[Phil]

Here's a play problem from Saturday:

---

The opening lead is the ♠5 (4th).

Plan the play.

[dkham]

I'm not an expert - but at the table I'd play the spade Jack, and if it wins finesse clubs. If it loses doesn't look good.

[ahydra]

dkham, on 2012-May-17, 09:29, said:

I'm not an expert - but at the table I'd play the spade Jack, and if it wins finesse clubs. If it loses doesn't look good.

I'd try this as well, though I wonder if things aren't quite as bad as they look due to the presence of the diamond 9 in dummy. Also if you finesse clubs and West wins, he can't play a diamond without setting up your Q.

Suppose the SQ loses and a diamond comes through, then you're losing only two diamonds and can still hope for clubs 3-3.

ahydra

[Flem72]

Phil, on 2012-May-17, 09:06, said:

Here's a play problem from Saturday:

---

The opening lead is the ♠5 (4th).

Plan the play.

What are RHO's S cards? if 2, then 62, T2, 92, Q2. If 1, then 6, 9, T or Q. Play low, guaranteeing 3 S tricks, and win with A EDIT: or 7, obv. Now low to JS and start C whenever you take JS. Have to hope the 8D & KD are well-placed, but RHO will start to feel some pain on later S plays, and after your C finesse, will not be happy about discarding C. Maybe a H will drop later; maybe LHO leads a D; but pesky 8 & 9 in C....

[gszes]

trick one play a small spade we really need to
have 3 spade tricks to have a decent chance of
making 3n and we cannot afford to have our J
covered by a singleton Q at trick one. Win the
A or 7 Since we are assured of 3 spades our best
bet is to try and maximize our chances of winning
3 clubs. IMO the best LOP is to play the club A
and exit with a small club.

This LOP will assure us of 3 clubs anytime the suit
breaks 33 as well as when it breaks 42 and there is
a doubleton honor or KQ tight. A dia switch from rho
probably isnt a huge disaster due to the dia 9 in dummy.

Any time lho wins the 2nd club trick (either due to them
having KQx KQ Kx or Qx we are well on our way to 9 tricks
because there is little damage they can do. If rho wins
the 2nd club we will probably need some luck if they
make a dia switch.

[Phil]

If you play the ♠J, you get the 2 from RHO.

If you play low, you get the 9.

[mikeh]

I would have played the spade J from dummy, tho there is an argument for low.

The problem is one of timing.

RHO will hold one card higher than the 5...whether that could be the 6 depends on our view of LHO's tendencies....would he, on an auction in which dummy may have 4 spades, lead the 5 from Q1095 or the 10 (or 9 if rusinow)?

All else being equal, we get our 3rd spade winner immediately, by ducking, 50% of the time and we get it 75% of the time by playing the Jack.

We have vulnerable holdings in the reds, notwithstanding the spot cards....say we play low, the 9 forces the A.....if we go after clubs, we haven't established our 3rd spade yet and accurate defence could really embarrass us. And if we go after spades, they can just win and play another one to force us to use our entry, and then when we play clubs, they may be able to play diamonds to their advantage.

On complex hands like this, I prefer to take a position early, if it is a high percentage position and I can see dangers lurking if I don't. The hand is far simpler after the J of spades holds than otherwise.

The next question is the club suit, since 3 club tricks sees us home. I don't like A and low....it loses to all KQxx holdings no matter where they are and gains only on H or Hx offside. All plays work on 3-3. it is very unlikely that there is a stiff club on our left, since LHO led a 4 card suit from a dangerous holding.

So a low club to the J is my next play....how does that work out?

[Phil]

mikeh, on 2012-May-17, 13:17, said:

So a low club to the J is my next play....how does that work out?

LHO wins the K and plays a 2nd spade. RHO follows.

[Fluffy]

Phil, on 2012-May-17, 13:37, said:

LHO wins the K and plays a 2nd spade. RHO follows.

you mean low spade to the 9 from RHO leaving Q10 right?

the double club finese plan is going wonderful, only question is if we should duck a diamond playing the queen to protect against RHO having ♦KJ10xx ♣xxx or play the ace directly not losing the tempo when they can stablish heart tricks and comunications. low diamond ot the ace and club its best.

[gnasher]

Fluffy, on 2012-May-18, 02:17, said:

you mean low spade to the 9 from RHO leaving Q10 right?

the double club finese plan is going wonderful, only question is if we should duck a diamond playing the queen to protect against RHO having ♦KJ10xx ♣xxx or play the ace directly not losing the tempo when they can stablish heart tricks and comunications. low diamond ot the ace and club its best.

