BBO Discussion Forums: Final decision time - BBO Discussion Forums

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Final decision time

Poll: Place the contract quickly (17 member(s) have cast votes)

What is your next call.

  1. pass (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 6 spades (!) (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 6 notrump (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. 7 hearts (11 votes [64.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 64.71%

  5. 7 notrump (6 votes [35.29%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.29%

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#21 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-21, 02:18

An interesting phenomenon on hands like this is that once you know partner has specifically the AK of clubs and 6322 shape, they become LESS likely to hold AK tight and more likely to also hold a small club.

To describe this in another way: 9 of partner's cards are already known: Kxxxxx, A, AK. This means there are 4 small cards which remain to be distributed among the other suits. These small cards are more likely to be distributed evenly among the suits which in turn makes it more likely partner will have a third clubs.

I did a quick sim on the hand and found the approximate chance that partner holds each shape is:

2623 ~ 59%
3622 ~ 24%
2632 ~ 17%

So grand-slam is at least 80%.
4

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