MickyB, on 2013-July-17, 09:13, said:
It's clear to bid IMO. As others have said, there's no reason to think 4S going off will be worse than defending 3C.
Yes, this is obviously the key. If all of these things were true:
1) We will rarely beat 3C
2) Game will rarely make
3) They will rarely double us (passed hand opposite third seat white preempt and we have a good suit)
4) Partner will always bid game (given that he is marked with HCP)
5) Partner will almost never balance (given our club void)
We should still bid. Personally I think #2 is definitely the farthest from the truth of all 5 things which makes bidding huge upside. This is not going to be a turning a small plus into a small minus hand that often, it will usually be turning a small minus into a different small minus with the upside of turning a small minus into a big plus.