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Safe or Sorry IMP lead

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 03:29



8 board match converted to VPs. Division 1 of a national online league.

2NT is explained as "maximum with 4 hearts and no useful doubleton". Presumably this will be chosen on most maximums. If it helps you think you are slightly ahead in the match and in the other room your teammates are playing a weak NT, so it will go 1m-1H-3H perhaps. But you want to make the best lead ignoring all the paraphernalia. What do you go for?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 04:35

Lamford asks "8 board match converted to VPs. Division 1 of a national online league. 2NT is explained as "maximum with 4 hearts and no useful doubleton". Presumably this will be chosen on most maximums. If it helps you think you are slightly ahead in the match and in the other room your teammates are playing a weak NT, so it will go 1m-1H-3H perhaps. But you want to make the best lead ignoring all the paraphernalia. What do you go for?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I rank
1. J = Safe-looking.
2. 8 = Might pick up partner's J.
3. 3 = Might work. Partner is unlikely to double dummy's bids even with ATx or AQx.
4. K = Enterprising. Great if it works.

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#3 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 04:36

Hmmmm, we have 3 incredibly dangerous suits to lead from or a safe sequence. So the answer is probably the K...

Did it perhaps go K->A-> ruff with a later losing finesse after a coughing fit from East?
(-: Zel :-)

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#4 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 06:51

Hi,

I would go with a spade.
The king of clubs is certainly an option, we do control trumps to a certain degree,
Axx would be better, but Kxx is also ok, we still have a trump, if it goes Ace of
trumps, and another round of trumps. The King needs either the Ace or the Queen of Clubs.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#5 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 06:51

I would lead J. If I were asked to choose a different suit, I'd probably lead 7 because it is least likely to cost a trick.

The dealer+vul combination says this is Board #7 and the table info suggests N/S are likely to be leading. In that case, I really think a minor suit lead is too risky to consider. If I assessed that we were (say) 15-20 IMPs behind with only 1 more board to go, I might consider whether I should risk leading K. This is definitely not it.
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#6 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 08:00

My motto is (for what its worth) at IMPs is to always lead safe except when that option is not available. The opponents may be stretching to 4 so I'd always lead the J (Boring, I know, but my teammates won't be impressed if I lead the K and it lets the opponents make the contract.)
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#7 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-June-30, 14:33

K because this is a poll question.
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#8 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-01, 05:20

My simulation, published on Bridgewinners, strongly suggests that the king of clubs is a country mile ahead of the alternatives. What I wrote there, for convenience:

I don't think that factors such as the possible match score, which is a movable feast, or the no-trump range in the other room, makes much difference. I was interested in this from a bridge point of view, and will leave the discussions of the Greek alphabet to people far more intelligent than me. So, I dealt 100 hands using Bridge Analyser and the following parameters.
a) they have at least nine hearts
b) the opener has 16-17
c) the responder has 7-10 (I don't think he is limited to this, but we are not likely to beat it if he has more)
d) partner has 0-4 points in diamonds
e) both sides play double dummy (not ideal, but a lot easier than plodding through).

Forrester once wrote (I tried to find it online but could not) in maybe his book for Batsford, which I edited, that one should play partner for a single card if that will usually beat the contract, or secondly for two specific cards is that will usually beat the contract. Here, if the ace of hearts is with the no-trump bidder, which occurred on 64% of hands, then you usually only need partner to have the ace of clubs to beat it. He only has about a seven count, so that is not so likely, but given that he doesn't have much in diamonds, he is around 11% to have the ace of clubs with the ace of hearts with declarer. But the other big way that the king of clubs wins is when partner has the queen of clubs and a pointed suit ace (more often in spades). This occurred in a further 8% of hands. Not a great result, but the alternative lead needs a huge amount as well. Declarer may well have a heart loser, and may well take a losing club finesse, and partner may well have a pointed suit ace, but you are peering over the horizon to find the other trick. You beat it 19% of the time with the king of clubs lead, 4% with any other lead. A small sample, but that is my lot! And declarer will guess the hand perfectly on other leads, so the double dummy definitely biases the test a bit, I have to admit. And when I checked some more there were a further 5% of hands on which I could also switch to the king of clubs after winning a heart trick, which improved the passive lead further.

My research convinced me that not only was the king of clubs the right lead, but, at IMPs, the alternatives were just hopeless. I am interested to learn what was right. I will certainly be leading the king of clubs on similar hands in future.

I have since learned that the king of clubs was the only winning lead. Partner has the queen of clubs and the ace of spades. But one swallow does not make a summer, as the interviewer said to Monica Lewinsky applying for a job as an accounts clerk.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#9 User is offline   dokoko 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 03:50

View Postlamford, on 2020-July-01, 05:20, said:

My simulation, published on Bridgewinners, ...


I failed to find it. Could you post the link, please?
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 07:06

View Postdokoko, on 2020-July-05, 03:50, said:

I failed to find it. Could you post the link, please?

It was verbatim as above, under a thread, "A field day for the heat".

I wrote: "What I wrote there, for convenience:", so finding it gained nothing!
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#11 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 14:29

View Postlamford, on 2020-July-09, 07:06, said:

I wrote: "What I wrote there, for convenience:", so finding it gained nothing!

.. other than 61 comments of interest :)
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#12 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 15:45

View Postsmerriman, on 2020-July-09, 14:29, said:

.. other than 61 comments of interest :)

I thought he was asking about my simulation. "it" referred to that.
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