[wynsten]

West, Sue Picus, led the ♥A, then switched to a ♣.
How did Mike Cappelletti justify his partner's raise to 5♦?

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At the other table with identical bidding, declarer had no chance as Becky Rogers found the killing lead of ...

[Lord Molyb]

win ♣A, king of hearts dropping the jack, ruff a heart dropping the queen, ♦KA, pitch a spade or club on a heart?

King of clubs is obviously offsides so we can't establish a spade in time, and our spade loser is fast so we can't establish a club either.

Looks like a club lead always kills it though.

[MrAce]

If ♣K is off, you can take ♣ A and run all diamonds, expecting to squeeze LHO if he has AQJ♥+♠A. OR AHxxx ♥+[s]A In last 3 cards he can not hold a club to set 5♦ when in with ♠A
Or you can simply play for the ♣K to be on.

Which has better % of making is obvious. But I doubt you would be posting this if ♣ K was on. Shall we go up Ace each time an opponent plays a high card through our AQ and place a lot of cards to him instead of one and go for squeeze? Perhaps if my team is already doing bad and I wanna shoot for bulletin rather than worrying about answering how I went down in cold contract, one can go for squeeze. (Assuming that you gave us the correct auction)

Also when you mention the "killing lead" at other table, makes it obvious that club K is off.

[MrAce]

Lord Molyb, on 2014-October-13, 12:32, said:

King of clubs is obviously offsides so we can't establish a spade in time, and our spade loser is fast so we can't establish a club either.

How do we know ♣ K is off at the table? Is it because LHO play ♣ 9 or is it because this was asked as a problem?

[PhantomSac]

Timo I both agree and disagree with you at the same time.

I mean I agree that Mikey obv took the view that the CK was off and played for the squeeze or this hand would not be posted. However I think hands where great players take a view and make an otherwise anti-percentage play are very interesting/cool. I mean don't you have a sneaking suspicion that the CK is off like 100 % of the time on the 9 of clubs shift in this spot? I am not saying that I would go big and eschew the finesse, it's so much easier to say that on a forum than to do it in real life, but it might well be the right play depending on a lot of factors. It takes a lot of balls to not hook the club though lol, esp playing on a pro team with Jeff Meckstroth at the other table in a world championship. Credit to Mikey for making the play he believed was right (if he did in fact go up with the ace and sqz LHO).

[Lord Molyb]

Oh yeah, I forgot the ♥K was an entry for a squeeze

[MrAce]

PhantomSac, on 2014-October-13, 13:20, said:

Timo I both agree and disagree with you at the same time.

I mean I agree that Mikey obv took the view that the CK was off and played for the squeeze or this hand would not be posted. However I think hands where great players take a view and make an otherwise anti-percentage play are very interesting/cool. I mean don't you have a sneaking suspicion that the CK is off like 100 % of the time on the 9 of clubs shift in this spot? I am not saying that I would go big and eschew the finesse, it's so much easier to say that on a forum than to do it in real life, but it might well be the right play depending on a lot of factors. It takes a lot of balls to not hook the club though lol, esp playing on a pro team with Jeff Meckstroth at the other table in a world championship. Credit to Mikey for making the play he believed was right (if he did in fact go up with the ace and sqz LHO).

Of course you are right. And no need to mention we all have different senses at the table. I know you have it, I watched every match you played on VG. And you tend to be very accurate. This may be due to knowing your opponents, or previous board experiences vs this particular pair or person, or due to something which we specs can't see due to bias of seeing 4 hands. I have it too even if mine may not be as accurate as better players. I also think being far from real bridge table over a decade, and playing too much online bridge making me underestimate the table feeling.

But OP, imo, gave us way too many hints that ♣ K is off. as I said first by posting this here and saying something like "justify the 5 dia bid" obv everyone can take this finesse, 2nd telling about the killing lead at other table.

[wynsten]

MrAce, on 2014-October-13, 12:47, said:

If ♣K is off, you can take ♣ A and run all diamonds, expecting to squeeze LHO if he has AQJ♥+♠A. OR AHxxx ♥+[s]A In last 3 cards he can not hold a club to set 5♦ when in with ♠A
Or you can simply play for the ♣K to be on.

Which has better % of making is obvious. But I doubt you would be posting this if ♣ K was on. Shall we go up Ace each time an opponent plays a high card through our AQ and place a lot of cards to him instead of one and go for squeeze? Perhaps if my team is already doing bad and I wanna shoot for bulletin rather than worrying about answering how I went down in cold contract, one can go for squeeze. (Assuming that you gave us the correct auction)

Also when you mention the "killing lead" at other table, makes it obvious that club K is off.

Yes, auction was correct. Team was not doing bad - was first board of a knockout round. Don't know if he got a mention in the daily - may have had to settle for a thread in BBO Forum. Anyway the club King was off, the spade Ace and heart QJ were on and Cappelletti picked up 10 IMPs.

[wynsten]

MrAce, on 2014-October-13, 16:43, said:

But OP, imo, gave us way too many hints that ♣ K is off. as I said first by posting this here and saying something like "justify the 5 dia bid" obv everyone can take this finesse, 2nd telling about the killing lead at other table.

Yes hard to conceal ♣K offside, but I received at least one incorrect continuation and the rest of you had fun debating the justification for Cappelletti's line so maybe it was worth a note.

[whereagles]

Playing for some sort of squeeze without the count is unlikely to work, so I'd probably end up hooking the club, just as I would against Papa. Obv table vibes can help you here.