kenrexford, on 2015-October-31, 13:41, said:
The round one duck works if RHO started with maybe AKx-Axx-xx-Kxxxx or similar.
As hopeless as the contract appears, considering the
♥ suit in isolation, I was trying to hold my losers in that suit to 2. I have little hope of landing the contract, but -1 may be significantly better than -2.
I considered ducking entirely when the 8
♥ shows <I see now that 8
♥ is actually lowest outstanding> and then going back to dummy -- actually hoping that the OPPs put me back in dummy at some point -- so I can lead another
♥ toward the KJ7xx and then worry about what to do next. But for whatever reason, I put in the J and it held as the 9 came down on my left.
The subsequent defense was terrible as my lead of the T
♠ was won with the K by LHO. Who emerges with a
♣ (thank you God!). When next in the dummy I lead a
♥ to the K which holds as LHO shows out. I get home with 2
♦s, 2
♣s and 4
♥s.
But I am still not sure what is the best chance for 4
♥ tricks given that the auction suggests a larger than a priori probability of 4
♥s with RHO.
As to the opening bid . . . I told a friend/mentor that if I ever opened a weak 2 and took 3 tricks on defense could double . . . my card fees for the next session.
Edited: To add comment about size of 8
♥.