[Fluffy]

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Just playedthis hand in BB (bridge for money)

success rate on 6NT = 40% (2/5)
success rate in 3NT = 25% (3/12)

[Phil]

I want some of the action that lets in 12 tricks on this layout. ♠A lead and a club shift?

[lalldonn]

Phil, on 2013-January-04, 15:50, said:

I want some of the action that lets in 12 tricks on this layout. ♠A lead and a club shift?

How about just a club lead to the king? It's not even that hard to imagine since it's a likely looking lead against 6NT and from west's perspective with AQJT9(8) missing it might be low.

Against 3NT a spade is a more likely lead and then declarer has problems.

It reminds me of that hand from Right Through the Pack, didn't one table go down in 2♠ and the other make 7♠, both on "normal" lines of play?

[Phil]

lalldonn, on 2013-January-04, 15:57, said:

How about just a club lead to the king? It's not even that hard to imagine since it's a likely looking lead against 6NT and from west's perspective with AQJT9(8) missing it might be low.

Against 3NT a spade is a more likely lead and then declarer has problems.

It reminds me of that hand from Right Through the Pack, didn't one table go down in 2♠ and the other make 7♠, both on "normal" lines of play?

Low club, small, King is possible. I don't think you can take 12 tricks if West ducks after East leads a normal 8.

In 3N (by North) ducking the spade happens to work. Even then, there are winning continuations if declarer wins T1.

[gszes]

Not sure why this is posted but I disagree with 25% 3n. If spades break 43
the opps can never score more than 3 spades and a club. If we assume spades
break 52 (if they break 61 ducking the first spade scores 10 or 11 tricks no
matter who has the club K) we merely duck the first spade and at worst 3n is 5050
depending on which player has the club K. Ducking the first spade makes sense here
because we have no reasonable LOP for taking a finesse into the hand with the long spades.

[Fluffy]

you can disagree with the reality as much as you want gzes, but you can hardly change it.

On my table it was c8 lead to the king, my partner failed to test hearts bofre playing spades, but defende didn't find the diamond switch.

[lalldonn]

Just to be clear I'm not saying how the defense or play should go, just that it's easy to imagine how more people made 6NT than 3NT. Obviously you could duck the spade, also obviously it's not a 100% play and many players wouldn't even think to anyway.

[gnasher]

gszes, on 2013-January-04, 16:34, said:

Ducking the first spade makes sense here because we have no reasonable LOP for taking a finesse into the hand with the long spades.

What about this plan:
- Win the first spade.
- Cash three top hearts (but if the jack is doubleton, unblock ♦K and use ♥10 as an entry to ♦AQ).
- Overtake the diamond
- Take a club finesse. If it loses we have at least nine tricks
- If the club wins and we think RHO has the king, exit with a high spade. That will work whenever LHO has five spades and fewer than four hearts - either he plays another club himself, or he lets us into dummy to take another finesse. Even if he's 5=2=4=2, RHO is squeezed on the run of the spades.

The reason for cashing the third heart is to try to get an idea of the club layout. On the actual layout, East would probably pitch two clubs, and we'd have to work out whether he had his actual hand or A10xxx x Jxx Kxxx.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2013-January-05, 13:05