[AL78]

MPs

---

A balanced 19 count and completely powerless. There is no defence to 3♣, making exactly for a 36% board for us, others going to 5♣ off, or 4♥ our way one off. We only beat the two pairs who let 10 tricks through in the same contract. It is one of those hands where whoever gets the plus score does well.

[sfi]

North might have ventured a heart call at some point after South doubled.

[johnu]

sfi, on 2020-July-12, 17:30, said:

North might have ventured a heart call at some point after South doubled.

Maybe North was a GIB, or took lessons from a GIB?

[nullve]

sfi, on 2020-July-12, 17:30, said:

North might have ventured a heart call at some point after South doubled.

Yes.

---

(North is just balancing, so South shouldn't get excited.)

Is 3♥ safe? No, but neither is passing (which many confuse with 'not really doing anything (I can be blamed for')).

[smerriman]

Why is West opening 1♣ and reversing into 2♦? You always seem to have very strange opponents.

[hrothgar]

AL78, on 2020-July-12, 15:01, said:

MPs

---

A balanced 19 count and completely powerless. There is no defence to 3♣, making exactly for a 36% board for us, others going to 5♣ off, or 4♥ our way one off. We only beat the two pairs who let 10 tricks through in the same contract. It is one of those hands where whoever gets the plus score does well.

North needs to take a bid.

North has a stiff in a suit where their partner made a T/O double.
The conditional probability that partner is sitting on a balanced hand that is too strong for an immediate NT overcall is really high.

Add on the fact that you're sitting on a 6 card heart suit and a 3!H bid is really really attractive

[FelicityR]

AL78, on 2020-July-12, 15:01, said:

...or 4♥ our way one off.

It actually goes one off if West leads a ♦ in 3♥ (though a ♦ lead is highly unlikely) so either North was either clairvoyant or had a case of the 'match point yips' knowing that 3♥X may have resulted in that dreaded match point score of -200

[akwoo]

I simply couldn't play more than a few sessions with someone who would pass out 3♣ as North at MPs. Not that it's particularly atrocious (though I think it's wrong) - we'd just be incompatible.

[msjennifer]

Sir,
We did face similar situations,(We mean vulnerability and both LHO and then RHO bidding) .We then developed the 1NT or 2NT (on say 1S-P-2S) overcall to show 18/20HCP and a fully balanced hand like the one under consideration,with normal transfers ,Lebensohl etc.so that we could possibly circumvent.However,I do frankly admit that such a development may not be to every ones liking.North ,in this deal at least can use the transfer bid and the strong hand will be the declarer in 3H.Thanks

[msjennifer]

SRY.Duplkicate deleted

[Tramticket]

A more normal auction might be: (1♦)-Pass-(1♠)-Dbl-(2♣)-2♥-(3♣)-3♥-All Pass

[AL78]

I'm guessing my partner didn't want to bid 3♥ is because on the auction, it is impossible for me to hold the hand I have, and there is a fair chance of going one or two off doubled if I have some semi-balanced 15 count. West has effectively psyched a reverse.

[AL78]

smerriman, on 2020-July-12, 19:11, said:

Why is West opening 1♣ and reversing into 2♦? You always seem to have very strange opponents.

Ha ha, you've noticed.

I wonder if it is me that is behind the times in terms of bidding theory, because it is amazing how often these apparent out of the way actions seem to work well, or at the very least don't cost. :-) At my local club, the standard is very mixed, and there are players who take liberties because people in the main are scared to double partscores.

[akwoo]

AL78, on 2020-July-13, 02:32, said:

Ha ha, you've noticed.

I wonder if it is me that is behind the times in terms of bidding theory, because it is amazing how often these apparent out of the way actions seem to work well, or at the very least don't cost. :-) At my local club, the standard is very mixed, and there are players who take liberties because people in the main are scared to double partscores.

From North's point of view, there are at least 17 total tricks, and most likely 18 or 19, on this hand.

If you believe opponents' bidding, then they've concluded they don't have a game. I don't think they're suddenly going to double 3H.

You can't claim to believe opponents' bidding on the reverse and then also claim to not believe opponents' bidding on the last pass.

It's true that against opponents with a reputation for doubling and picking up 200s bidding 3H might not be such a good idea, but I wouldn't worry about that against random opponents even in a good MP field. (When I was in another city for 5 months, I had a partner who really did have a nose for +200 and tweaked a few bits of his bidding system(s) to prioritize getting that score.)

One of the things about club bridge in a mixed field is that, in order to win, you really do have to play your opponents. If you don't remember that you can't trust this guy's reverses, the other equally good players who do remember are going to do better than you. Even in a weak field where you can average 60+, the pair that plays just as well as you but remembers each of the weak pairs' foibles and knows how to take advantage of them is going to average 65+.