That seems to lose to all sort of layouts where they can take two clubs and three diamonds.

After ♠J, losing club finesse, spade to the 9 and ace, I'd just play clubs from the top. That works when clubs are KQx-xxx, Hxxx-Hx or KQ-xxxx. There's a slight extra chance that LHO has something like Q10xx xx Kxx KQxx - if he cashes his club we squeeze him; if he doesn't we endplay him with it.

[Phil]

Fluffy, on 2012-May-18, 02:17, said:

you mean low spade to the 9 from RHO leaving Q10 right?

the double club finese plan is going wonderful, only question is if we should duck a diamond playing the queen to protect against RHO having ♦KJ10xx ♣xxx or play the ace directly not losing the tempo when they can stablish heart tricks and comunications. low diamond ot the ace and club its best.

? No, the ♠J held at T1 and LHO continued a spade which you won in hand.

[Phil]

bumparooni

[nige1]

Phil says "Here's a play problem from Saturday: The opening lead is the ♠5 (4th). Plan the play."


Half-baked (avoidance?) idea:
WIn ♠J, finesse ♣7
Win ♠ continuation, Cash ♣A.
Hoping to make 3 x ♠, 2 X ♥, 1 X ♦, and 3 X ♣.

---

[SteveMoe]

I might be dense, but there are 9 tricks if we score 3♠+2♥+1♦+3♣. If the opening lead is honest, then East has only one card higher...playing low will still let us score the ♠J later. Trouble is that we need to allow for losing 2♣ tricks - not enough red suit controls. Therefore ♠J trick 1 followed by to the ACE and a small ♣ (Playing for 4-2 split honors). We have enough timing now to get our 3rd ♣ established.

[Phil]

I considered ♣A, ♣. This works on the actual layout (LHO held QTxx, Jxxx, Txx, Kx), but I was paranoid about losing to some silly holding like KQ9x onside.

I'm not sure this is the best technical line or not, but I chose to win the ♠J at T1, lost a club hook to LHO who exited the spade.

RHO was carding honestly at every juncture, so clubs were 4-2 or Qx onside. I chose to use the ♦A as an entry and hook clubs again.

Diamonds were tangled so they could not take more than two diamonds and two clubs. LHO was very surprised that I would weaken my diamond stopper like this.

My counterpart won the ♠J, hooked clubs, won the spade in hand and played ♣A, ♣. He could not take more than 3♠ + 2♥ + 1♦ + 2♣.

This was on Day 1 where we won both of our 32 board matches by over 70 each.

[SteveMoe]

Phil, on 2012-May-27, 12:42, said:

I considered ♣A, ♣. This works on the actual layout (LHO held QTxx, Jxxx, Txx, Kx), but I was paranoid about losing to some silly holding like KQ9x onside.

I'm not sure this is the best technical line or not, but I chose to win the ♠J at T1, lost a club hook to LHO who exited the spade.

RHO was carding honestly at every juncture, so clubs were 4-2 or Qx onside. I chose to use the ♦A as an entry and hook clubs again.

Diamonds were tangled so they could not take more than two diamonds and two clubs. LHO was very surprised that I would weaken my diamond stopper like this.

My counterpart won the ♠J, hooked clubs, won the spade in hand and played ♣A, ♣. He could not take more than 3♠ + 2♥ + 1♦ + 2♣.

This was on Day 1 where we won both of our 32 board matches by over 70 each.

Missing KQxxxx, there are 16 cases splitting Hxxx/Hx and only 12 splitting HHxx/xx. The remaining 2 cases rounding out the 30 possible cases are xxxx/KQ (recall all this is symmetrical). The likelihood that KQxx is onside is 6 cases to the 16 cases when 4-2 with split honnors.

3-3 occurs 24 cases. In 4 cases the HH will be onside and 4 cases they will be offside. Split honors occur in 16 cases. With split honors we get 4♣ tricks by finessing twice (assuming entries and side suit controls allow that). But we don't need 4 ♣ tricks.

Since we only need 3 ♣ tricks lets count losing cases against that requirement. There are 4 losing cases when the suit splits 3-3 taking 2 finesses. There are 22 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2 and we finesse twice (all 4-2 with split honors and HHxx offside).

Playing Ace then low gives us no losing cases when suit splits 3-3 and 12 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2. 26 to 12 is good reason that Ace then small is best.

[MrAce]

SteveMoe, on 2012-May-28, 23:16, said:

Missing KQxxxx, there are 16 cases splitting Hxxx/Hx and only 12 splitting HHxx/xx. The remaining 2 cases rounding out the 30 possible cases are xxxx/KQ (recall all this is symmetrical). The likelihood that KQxx is onside is 6 cases to the 16 cases when 4-2 with split honnors.

