[FelicityR]

 cherdano, on 2020-July-26, 06:32, said:

Cyberyeti, can you point to ONE recent example where the UK government claimed that people who do not (yet) have symptoms are not very contagious? Just one?

Asymptomatic coronavirus carriers are contagious, but perhaps less contagious as their own immune systems are coping better with the covid-19 virus thus decreasing the viral load that can be transmitted to other people. With a smaller viral load available to infect, contagion is not as severe - this has been proved with other respiratory diseases such as SARS.

In turn, many people who are relatively healthy can perhaps cope with this level of covid-19 and become asymptomatic themselves with few signs of the illness, and they will also have smaller viral loads to infect other people, etc.

Unfortunately the problems probably occur when viral load exposure is high, by being around many asymptomatic people who also have the virus or by being in contact with one person (or a few) who have high viral loads themselves.

[hrothgar]

 FelicityR, on 2020-July-26, 13:48, said:

Asymptomatic coronavirus carriers are contagious, but perhaps less contagious as their own immune systems are coping better with the covid-19 virus thus decreasing the viral load that can be transmitted to other people. With a smaller viral load available to infect, contagion is not as severe - this has been proved with other respiratory diseases such as SARS.

In turn, many people who are relatively healthy can perhaps cope with this level of covid-19 and become asymptomatic themselves with few signs of the illness, and they will also have smaller viral loads to infect other people, etc.

Unfortunately the problems probably occur when viral load exposure is high, by being around many asymptomatic people who also have the virus or by being in contact with one person (or a few) who have high viral loads themselves.

Yes, but Cyberyeti is talking about people who are presymptomatic as well

[pilowsky]

Problems arise when people that do not understand how biology works get a piece of information like this and think:

Asymptomatic with the virus - less contagious - wear a mask - no problem.

WRONG - are you familiar with typhoid mary? the broad st pump, undercooked burger meat?

Just because something LOOKS OK

does not mean that it is OK

some people can be super-spreaders with no symptoms at all
the water may not be safe to drink
the food might taste good but make you sick

Wake up and smell the roses. Don't get buried 6 feet under them.

[PassedOut]

 Chas_P, on 2020-July-25, 18:26, said:

Thank you guys so much for the entertainment. This is more fun than watching a monkey trying to f$$k a football.

A top HHS aide’s last job was ‘Labradoodle breeder.’ He’s one of many unqualified appointees.

Quote

EARLY ON in the coronavirus pandemic, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar assigned a top aide to run the day-to-day U.S. response. The aide’s occupation before his ascension to his prominent post? Labradoodle breeder.

That is only one of the absurd and alarming examples of unqualified or otherwise dangerous political appointees carrying out critical duties in the Trump administration — and the worst part is, the public isn’t even aware of many of them. The United States government employs some 4,000 political appointees, more than any other industrialized democracy. Approximately 1,200 must be confirmed by the Senate, yet thousands remain who can be installed in their positions in the shadows.

The man responsible for overseeing the child separation policy at the border, for instance, had never spent any time resettling refugees before he was put in charge of refugee resettlement. He was, however, an antiabortion advocate, which perhaps explains why he sparked scandal by trying to stop detained minors from getting abortions.

Currently, the White House is urging the hiring to a key Pentagon position of Rich Higgins, a conspiracy theorist fired from the National Security Council after propounding the theory that a “deep state” composed of the media, Black Lives Matter, Islamists, the United Nations and more was working together to undermine the president. The myth has stuck.

I'm not laughing.

[pilowsky]

You are not alone. He gained this qualification in Australia.

[johnu]

 PassedOut, on 2020-July-26, 16:28, said:

A top HHS aide’s last job was ‘Labradoodle breeder.’ He’s one of many unqualified appointees.


I'm not laughing.

The patronage system has to go. Remember Michael "Brownie" Brown who bungled the Katrina response as FEMA director. His main qualification was being an official in the Arabian Horse Association.

I won't even start to get into the nepotism of the Grifter in Chief, or his 1000+ other incompetent political appointees.

[barmar]

 johnu, on 2020-July-26, 18:21, said:

The patronage system has to go. Remember Michael "Brownie" Brown who bungled the Katrina response as FEMA director. His main qualification was being an official in the Arabian Horse Association.

I won't even start to get into the nepotism of the Grifter in Chief, or his 1000+ other incompetent political appointees.

It's even worse with Trump. His appointees aren't only incompetent, some are actively against their institutions. Betsy DeVos doesn't really believe in public schools, and he's now nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve, although she believes in returning to the gold standard and abolishing the central bank.

[pilowsky]

Patronage! Seriously? Now you notice?

I am famous for being scornful. Sarcasm is my metier, Like the other Dinsdale I am well-known as a master of litotes and aposiopesis, but give me a break. NOW you notice. with 100 days to go.

Anyway, Barron will probably replace Pence as the VP nominee on the ticket. Oh, I'm sorry - I mentioned a minor child - well pardon me. Will the Trump family recover from the devastation.

Trump that.

[shyams]

There is an old chestnut that goes something like "No good deed goes unpunished". Well, I feel it is time to make smerriman aware of his "good deed". ( )

This is what I'm referring to:

 smerriman, on 2020-July-15, 18:07, said:

A little off topic, but Pilowsky, paragraphs make a huge difference. It might be a good story but I find it almost impossible to read that wall of text.

Hitting enter twice (not just once) every so often makes things far more readable.

