[Phil]

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Opening lead is the ♥5 (4th best). You play low and this fetches the A.

♠2 comes back. You win and LHO plays the T.

Continue...

[JLOGIC]

I would just keep it simple and play diamond to the ace, heart ruff, diamond ruff, HK pitching a diamond and hook a club.

If the club loses I might face a possible trump promotion in diamonds if RHO has Kxxxx but I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to do, I am not going to not hook the club and just drop a trick a lot of the time when the club is on.

[Fluffy]

If opponents aren't ducking ♣Q then draw trumps and play on clubs its fine.

[Phil]

Fluffy, on 2013-March-11, 19:10, said:

If opponents aren't ducking ♣Q then draw trumps and play on clubs its fine.

I don't have a world of respect for them but I expect they'd duck if I led A then Q.

[JLOGIC]

They can just win and play a diamond lol

[awm]

Well another option is to pull trump and then play ace and queen of clubs. Assuming trumps break, this makes eleven tricks if the club king is singleton or doubleton and always makes at least ten tricks. Justin's line makes eleven tricks if the club finesse wins, but fails in game when the club finesse loses and there is a trump promotion in one of the red suits. The trump promotion seems actually pretty likely to me on best defense... so perhaps it is close?

[JLOGIC]

awm, on 2013-March-11, 21:12, said:

Well another option is to pull trump and then play ace and queen of clubs. Assuming trumps break, this makes eleven tricks if the club king is singleton or doubleton and always makes at least ten tricks. Justin's line makes eleven tricks if the club finesse wins, but fails in game when the club finesse loses and there is a trump promotion in one of the red suits. The trump promotion seems actually pretty likely to me on best defense... so perhaps it is close?

Trump promotion in hearts is very unlikely, only if LHO has 5 and has played the ST from T9x or JTx. It is possible, but if he has that then the club finesse is more likely to work than normal, and most people do not have JTx at least for the ten play.

I do not see why a trump promotion in diamonds is very likely, yeah RHO could have 5 diamonds to the king but why does he rate to? If LHO has 5 diamonds to the king the trump promotion is basically impossible, LHO would need JTx/T9x of spades, stiff K of clubs, 5 diamondsto the king, to go with only 4 heartsto the queen lol.

LHO having stiff ten of spades defenitely seems more likely than this, I mean the ten is a pretty scary card and against many people might be like 40% to be stiff ten (half of JT/T9, some small chance of other combos), playing ace of clubs queen of clubs seems pretty scary to me and I would not think I am just locking up my game.

I think these hands get overthought though it is certainly possible I'm underthinking them lol, just ruff a loser and take a hook and make your 11 tricks when you run good and everythings fine and dandy! A finesse is still about 50 % to win AFAIK (likelihood of short spades probably is close when compared to likelihood that LHO has 5 hearts for empty space purposes) and that seems pretty good to me.

[Phil]

If youre going to play ♣A-Q, sure its better to start with the Q first? That was my choice and it had the unintended positive consequence of catching LHO napping with Kxx.

I could have actually made 5 from here. RHO held: J9xx A8 KTxxx Tx.

Note the issues about ruffing a heart back to hand before trying the club hook, as RHO gets to shed a club on the 3rd heart.

[JLOGIC]

You said the 5 of hearts lead was 4th best lol. I am guessing you messed up a spot somewhere or did they lead 5th? I still think this line is silly but well done...it's great when it works.

[Fluffy]

I you start with the queen you block the suit, and can't run the clubs unless ♣10 is doubleton?, I gotta be missing something.

[gszes]

i would strongly fear a 41 trump break after that start and that
puts my normal 10 tricks in jeopardy. It seems to me the best
shot is to immediately lay down the club A and the club Q.
If this is ducked I am back to ten tricks and can try for 11 if the
trumps do split.

If the opps win the club and return a dia i can win the A cash
the heart K (pitch a dia) ruff a heart ruff a dia and now play a
club (if an opp ruffs pitch last dia) I am only hurt if an opp with
2 trumps ruffs the club otherwise i have 6s 1c 1h 1d 1d ruff.

if the opps win the 2nd club and return a 3rd club (threatinging an
uppercut it depends on which opps wins the club
if rho wins the club and returns a club i would pitch a dia since i am
worried about rho having long spades anyway.

if lho wins the club and returns a club if rho ruffs overruff dia to A
heart K ruff a heart ruff a dia and play another club intending to
pitch last dia if rho ruffs.

[Phil]

JLOGIC, on 2013-March-13, 11:35, said:

You said the 5 of hearts lead was 4th best lol. I am guessing you messed up a spot somewhere or did they lead 5th? I still think this line is silly but well done...it's great when it works.

I did. Dummy had the 6 not the 4.

[Phil]

Fluffy, on 2013-March-13, 11:44, said:

I you start with the queen you block the suit, and can't run the clubs unless ♣10 is doubleton?, I gotta be missing something.

If they play a trump the A♦ is a late entry. If they play a diamond you can still ruff a d as before and ditch a D on the JC.

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2013-March-13, 18:40, said:

If they play a trump the A♦ is a late entry. If they play a diamond you can still ruff a d as before and ditch a D on the JC.

So you will be giving 1 club + 1 heart + 1 club ruff when one of them ruffs 3rd club ?

Why is this better than club finesse which leads to +1 if works ?

[Alik1974]

As long as ♠ are not 4-1 there are 10 tricks, either by ruffing a ♦ or by playing trumps and then ♣A and ♣Q.
For an 11th trick one might try pulling all trumps.
West must keep the guarded ♥Q, someone must keep the guarded ♦K and someone must keep the guarded ♣K.
Dummy will discard one ♥ and three ♣.
Most possibly the ♣9 will score.

[Phil]

MrAce, on 2013-March-13, 19:00, said:

So you will be giving 1 club + 1 heart + 1 club ruff when one of them ruffs 3rd club ?

Why is this better than club finesse which leads to +1 if works ?

I'm assuming clubs are 3-2, since LHO didn't lead one and RHO auto switched to a trump. This may not be guaranteed.

- If the club finesse works, and trumps are 3-2, you'll make 5 and I make 4. This assumes that the defenders are sharp enough to return a diamond upon winning the club, which seems far from obvious.

- If the club finesse works, and trumps are 4-1, we both make 4.

- If the club finesse loses, and trumps are 3-2, we both make 4. Again, this assumes the defenders find the diamond shift, else I make 5.

- If the club finesse loses, and trumps are 4-1, you go down and I make.

In addition, there is some level of vig for the defenders completely misreading the position. A pro player with about 7K masterpoints ducked the ♣Q when it was led. It didn't occur to him to grab the King here. Yes, he was steaming about the prior hand, but I'd like to think many in his seat would have done the same thing.

[Fluffy]

Phil, on 2013-March-13, 18:40, said:

If they play a trump the A♦ is a late entry. If they play a diamond you can still ruff a d as before and ditch a D on the JC.

So not going to draw trumps I see, But ♣J is gonna get ruffed? What is the point of stablishing it? only to cope with 4-1 trumps