3-3 occurs 24 cases. In 4 cases the HH will be onside and 4 cases they will be offside. Split honors occur in 16 cases. With split honors we get 4♣ tricks by finessing twice (assuming entries and side suit controls allow that). But we don't need 4 ♣ tricks.

Since we only need 3 ♣ tricks lets count losing cases against that requirement. There are 4 losing cases when the suit splits 3-3 taking 2 finesses. There are 22 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2 and we finesse twice (all 4-2 with split honors and HHxx offside).

Playing Ace then low gives us no losing cases when suit splits 3-3 and 12 losing cases when the suit splits 4-2. 26 to 12 is good reason that Ace then small is best.

Hi, welcome to forums.

Your calculations are wrong.

A- When the suit splits 3-3 (assuming no entry problems as u stated) there is no losing line since the goal is to make 3 club tricks. So i dont know why you came up with the idea that double finesse loses in 4 cases when it is 3-3 and A then small wins when 3-3.

B-Also double finesse does not lose to all 4-2 split honours. I think you forgot your own word about goal being 3 tricks, not 4.

Letme give u the 4-2 breaks that you rely on

KQ98-xx no one wins
KQ9x-8x no one wins
KQ8x-9x no one wins
KQxx-98 Ace and then small loses, 2 finesse wins
KQ-98xx Ace and small wins, 2 finesse loses
98xx-KQ Both wins
Hxxx-Hx Both wins
Hx-Hxxx Both wins
xx-KQ98 Ace and small loses, 2 finesse wins
8x-KQ9x Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins
98-KQxx Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins

There are also 1-5 splits where cashing ace wins when lho has stiff honor but loses to all other singletons.

[nige1]

Assuming declarer is not deep-finesse: IMO there are many losing cases e.g.

Whatever you do, RHO's ♣ KQ9x can turn out to be a losing case whenever opponents can set up and cash three ♦s.

If you play ♣A and another and RHO turns up with ♣KQx then you can lose similarly.

You are unlikely to win if an opponent holds a singleton ♣, whatever you do.

[SteveMoe]

MrAce, on 2012-May-29, 00:53, said:

Hi, welcome to forums.

Your calculations are wrong.

A- When the suit splits 3-3 (assuming no entry problems as u stated) there is no losing line since the goal is to make 3 club tricks. So i dont know why you came up with the idea that double finesse loses in 4 cases when it is 3-3 and A then small wins when 3-3.

B-Also double finesse does not lose to all 4-2 split honours. I think you forgot your own word about goal being 3 tricks, not 4.

Letme give u the 4-2 breaks that you rely on

KQ98-xx no one wins
KQ9x-8x no one wins
KQ8x-9x no one wins
KQxx-98 Ace and then small loses, 2 finesse wins
KQ-98xx Ace and small wins, 2 finesse loses
98xx-KQ Both wins
Hxxx-Hx Both wins
Hx-Hxxx Both wins
xx-KQ98 Ace and small loses, 2 finesse wins
8x-KQ9x Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins
98-KQxx Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins

There are also 1-5 splits where cashing ace wins when lho has stiff honor but loses to all other singletons.

Thanks for the welcome!..and for the time you took to illustrate your reply...I agree with your counting of cases all else equal. In the context of the suit alone your analysis is impeccable. 2 finesses have a 77% chance of yielding 3 tricks.

However I thought along different lines (and failed to be clear) - I wanted the best line for 3 ♣ tricks without clearing the ♦Ace.

My proposal(Ace then small) assumed that the downside risk of leaving ♦ wide open was high and intolerable. Therefore I dismissed the double finesse approach (we have to give up a 2nd club after a successful 2nd finesse leaving ♦s wide open). So not all 3-club trick cases are equal. Those that preserve the ♦Ace have to be more valuable, no? Granted we pay when ♦ split 5-2 and the defense can cash 4♦s (Certainly 4-3 is more likely) or when defense can get 2♣ and 3♦.

As for the singleton honor cases you point out, there are 6 cases, 2 of which an initial Ace captures a singleton honor. So that's a 3% option roughly...doesn't seem to be a percentage play...

Thanks for your advice.

[MrAce]

Yes, having to knock our ♦ A changes things a lot.

Thats why i did not write my own reply in this topic. There are a lot of things to consider. Including taking the first ♠ in hand, cashing ♣A, going to dummy with ♠ J and when we get there playing a ♣ towards JT76...But we can not afford to do this for various reasons...