[lycier]

---

Assume you hold south hand in the match,after 2♠,do you think you must bid up to game without invitation ?
If you don't think,actually you are correct.
If you think so,actually this is a gambling.And same with all the top players in the world.
What's more,all the top players in the world had a boiling passion for this hand in Bermuda Bowl.


Now please look at this hand which was from 2015WBTC-BB RR1 at below.
-----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
England Vs India
Open Room :4♠-1
Closed Room: 4♠-1

---

-----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
USA-1 Vs Argentina
Open Room :4♠=
Closed Room: 4♠-1

---

----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
Denmark Vs USA2
Open Room :4♠-1
Closed Room: 4♠-2

---

----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
Egypt Vs Australia
Open Room :4♠-2
Closed Room: 4♠-1

---

----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
USA-1 Vs Japan
Open Room :4♠-2
Closed Room: 4♠-2

---

----------------------------------------------------
Hand-12
China Vs France
Open Room :4♠-1
Closed Room: 4♠-2

---

----------------------------------------------------


Why do all the players do such? I guess there are two main reasons
First, if they can make 2♠ with over 2 tricks,the score is 170, but if they can make 4♠,the score is 620,they will lose 450.If unlucky 4♠ down one trick,they will only lose 100.
Second,Gambling may be a synchronous tactical bidding for the match teams.

I think Gambling is one of bidding strategies for all the top players in the world match,all the top players are an eternal optimist,so sometimes gambling just like the doping.
What else? Any ideas?

[gwnn]

What do you mean by gambling? You are just comparing risk and reward. If the reward is bigger than the risk, you do the action, if not, then you don't. What else is there? Txxx AJxxx xx Kx is obviously better than Txxx AJxx xxx Kx, which is obviously better than Qxxx Qxxx Qxx Qx, don't you agree? It's not just "bidding game on an eight count", but it is a 5-4 hand with 3 controls and useful cards everywhere.

Of course, the question of risk/reward is more complicated than this. For example, what if someone offers me a coin toss where I can win 1 billion if it's heads but need to pay 900 million if it's tails (and I cannot make an insurance bet)? That is reckless gambling because I can ruin my whole life (and possibly other people's lives too). For Bill Gates it would just be a net gain of 50M but for me it would be reckless. There are other examples, too, for example, passing Multi when it has strong options but you suspect your partner just has a hand with a major. It's a question of taste what one person considers a gamble and what another considers a calculated risk. I once was at a table with two people who needed to split a 10 Euro bill when no one around us had a 5 Euro bill. I just proposed them to toss a coin and winner takes all but they looked at me as if I had been a sick person. I still think my solution was elegant and fun but they just kept looking and eventually found a 5 Euro bill (or two) and solved it like that.

[Free]

As gwnn said, it's all about risk vs reward. The hand evaluation part is flawless, but risk vs reward even depends on vulnerability! When Vulnerable (as in this case), bidding game whenever you have more than 35% chance of making your contract is winning in the long run. You can do the math. So is bidding sharp games gambling? Not at all.

[billw55]

 lycier, on 2015-November-13, 07:02, said:

If you don't think,actually you are correct.
If you think so,actually this is a gambling.And same with all the top players in the world.

Let me guess, your BBO profile self-rating is "world class" ?

[WesleyC]

A common misconception is to automatically think of the aggressive action as gambling. In reality it is usually the other way around.

Vulnerable at IMPs you only need 4S to make about 37% of the time for bidding game to be the correct action. Your chance on this hand is certainly better than that.
---

To think about it another way:

If 4S makes and you DON'T bid game, you will lose 10 IMPs.

If 4S doesn't make and you DO bid game you will lose only 6 IMPs.

So passing 2S is actually a much bigger gamble!

[barmar]

Besides what everyone else has said about this specific hand, if you watch any amount of top-level competition, you'll notice that they tend to bid far more aggressively than us mortals. Winning against world champions requires big swings, and you don't get them with middle-of-the-road bidding.

For example, most players don't usually bid 3NT unless they think they have at least 25 HCP in the two hands, but Meckwell are famous (infamous?) for routinely bidding it with 23 HCP (and no compensating shape), and often making it. They're basically challenging the opponents to find the killing defense -- remember, they don't know how strong declarer is, so it becomes difficult for them to infer what's in their partner's hand.

[lycier]

When you hold invitational hand,even have found 4-4 trumph fit in 4522 balanced pattern,you never invite,but bid up to game directly,this is not a gambling?
The bridge is only a game of probability,not a science.If there are too many risk,I think such probability is just a gambling unless you first make invitation.

[billw55]

Well there is the saying:

invitation = bid game and invite partner to make it.


It makes sense in a way. Inviting and then stopping amounts to guessing (dare I say "gambling") that the hand makes exactly one trick short of game. That's a pretty small target, and in addition it gives the opponents more information to work with. Sometimes I think that scrapping invitations entirely is a reasonable idea.

