Posted 2014-July-03, 12:59
You would need to work out the chances based upon vacant space principles.
Of course, we have all heard the old adage, "eight ever, nine never". Sounds cute. It means when holding eight cards missing the queen finesse for it, with nine cards missing the queen play for the drop.
Let's try to do a little better. They don't have much. Looks like 1♥ overcaller has the ♥KQ, and could have as much as the ♣KJ and ♦KJ plus or minus the spade queen. Surely North has something more than some hearts to the jack for the 3♥ eventual raise, but not much more because he didn't bid 2♥.
So he big question is how many hearts does South hold. if six, then the vacant space is very close (After all but the ♠Q has been played you can count the spades. So South had 6♥ plus one spade to North's 3 ♥ plus 2 spades. That is 6 vacant spaces in South to 8 in north to hold the spade queen. So the odds would be 8/1th or 57% that north holds the spade Queen.
If you thought that South had only five hearts, it would be 5♥+1♠ for south compared to 4♥ + 2[sp\ for north or basically an even guess 714th either way).
I would take the finesse because at worse it is even bet, and at with four hearts north might have made the raise one round earlier.
Finally a note on the bidding. It should be west reopening with 3[sp] not east bidding 3♠ IMHO
--Ben--