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Do you come in?

#41 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2020-September-23, 10:08

Single dummy analysis is tedious and impractical since we don't have a trusted program capable of it available at this time so it can't be automated.

On relatively simple auctions we can figure out how the bidding will go; west bids spades with spades and certain level depending on hcp and additional shape, without spades bids diamonds or clubs or leb on way to diamonds or clubs or if strong will get us to 3nt. South raises with some criteria over pass and some different criteria over double.

As for the play, various people like Pavlicek have compared dd results to real life results, and found that while not same (declarer does better than should at lower levels, worse at slam), it's close enough to accept that dd results over a large sample are a reasonable estimate of what success rates would be in real life. Of course any one deal can be drastically wrong, but averaged over many deals the tricks dropped by defense are mostly matched by declarer, so actual success percentage is likely within a few percent.
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#42 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2020-September-23, 12:10

I think it's a pretty clear pass, but that's just me.
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