[chasetb]

Gonzalo, at Vul IMPs you break even just making 37% of your games. The South hand has a prime 8 HCP, you have the nice 4-4 fit, and that Heart suit has at least a decent chance of setting up for tricks and discards. It's definitely worth an invite no matter what, but when you are among the best in the world, you just bid it hoping to make, knowing everyone else will be there as well. I don't call it gambling, I look at it as statistics and ability influencing the game.

[Vampyr]

 WesleyC, on 2015-November-13, 09:17, said:

A common misconception is to automatically think of the aggressive action as gambling. In reality it is usually the other way around.

Bobby Wolff, frequently in the MSC: passing is too risky

[gwnn]

lycier, with an invitational hand with this distribution you can transfer to hearts and bid 2S. What we are saying is that this is not an invitational hand. We can count to 8 but it is not the only thing we take into consideration. If partner bids 2D I'll force to game with 3S (smolen), as indeed I think everyone would.

[gwnn]

It's actually not a bad contract if they don't lead a diamond. If anything, they were unlucky OL had the diamond KQ.

Other benefits of blasting game instead of inviting:
-keeps opponents under pressure
-avoids speculative doubles (if they have a trump stack or trump void they can double knowing you are close to the minimum values for game)
-gives opponents less information on lead (dummy can have something like 9-14 so they don't know to lead conservatively or aggressively)
-gives opponents less information during defence (opener has 15-17, any distribution, but if he accepts he probably has 16 with good distribution or 17 any)
On a less serious note, blasting game instead of inviting also saves time and nerves for both of us. I find it ridiculous when people waste tens of seconds or a minute trying to figure out "oh no, is this a GF? Is it an invite? What if I'm wrong??" and then the other party doing the same about accepting or rejecting. Whenever it's even reasonable I prefer blasting and using the stress and thinking time during the play period, where I make much more serious errors than oh no blasting to game instead of inviting on some marginal hand (0.2 imps negative EV).

[KurtGodel]

I think if something happens at 12 tables in the BB, it gives you an idea about whether or not it's the right action.

[kenrexford]

I have several thoughts on this.

First, I think the analysis is backwards. I think the issue is the 1NT opening. How can all of these supposed experts in the Bermuda Bowl open that garbage 15-count when partner will play him for the normal 16-18 HCP balanced hand?

Assuming such nonsense, South clearly should transfer to hearts before bidding 2♠ as invitational, because Stayman creates an obvious problem of what to do after 2♦. You are forced to bid 2NT, and then the heart suit is buried.

Then, bidding game just because you have a 4-4 spade fit an 8 HCP is silliness. I know that the great one, Goren, spoke of adding one point for every doubleton, which technically gets you to 10 total points, but clearly you have to downgrade for the Kx as not worth 4 total points. Please.

These people in the Bermuda Bowl probably don't even play Gerber as always on. I see them make that mistake in a lot of recaps.

[gwnn]

Interpreting satire is difficult over a language barrier.

[steve2005]

It Vul at imps, so you bid 4♠ no big deal.
Partner could easily have a hand where you make and be min.
Ok this hand people went down, it doesn't mean bidding 35 or 37% games is wrong at imps

[eagles123]

4s looks super obvious vul at imps - anyone that fails to bid game here needs a lesson in how imp scoring works imo!

[cloa513]

 eagles123, on 2015-November-13, 14:27, said:

4s looks super obvious vul at imps - anyone that fails to bid game here needs a lesson in how imp scoring works imo!

Only if you believe in IMP BS dogma.

[Stephen Tu]

 lycier, on 2015-November-13, 09:46, said:

When you hold invitational hand,even have found 4-4 trumph fit in 4522 balanced pattern,you never invite,but bid up to game directly,this is not a gambling?
The bridge is only a game of probability,not a science.If there are too many risk,I think such probability is just a gambling unless you first make invitation.

A ton of bridge is "gambling". If you bid game you are gambling that it makes. If you don't bid game, you are still gambling! You are merely gambling that game doesn't make, when partner has a min, taking the other side of the wager. Just bridge is different than most casino gambling in that you can make bets with the odds in your favor a lot more often, rather than having to be fighting the odds all the time. Doesn't make it not gambling, no matter whether you choose to invite or blast game. At IMPs vul, you don't need game to be a favorite, because of the gain 10 vs. lose 6 nature of making 4 vs. down 1. You only need 38% to come out ahead in the long run. Good bridge boils down to being able to accurately estimate in your head what the true odds are, and consistently trying to take the better bets.

On this hand, I ran a double dummy sim giving the other hand 15 HCP and 4333/4432 distribution with 4 spades, not 4 hearts (since most people bid up the line in response to stayman). Game made 54% of the time. So it clears the hurdle of being a "good gamble" pretty easily.

[PhilG007]

In a ♠contract,the South hand is actually stronger as he can add an extra point for each
of the doubletons in the minor suits due to the ♠ fit. Declarer simply has to hope that the trumps will break favourably,
A 59.57%