with 4 cards rather than doubleton. but if they are 50-50 to be 2-3 or 3-2 then the low to queen is better because missdefences allow you to make when RHO has 2 clubs, and also it makes overtrick when RHO has a miracle ♠xx ♣Kx

Knowing the entire auction would be nice, but I agree that West is more likely to hold the ♣K, not because I'm trying to reason something out of the trump spots, but the fact he led a trump in the 1st place.

[Trumpace]

Phil, on 2012-January-21, 16:10, said:

Knowing the entire auction would be nice, but I agree that West is more likely to hold the ♣K, not because I'm trying to reason something out of the trump spots, but the fact he led a trump in the 1st place.

Sorry, no bidding, as this wasn't actually played.

I am still not fully convinced playing low to J will be better, but which is better, does depend on your reading of LHO, I suppose.