[BunnyGo]

Hi all,

This was one of just two hands I got to declare on my night out in Boston with hrothgar. How would you plan the play from here? Do you agree with ducking the first spade?

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[Fluffy]

There is no alternative to ducking the spade, is it?

LHO is marked with a strong hand, so ♠KJ, and 2 aces, or ♠KJ, one ace and ♥Q, but if this is the case, LHO though his hand too strong to preempt, this means doubleton ♥Q is unlikelly.

I would go for the straightforward ♥K, ♥ to the jack line. If LHO has stiff ♥10 we might still score 11 tricks, we need LHO to win ♣A and ♦A on first tricks of the suit.

Play ♦Q, if taken by the ace and a spade is returned, win ♠A, and ruff a spade in hand. Next play ♣K and hope it is taken, if it is taken we are in good shape. We need to reduce our trumps to the same lenght as RHO, RHO has ♥Qx left and we have ♥A96, so win the return, and play ♦K and ruff a diamond in hand (if LHO is so kind of returning a spade we might not need this move, althou then we need that RHO still has a diamond left wich might not happen since he had 2 pitches on spades already).

If all went well, RHO has another club in his hand and ♥Qx. While we have ♥A9 in our hand. We play a club to dummy, and play diamonds untill RHO decides to ruff or is forced to do so because no more cards are left. When he does we overruff , draw the last trump and cash our remaining club if any.

If at any point the line fails and RHO ruffs ♠A or second diamond, we still have no problem winning the return, getting to hand and drawing the outstanding ♥Q to claim 10.

[BunnyGo]

Interesting thoughts Fluffy. I had thought this was a good problem for B/I players where they had to use the auction and lead to place the high cards. I'll put my solution in a spoiler below:

Spoiler

It's clear from the auction that LHO has most of the missing high cards (2 aces, queen of trump, and KJ of spades). He's then made the very awkward lead of low from KJxxxx which seems very wrong on this auction. In fact, this auction generally screams for a trump lead since we are probably short on strength and need to ruff stuff in dummy (with dummy's short trump). The fact that he didn't lead a trump should suggest that he has the queen.

This is where Fluffy and I have a difference of opinion: I decided to cater to him having either Qx or Qxx of hearts--even if I did follow fluffy's line and play small to the K it's a question of what to do when LHO plays the Q or the T (is he falsecarding or did he have a stiff).

So I led the J and let it ride. If LHO had covered, I'd hook RHO for the T of hearts next time. When LHO didn't cover from Qxx, it was easy to claim 11 tricks after that.

It turns out that LHO had a stiff small diamond and didn't lead it, which I don't really understand.

[Antrax]

14 HCP are at large, ♣A, ♠KJ ♦A and ♥Q. We must lose the two aces and thus must just make sure we lose at most one heart. I think the way to go about it is cash ♥K and then play another heart and cover whatever RHO plays. This loses if LHO has ♥Qx and can give RHO a spade ruff, but the other line (cash ♥AK) loses two hearts on 4-1 breaks (which I think are more likely since LHO has the spades) unless the Q or T are singletons.
Is this too simplistic?
[edit]
Apparently so. Is a 3-2 split in hearts still to be expected on this bidding?

[BunnyGo]

Antrax, on 2012-January-22, 11:45, said:

Is a 3-2 split in hearts still to be expected on this bidding?

Not necessarily, but what happens if LHO has either stiff T or stiff Q or QT tight. Say I play low towards the K:

1) He plays the Q. Is this a devious falsecard from QT tight or Q stiff? I'll (almost) always play him for Q stiff, but it's at least a worry.

2) He plays the T. Is this QT tight or T stiff. Dunno.

If I play the J and it's covered, I'll pay off to QT tight.

I dunno what's most likely, but the fact that he didn't lead hearts says to me that he probably has Q(x)(x). I think it's more likely that he has either Qx or Qxx than it is Q.

[cherdano]

I am not sure I would put that much stock into LHO not leading a trump. Dummy showed a good long suit, which argues for an aggressive lead to set up the defense's tricks before declarer sets up diamonds. Or maybe LHO has a singleton trump and doesn't like to lead that. Or maybe LHO just loves aggressive leads too much. Or he thinks "they didn't even try for NT".

I mean, if it were a 50-50 guess, obviously the lead would be the deciding factor, but here you are taking an anti-percentage line to begin with, and LHO has 7 vacant spots compared to RHO's 11.

[Fluffy]

♥Qxx is a good reason not ot lead trumps and not to lead shortness as well.

[phil_20686]

Book me in for the JH at trick 2.

This is obviously anti % a priori, but bidding 1s then 2s vul vs not should show a decent hand or a good spade suit, since his spade suit is poor I will give him all the outstanding HCP.

If lho covers the heart J I will hook the 9 on the way back.

The alternative is to assume that LHO has seven spades. There is some sense to this as leading away from KJxxxx into the opening bidder does not seem that sensible. leading the 9 from KJ98xxx hoping for a ruff and with the diamond ace as a reentry may be a decent gambit. I just dont think one would try it at MP.

[cherdano]

phil_20686, on 2012-January-23, 05:14, said:

This is obviously anti % a priori, but bidding 1s then 2s vul vs not should show a decent hand or a good spade suit, since his spade suit is poor I will give him all the outstanding HCP.

But having ♥Qxx doesn't make bidding 2♠ much better.
In real life it seems LHO was just bad, but if he wasn't, I think it's much more likely that he has heart shortness than ♥Qxx.