[xx1943]

Scoring method: IMPs

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We play 2/1; flannery, Bergen raises, forcing 1NT after major opening.
2♠ = 100% game forcing and denies a balanced hand (4333 or 4432 or 5332)
3♥ = exactly doubleton ♥. With 3 cards in partners suit we raise generally in the 2nd round
4NT = RKCB 1403
5♠ = 2 keys and ♥Q
5NT = Have all keys. Asking for specific Kings.
6♦ = Have ♦K, have not ♣K and may have ♠K

Now what?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

First of all... a well written post .

It looks like all you need is a 3-2 ♥ split for the grand... a 68% shot .
[ Your ♣ loser will go on the 4th high ♦. ]

7H since it IMPs

[xx1943]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-January-27, 08:19, said:

First of all... a well written post .

It looks like all you need is a 3-2 ♥ split for the grand... a 68% shot .
[ Your ♣ loser will go on the 4th high ♦. ]

7H since it IMPs

In 7♥ you need hearts 3==2 or the singleton J; perhaps even a trump coup maybe possible.

BUT 7♦ has more than 96%.(I'll show both hands in another post)

And playing IMPs (Yes IMP not MP) the difference in score for 7♥ and 7♦ doesn't matter really.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

You are right. I overlooked the "unbalanced" Responder hand which has at least 5 cards ♦ , sooooo, you can handle 4-1 splits in both red suits.... thus, a 96+ % chance in 7D .

Even if Responder has a stiff ♣ and the opening lead knocks out that entry ( to your ♥ if they don't split ) , you should still have an easy 13 tricks. Responder would have 6 cards ♦ ( 4 2 6 1 hand ) and the 13th trick would be an early ♠-ruff :
1s, 3h, 6d, 2c, and the ruff.

[manudude03]

Partner is known to have at least Axxx Qx AKxxx xx. If you're going to bid 7H, you may as well bid 7N. Both contracts just require hearts to come in. How strong are the opponents? If they're weak, I'll settle for 7D. If they're strong, we should probably risk 7N.

[steve2005]

if its 68% for 7♥/7N and 96% for 7♦
then at imps its no contest i pick 7♦

since this is a novice beginner forum, i would assume at mp field isn't bidding grand, so would still bid safer 7♦

[xx1943]

steve2005, on 2013-January-27, 10:23, said:

if its 68% for 7♥/7N and 96% for 7♦
then at imps its no contest i pick 7♦

since this is a novice beginner forum, i would assume at mp field isn't bidding grand, so would still bid safer 7♦

Agree 100%
Al

[mgoetze]

73.5% (3-2 break or J singleton) is an absolute lower bound on the success chance for 7NT. There are a number of things partner could have to raise that number even higher, such as the ♥J, extra diamond length, ♣Q, and so on. OK, in a field where anyone bidding and making a grand is the story of the month, sure, bid 7♦. But in a decent field, I think this is a close call.

[PhilKing]

IMPs.