inquiry, on 2012-May-13, 12:08, said:
like justin, i think partner needs three clubs to qj to have a chance here.
i am going to play partner for 6♥, 3♣, so the ♦ play could be from kx or a singleton. If was a singleton, a diamond back now kills the defense. IF i play a high diamond, he has only two diamond losers, if return a low diamond, he wins his nine, and again has only one diamond loser. So I must RETURN a spade if it was a singleton, this let partner win his spade honor (hopefully he has spade ak), cash the club queen (so no diamond ruff in dummy), and declarer is toast.
I am playing for something like this in partners hand...
♠AKx ♥KTxxxx ♦4 ♣QJx
if partner has instead ♦Kx for the low diamond, we need him to have something like
♠AK ♥KTxxxx ♦Kx ♣QJx,we get five tricks pretty much whatever I do.
if parnter held
♠Ax ♥KTxxxx ♦Kx ♣QJX, declarer always has probably misplayed by not unblocking spades and hooking me for the ♠J.
And of course, we can not have partner be 1-6-3-3 (low diamond from Kxx) or declarer will have a lot of spade tricks. So when the ♦J holds trick four, i guess i have to return a spade.
Thats also a good prediction (that pd may have stiff
♦) But then why pd didnt play trumps in different order, or why did not he bid 2
♠ with AKx spade and a side stiff ? But none of those are clear hints, so you may have a good case for playing back spade imo.
EDIT: if that was the case though, declarer could have made it with a different play. He could play 3rd
♣ instead of
♦ at trick 4. that pretty much gives away the shape of East ( 6
♥ +3
♣ and not bidding 2 spade he must have at most 3 spade....After 3rd club he cant go wrong i think.