[diana_eva]

Matchpoints, unknown opps

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Click Next in the diagram to follow the play up to where I got stuck. Got this terribly wrong. Any clues on which way to finesse or it's all a guess?

[alok c]

If East has ♣Q, then with 2Q.T & 11 pts he probably would have opened.Better to take finesse thru' West.

[Hanoi5]

I was gonna say that East was 2=6=3=2 and therefore the Queen should be with West but counting the points makes it even clearer.

[diana_eva]

OK, my thinking was similar at the table so I went down 2 for a 2% score

East had Qx and didn't open.

[Stephen Tu]

Why would you be down 2 instead of down 1?

[ggwhiz]

Right play, wrong result imo.

Just for fun in speedballs I often employ the Barry Crane rule, the Queen is under the Jack in the minors and over the Jack in the majors. Doesn't work here but it's been pretty amazing (4 or so out of 5) so far.

You have an inferential count that points to 3 clubs on your left and 2 on your right if the ♥2 lead is 4th best so the odds were with you. The pass on your right with the presumed 2-6-3-2 shape and 2 bullets is definitely random blowing of smoke though.

[661_Pete]

When you say, 'unknown opps', had they stated a system?

Had West false-carded? We still don't know, up to this point, whether the hearts are 5-5 or 4-6 - or do we? Even in my preferred Acol, I'd think twice about opening 1♥ in a 10-point hand with ♥Axxxx.

Pure bad luck, I think.

[diana_eva]

Stephen Tu, on 2016-August-29, 08:25, said:

Why would you be down 2 instead of down 1?

I was dumb enough to pull last trump, in the hopes of seeing someone discard a club. Hardly mattered though, down 1 was 12%

[diana_eva]

661_Pete, on 2016-August-29, 10:59, said:

When you say, 'unknown opps', had they stated a system?

Had West false-carded? We still don't know, up to this point, whether the hearts are 5-5 or 4-6 - or do we? Even in my preferred Acol, I'd think twice about opening 1♥ in a 10-point hand with ♥Axxxx.

Pure bad luck, I think.

unknown means I didnt know anything about them, their style, their opening range, or their ability to falsecard. Profile showed advanced, this can be anything from beginner to world class on BBO but usually it means a decent player in ACBL Speedball

[neilkaz]

diana_eva, on 2016-August-29, 11:32, said:

I was dumb enough to pull last trump, in the hopes of seeing someone discard a club. Hardly mattered though, down 1 was 12%

I would think that with certainty they'd just discard ♥ at that point . I'm surprised -1 was so bad since it seems you're in a routine contract and some others aren't going to find the queen.

[Stephen Tu]

diana_eva, on 2016-August-29, 11:32, said:

I was dumb enough to pull last trump, in the hopes of seeing someone discard a club. Hardly mattered though, down 1 was 12%

That's the kind of mistake that matters more in the long run though, stuff that's under completely your control whereas the Q location is going to be against the odds sometimes, I'd worry more about cleaning that up than not finding the queen. On most boards and as you get better competition down 1 will get lots of field protection and score a lot more than 12%. Consistently picking up your 30-35% or whatever instead of 2% is pretty important. You went with the odds for finding the Q, but the opps aren't going to discard enough to improve your odds enough to risk down 2.

[diana_eva]

Stephen Tu, on 2016-August-29, 13:32, said:

That's the kind of mistake that matters more in the long run though, stuff that's under completely your control whereas the Q location is going to be against the odds sometimes, I'd worry more about cleaning that up than not finding the queen. On most boards and as you get better competition down 1 will get lots of field protection and score a lot more than 12%. Consistently picking up your 30-35% or whatever instead of 2% is pretty important. You went with the odds for finding the Q, but the opps aren't going to discard enough to improve your odds enough to risk down 2.

True, I should have known they've got hearts to pitch.

[rmnka447]

At the moment of truth, you're in the dummy and know that the probability favors West holding the ♣ Q. But holding ♣ KJx in dummy opposite A109, did you lead the ♣ J and get a chance to gauge East's reaction to it? A lot of more modest players will either hitch holding the ♣ Q or automatically cover with the Q -- both of which can obviate the guess.

If you did lead the J, got no reaction or cover, overtook with the ♣ A, finessed the ♣ 10, then you did everything you could to find the Q and took the percentage play. I wouldn't worry about the bad result because in the long run it was the right play.

[diana_eva]

rmnka447, on 2016-August-29, 14:26, said:

At the moment of truth, you're in the dummy and know that the probability favors West holding the ♣ Q. But holding ♣ KJx in dummy opposite A109, did you lead the ♣ J and get a chance to gauge East's reaction to it? A lot of more modest players will either hitch holding the ♣ Q or automatically cover with the Q -- both of which can obviate the guess.

If you did lead the J, got no reaction or cover, overtook with the ♣ A, finessed the ♣ 10, then you did everything you could to find the Q and took the percentage play. I wouldn't worry about the bad result because in the long run it was the right play.

Yes I did play the J hoping they'll cover before finessing the other way.

[rmnka447]

diana_eva, on 2016-August-29, 14:29, said:

Yes I did play the J hoping they'll cover before finessing the other way.

You did all you could to sort out ♣.

The 12 % score was probably due to going down 2 and some players giving away the Q on the J play.

[The_Badger]

[Deleted]

[nekthen]

So we know Spades 3W 2E, Diamonds 3-3, Hearts are either 5-5 or 4W 6E and clubs are 3 2 or 2 3 East has 2 aces and west has KD. East chose not to open a weak 2. So I place him with 5 hearts and 3 diamonds and therefore play him for the Q. Right result, wrong reason!

In fact, as 3rd hand, you are more likely to open a weak 2 with 8 hcp than with 10. With a 10 count and short spades you may well hope for the hand to be passed out. So if East has 6 hearts he is likely to have qx in diamonds, if he has only 5 hearts then he has 3 diamonds so we play him for the Q

Of course, I confess that this is all after I know the result, but I think the logic is sound

[Caitlynne]

I would say that the Queen of clubs is most likely (actually, almost certainly) sitting with declarer's LHO. Here's why:

RHO passed rather than opening with 1H or 2H. RHO has shown 2 small spades, 3 diamonds to the Ace, and at least 5 hearts headed by the Ace. But, since LHO has shown 4 hearts including the 10, we may now place the Jack of hearts with RHO - if LHO held JTxxx of hearts, LHO certainly would have led the Jack - so we now know for certain that RHO's beginning distribution and hand was xx, AJxxxx, Axx, ?x. With the Queen of clubs, most would have opened 1H.

What's more, we also know that RHO began with xxx, Txxx, Kxx, ?xx. With the Queen of clubs, this would be a questionable raise to 3H. Without it, the raise to 3H is insane - super insane opposite a passed hand partner.

Notice too, that, just on the club split - ignoring all the other evidence - that LHO is a 3 to 2 favorite over RHO to hold any particular club card. Play a club to the Ace and finesse for the Queen through LHO. If it loses, that is truly unlucky AND WEIRD.

[aawk]

West passed first and then bids 2h in the sandwich. If west holds a 6 card h why didnt he open 2h. So the information what a openings bid of 2h shows is a extra clue needed. Also importend is if opponents open 3h is that allowed with a A in a suit outside h.

What do we know from west hand so far. A 2 card s, 4+ card h, 3 card d and a 0+ card c with 4 cards left in h and c.

If 2h would be strong east will have most likely a 6 card h (so a 2 card c) and you play the J of c if east doesnt cover use the tip from Zia (if the dont cover they dont have it) and take high in dummy and finess over west.

If 2h would be weak east will have most likely a 3 card c you start with high in c in the dummy and then play the J and finess over east.

If 3h is not allowed with a A then east has most likely a singelton c and you start with the J and if not coverd finess over west.

Still remains why did east pass and then give a overcall with 2 aces holding a 2533, 2632 or 2731 pattern. Most likely 2h was a overcall to show partner a lead against 3nt holding xx AJxxx Axx Qxx. Against good players i would finess over east even if the J is not coverd and use the tip from Zia if you dont have a clue about the playing strength of opponents.