Before the above, I had no qualms skipping those poorly formatted posts full of drivel cos reading them was such strain. Since then, all posts have "paragraphs" (I'm being charitable here) which make my eyes want to go through the posts hoping to garner something useful or fun. Alas, they still are full of drivel.

So I blame smerriman . Stephen, I'm pulling your leg -- please don't ban me

[pilowsky]

I know

right

you

do

have

Stephen

to

blame

[thepossum]

I cant be bothered to go back and read what this is about but are we talking about those posts where people copy and paste some huge piece of text from somewhere wihout any/much comment of their own. I just ignore them usually

[pilowsky]

No, Shyams is attempting to abuse me. smerriman, who makes a point of checking other peoples prose, once commented that my posts would be improved if I used more paragraphs. I agreed.

Shyams thinks that he is being clever. At least, I think that's what is going on. It can be difficult to tell.

Are you clever Shyams? Say something clever for us.

[cherdano]

 FelicityR, on 2020-July-26, 13:48, said:

Asymptomatic coronavirus carriers are contagious, but perhaps less contagious as their own immune systems are coping better with the covid-19 virus thus decreasing the viral load that can be transmitted to other people. With a smaller viral load available to infect, contagion is not as severe - this has been proved with other respiratory diseases such as SARS.

Possibly, but that argument doesn't apply to pre-symptomatic carriers. Once your immune system starts fighting the virus, it will immediately start slowing its growth and quickly start reversing it, thus decreasing the viral load. That's why people are much less infectious already a few days after symptoms set in.

[cherdano]

 cherdano, on 2020-July-26, 06:32, said:

Cyberyeti, can you point to ONE recent example where the UK government claimed that people who do not (yet) have symptoms are not very contagious? Just one?

Still waiting for Cyberyeti to tell us about ONE example there the UK government made such a claim.
If that's too high a bar, maybe you can tell us about ONE expert who said such a thing?

If you can't, maybe next time don't immediately get defensive and claim you are absolutely right because EVERY expert and THE UK GOVERNMENT says so when someone disagrees with you?

[pilowsky]

cherdano, do you have any actual qualifications? or, like Peter Navarro, are you just making this stuff up as you go along?

[hrothgar]

 pilowsky, on 2020-July-28, 04:29, said:

cherdano, do you have any actual qualifications? or, like Peter Navarro, are you just making this stuff up as you go along?

Peter Navarro has plenty of "qualifications".

He has a PhD
He is a tenured professor
He has a senior position in the American government

He's also a ***** loon.

What Cherdano has is a reputation.

He's been a member of the BBO community for decades
Those of us who are members here know him, know his posting history, and are well able to judge the accuracy of his claims.

[pilowsky]

What Peter Navarro has is a surname and a salary.
Not sure about cherdano's quaifcations

[cherdano]

 pilowsky, on 2020-July-28, 04:29, said:

cherdano, do you have any actual qualifications?

Plenty of qualifications, but none are relevant to coronavirus. (Well, maybe occasionally relevant - being a mathematician makes it a little bit easier to call BS on, sorry, to see the limitations of mathematical models. Or "models", in the case of IHME - sorry to digress.)

The relevant skill, however, is that I can read articles and listen to podcasts and that I can usually correctly extract information from what I am reading or listening to, unlike others in this forum. And I've read or listened to plenty about coronavirus, explained by virologists, epidemiologists, public health experts, medical doctors with relevant expertise, starting in middle January (because I had agreed to attend a conference in China).

Now, I do get things wrong. Did I? Happy for you to point out errors in what I wrote. Did the UK government claim that coronavirus carriers are not very infectious before symptom onset?

[cherdano]

Oh, lol, I had already forgotten that pillowsky had claimed the non-sensical 2-week incubation period above.

Here are some resources that allowed me, with my skills and qualifications, to see that this claim is non-sense:

Here is a very early estimate from one of the SAGE groups (UK government scientific advisory group for covid-19):

Quote

15. The incubation period is the delay between an individual becoming infected and
developing symptoms. Current estimates give an average incubation period of 5 days
(range 1–11 days). This is approximately twice as long as for influenza. The maximum
incubation period is used to define the period required for isolation, currently believed to
be 14 days.

https://assets.publi...nt-03022020.pdf

So did this hold up?

Here is the "RKI Steckbrief" (RKI = German equivalent to the CDC, one of the first to validate a coronavirus PCR test oustide China), last updated July 24:

Quote

10. Inkubationszeit und serielles Intervall
Die Inkubationszeit gibt die Zeit von der Ansteckung bis zum Beginn der Erkrankung an. Sie liegt im Mittel (Median) bei 5–6 Tagen (Spannweite 1 bis 14 Tage) (45, 196).

https://www.rki.de/D...76792bodyText10

You can't read German? Here is the equivalent information from CDC:

Quote

Based on existing literature, the incubation period (the time from exposure to development of symptoms) of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g., MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) ranges from 2–14 days.

( https://www.cdc.gov/...ov/hcp/faq.html )

Don't trust those national institutes with their political agendas? Here is the WHO:

Quote

The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming infected) and
symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, however can be up to 14 days.

(https://www.who.int/...vrsn=5ae25bc7_2 )

But I guess since pillowsky has qualifications and said the incubation period is two weeks, the SPI-M-O, RKI, CDC and WHO are all wrong.

[pilowsky]

Thanks, question answered.