[nullve]

Tiny simulation at http://dealergib1.br...aler/dealer.php using the following mostly self-explanatory Dealer code:

predeal north S962, HJT9763, DJ98, C9
westHand = hcp(west)>15 and hcp(west)<19 and clubs(west)>4 and diamonds(west)==4 and spades(west)<3 and hearts(west)<4
eastHand = hcp(east)>4 and hcp(east)<8 and clubs(east)>1 and hearts(east)<4 and spades(east)==4
southHand = (hcp(south)>10 and diamonds(south)>3 and hearts(south)>3) or (hcp(south)>18 and shape(south, any 4333 + any 4432 + any 5332))
condition westHand and eastHand and southHand
action frequency(tricks(north, hearts),0,13)

Result:

Frequency :
    0	       0
    1	       0
    2	       0
    3	       0
    4	       0
    5	       0
    6	       5
    7	       8
    8	      24
    9	      13
   10	       5
   11	       1
   12	       0
   13	       0
Generated 10000000 hands
Produced 56 hands
Initial random seed 1594630598
Time needed   34.017 sec

I have assumed that the EW bids have their normal (Acol-ish or SAYC-ish) meanings, though.

[DavidKok]

Perhaps this is a bad time to add that it has become increasingly popular to play a double in this position as showing the other two suits, instead of a strong hand. Regardless I would bid with the North hand over 2♦, and there is absolutely no way I'm passing 3♣ if I failed to enter on the previous round (maybe I fell asleep).

As for your opponents goofing around (apparently regularly), I wouldn't be too worried about that. As long as your partner is reliable you will gain a solid edge in the long run. I'll happily give poor opponents lucky breaks every now and again if it means I also get to profit when their inferior approach collapses, which tautologically happens more frequently.

[AL78]

akwoo, on 2020-July-13, 02:59, said:

From North's point of view, there are at least 17 total tricks, and most likely 18 or 19, on this hand.

If you believe opponents' bidding, then they've concluded they don't have a game. I don't think they're suddenly going to double 3H.

You can't claim to believe opponents' bidding on the reverse and then also claim to not believe opponents' bidding on the last pass.

It's true that against opponents with a reputation for doubling and picking up 200s bidding 3H might not be such a good idea, but I wouldn't worry about that against random opponents even in a good MP field. (When I was in another city for 5 months, I had a partner who really did have a nose for +200 and tweaked a few bits of his bidding system(s) to prioritize getting that score.)

One of the things about club bridge in a mixed field is that, in order to win, you really do have to play your opponents. If you don't remember that you can't trust this guy's reverses, the other equally good players who do remember are going to do better than you. Even in a weak field where you can average 60+, the pair that plays just as well as you but remembers each of the weak pairs' foibles and knows how to take advantage of them is going to average 65+.

This wasn't playing in my (BBO based) normal club, this was some EBU short session thing that my partner expressed an interest in playing in. Neither of us had any idea of the characteristics of our opposition, so no way to known whether either opponent genuinely had their bid.

[Vampyr]

DavidKok, on 2020-July-13, 03:17, said:

Perhaps this is a bad time to add that it has become increasingly popular to play a double in this position as showing the other two suits, instead of a strong hand.

A 1NT overcall In this position is usually about 17-19 balanced, and with more you have to double. Similarly a suit overcall will of course have a higher limit than usual, as you are wandering into a live auction. But still if you have a hand better than your upper limit you will start with a double. What else would you suggest?

[DavidKok]

Vampyr, on 2020-July-13, 06:05, said:

A 1NT overcall In this position is usually about 17-19 balanced, and with more you have to double. Similarly a suit overcall will of course have a higher limit than usual, as you are wandering into a live auction. But still if you have a hand better than your upper limit you will start with a double. What else would you suggest?

Actually I play both double and 1NT to show hearts and diamonds, with double showing more emphasis on hearts (longer, or stronger if equal length) and 1NT more emphasis on diamonds (idem. This bears resemblance to Raptor 1NT overcalls). With strong hands (let's say 17+ and a NT shape) a pass seems best for now - 1♠ is forcing anyway so I get to bid again, and it is important to be aware that partner is likely to be flat broke. 19 points balanced opposite 2-3 plays horribly unless partner has a long suit, especially with opener sitting over your values. I've seen a 17-19 NT overcall in this position once, which was promptly mocked by the opponents for being a few decades out of style (I had no idea).

Or put differently, I like to bid shape first. I have no shape, game is unlikely and I get to bid again anyway, so I can live with a pass.

[umaranade]

FelicityR, on 2020-July-12, 22:05, said:

It actually goes one off if West leads a ♦ in 3♥ (though a ♦ lead is highly unlikely) so either North was either clairvoyant or had a case of the 'match point yips' knowing that 3♥X may have resulted in that dreaded match point score of -200

He does not go down even on a diamond lead if East does not back a spade on ruffing the third trick. If he blindly leads a club which is his partners suit , Declarer eliminates clubs and then leads a spade from dummy and if East does not put up the Jack ducks it end playing West for aR and D or lead into SAQ. And if East plays the Jack Declarer puts up the Queen and again West is endlayed having to lead from 108 with the 9x in the dummy.