lamford, on 2015-April-25, 04:05, said:
As an aside, I have noticed that around 70% of players select the higher honour in restricted choice situations. If they go over 67%, or below 33%, the declarer can do "better than suitplay" if he or she discerns this.
Sorry for the hijack but this is not true. In the common case of missing the Q, J, 3, and 2, all your opponent needs to do is to play either honour less often often than 6.22/6.78 of the time (the ratio of the probability of a specific 3-1 divided by that of a specific 2-2 break), which is between 8.3-91.7%, for the second-round finesse to be a favourite. Even humans can randomize adequately by that standard.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin