[hautbois]

Matchpoints

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[mikeh]

3♦

Terribly flawed of course, but no choice is attractive. I have too much defence, and my suit is indifferent, but holding 1-1 in the majors, I 'feel the need for speed' and want to make life difficult for them. At the same time, this doesn't look to me like a hand on which to bid 4♦.

If it is partner I have pre-empted, then it's only one board.

[PhilKing]

I'm gonna test out their defence to a 1♦ overcall.

[ggwhiz]

I too start with 1♦ hoping to bring pard to the table. After I get to bid them again and again if given room pard can either compete on scrappy support or put the hammer on them. I expect their bidding box to disappear after 3♦.

[Winstonm]

I start with 1D. This would be a much different problem if RHO opened the bidding in a major, but the fact that he bid clubs gives me less reason to feel the need for obstructionist tactics - plus it is rarely a good thing to mislead partner, which a preempt would do.

With 25 missing major suit cards, expectancy would distribute them about 888 in the three missing hands. This may be one of those hands where no one can make much of anything.

I simply don't feel any urgency to do anything out of the usual at this point in the auction.

[Codo]

I join Mike and try their defence against a 3 ♦ bid...

[MrAce]

1 ♦ for me

[hautbois]

Expecting to be outbid in the majors, I tried 3♦, which won the auction.

Partner tables Txxx KJxxx KQ QJ.

I asked because opponents were adamant I was too strong to bid 3D. After all, I made slam. I thought better about saying anything about how to hold it to 4.

1♦ is the favorite here and I'll see how that works out next time.

[Zelandakh]

I would go for 3♦ too. You are only too strong for this if you and your partner agree that it is too strong. Do you opponents know your system better than you? Or did your opponents look at the colours and decide that if you preempt them, you should have a hand where they can take you for a large penalty?

[ggwhiz]

 Zelandakh, on 2013-July-09, 08:38, said:

I would go for 3♦ too. You are only too strong for this if you and your partner agree that it is too strong.

3nt looks to be a heavy favorite here barring pinpoint defence that MAY be able to take 5 fast in the majors. That makes 3♦ too strong in my book.

[mikeh]

 hautbois, on 2013-July-08, 22:01, said:

Expecting to be outbid in the majors, I tried 3♦, which won the auction.

Partner tables Txxx KJxxx KQ QJ.

I asked because opponents were adamant I was too strong to bid 3D. After all, I made slam. I thought better about saying anything about how to hold it to 4.

1♦ is the favorite here and I'll see how that works out next time.

I am willing to bet that you wouldn't have 'made slam' had you bid slam.

As for game, well, since you need to ruff a club in dummy, you can't handle Jxx in trump in either opponent's hand, and while the club K is a heavy favourite to be onside, or the suit to be lead by LHO if he holds the K, it isn't quite 100% that you don't have a club loser.

So game in diamonds is good but not cold. 3N is interesting, but from your side a club lead causes problems unless the diamond J is stiff or the suit is 2-2, and a major suit lead will probably beat you off the top.

Finally, how plausible is it to reach 5♦ after overcalling 1♦? Let's assume partner, with his aceless 12 count, advances via 1♥ and the opps are silent. Your rebid? Would anyone do anything more than 2♦ with a poor(ish) suit and a stiff in partner's suit? Then what? At most responder could try 3♦....remember, he has no Aces and from his perspective the clubs may be waste paper. Now over to us again?

Maybe some pairs might reach the good but far from cold 5♦, but I'd bet that most, even in a good field, wouldn't.

Thus it seems to me that your opps, at the table, and you in this thread are guilty of the worst kind of bridge analysis: resulting.

3♦ or 1♦ is a choice and maybe one is better than the other, but the actual layout doesn't help us figure that out.

[mikeh]

 ggwhiz, on 2013-July-09, 08:54, said:

3nt looks to be a heavy favorite here barring pinpoint defence that MAY be able to take 5 fast in the majors. That makes 3♦ too strong in my book.

Pinpoint defence may take a LOT of tricks if the diamond J doesn't drop:

Heart to the 10 (or the Q if we insert the J), spade A, spade to the J spade back, cash spades. Assume declarer pitches all his little clubs...now a small club back holds declarer to as few as 3 tricks. So declarer throws a diamond winner to preserve A10 of clubs: RHO exits the club K. If declarer wins, and the diamonds don't behave, he gets 4 tricks.

Even with a club lead, which is far from clear given that LHO rates to hold a major and may be short in clubs, if RHO puts the K on the first lead, what do we do? Again, the diamonds better come home, and while they rate to do so, it would surprise no bridge player to find Jxx in one hand.

[ggwhiz]

 mikeh, on 2013-July-09, 09:08, said:

Pinpoint defence may take a LOT of tricks if the diamond J doesn't drop:

Hail Mary for sure but if the QJ of clubs were elsewhere or pard had a 3rd one 3nt could easily be cold. As it is it's a favorite to make (or go out the door) but I have an understanding pard at mp's.

I'm not even sure we could or should bid it but was thinking more of layouts where pard could compete In diamonds over 3 of a major by them where they would have to sell out after a 3♦ bid.

Jxx in diamonds in one of their hands and a winning heart finesse... doesn't take much more for them to be making 3♠ and I would sell out as North if they bid it. Down 1 would be a good score for them too.