[bluecalm]

---

Imps.
1NT is disciplined 15-17, 14's are very rare.
Invites are solid which means partner almost surely doesn't have 16hcp for his 3H.

Your call ?
Would it change if we are vul or at matchpoints ?

[whereagles]

Close call, obviously. I would bid at imps and pass at MPs. Reason: unless pard has a totally unfit 15, game has chances once I know we have a fit.

[dwar0123]

Edit:
Actually I think partner already made a decision, 3♥ isn't invitational its preference. I think pass is right.

[Codo]

This is not the question, of course partner declined our invitation and we know this.
But our hand has become better, because we have a heart fit, so we need to look again.

I am with Nuno. 4 ♥ at imps, pass otherwise. And the descission is not close in a team event, but surely at mps.

[dwar0123]

Codo, on 2012-January-28, 06:09, said:

This is not the question, of course partner declined our invitation and we know this.
But our hand has become better, because we have a heart fit, so we need to look again.

I am with Nuno. 4 ♥ at imps, pass otherwise. And the descission is not close in a team event, but surely at mps.

How has our hand become better in a way that our partner wouldn't already be aware of when he decided not to bid 4♥.

[gordontd]

dwar0123, on 2012-January-28, 06:21, said:

How has our hand become better in a way that our partner wouldn't already be aware of when he decided not to bid 4♥.

Because we have two aces.

[Fluffy]

dwar0123, on 2012-January-28, 06:21, said:

How has our hand become better in a way that our partner wouldn't already be aware of when he decided not to bid 4♥.

Our bad hearts have improved. If partner has a working black doubleton and something like ♥Axx game could be on 3-2 hearts.

[aguahombre]

Not being smart enough to figure out at the table what percentage of hands where partner declines game might make game, I will stick with policy and not accept my own invite.

Is partner inclined toward passing 2NT with a 15 count which includes QXX, JXX, etc. of hearts where we can predict 3 trump losers with this dummy (and a good 3-2 break)? Mine isn't.

Actually, this hand looks better for 3NT if partner passes 2NT. Maybe my "pure judgement" action should have been Stayman instead of the transfer, if I wanted to make all the decisions from this side of the table.

This post has been edited by aguahombre: 2012-January-28, 10:37

[Phil]

Nothing inconsistent about 2N and then 4♥.

[MrAce]

I would have started stayman and bid 3 NT if pd didnt show 4♥ at imps.

Now that i invited and pd refused i will pass regretting my first invitation one more time. This is perfect way to ask for a double from opponents if there is bad splits and i cant see us handling this with this trump quality tbh.

Non vulnerable, the upsides of making game is reduced anyway.

[gnasher]

Partner also understands the value of a doubleton. In fact, he'll be better placed to judge how valuable it is, because he will be able to see whether he has a minor honour in the suit. With something like Kx AQx Kxxx Kxxx I'd expect him to have bid game himself. The fact that he hasn't suggests that he is 4333, has the wrong kind of doubleton, or has too many slow values.

Also, as MrAce points out, if trumps are bad we're likely to get doubled. That increases the odds required for bidding game.

[Fluffy]

my partners tend to pass 2NT with 4333

[RunemPard]

I think that this hand is worthy of a 3NT try. My reasoning is that I have help in every suit outside of hearts, where I have nothing of point value other than 5 long. I am not so sure that 4H will work, but, with a good holding 3NT will go. Have a feeling this is one of those hands where you can make 9 tricks in hearts or NT. If I am wrong, atleast I tried!

[mike777]

wow, I would have rebid 3nt in a flash over 2h and not bother to invite.

in any case I would bid 4h now given OP.

[phil_20686]

I mostly voted for 3N because I would have driven game over 1N, now that I know theres a heart fit I am driving game for sure, nice to be able to offer 3N, sometimes partners hearts are bad too and he is happy in 3N.

[bluecalm]

I am in 3NT camp. This hand was played by the friend of mine (quite a good player) and his choice was a pass which imo is a mistake.
If we are to believe dd simulations 3NT makes about 35% of the time (similar to 4H) and 3H makes 80% of the time. This alone makes 3NT +EV call at imps but imo it will make more than 35% of the time as defending is difficult, especially 1st lead.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-29, 16:35, said:

If we are to believe dd simulations ...

Why would we believe double-dummy simulations when we haven't seen the parameters?

[bluecalm]

Quote

Why would we believe double-dummy simulations when we haven't seen the parameters?

I used exactly 15hcp with exactly 3hearts. balanced without 5 spades (because area people don't open 1NT with 5M too often).
It shouldn't matter too much though if you add some details. The numbers will be in that ballpark.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-29, 17:06, said:

I used exactly 15hcp with exactly 3hearts. balanced without 5 spades (because area people don't open 1NT with 5M too often).
It shouldn't matter too much though if you add some details. The numbers will be in that ballpark.

It's not a matter of adding details: it's a question of removing a systemic bias.

With the given conditon that "invites are solid", opener should have bid game himself on some 15-counts, generally those with a useful doubleton and/or a source of tricks. These will, of course, tend to be the ones where game is more likely to make.

[nigel_k]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-29, 16:35, said:

If we are to believe dd simulations 3NT makes about 35% of the time (similar to 4H) and 3H makes 80% of the time. This alone makes 3NT +EV call at imps but imo it will make more than 35% of the time as defending is difficult, especially 1st lead.

If you are gaining 6 imps 35% of the time and losing 5 45% (80-35) of the time, that is -EV. You could also lose more than 5 if they double, which is quite likely when hearts don't break.

Also, double-dummy defence is probably a bit easier than double dummy declarer play when the contract is 3NT and the auction has revealed declarer's hand quite precisely.