[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2020-November-10, 07:29, said:

No I would not, but I misread your earlier post as saying that you would - sorry.
I detest doubling without 4 card in oM and my partner knows that, but I also recognise that such rigidity is considered excessive by many here so I was looking for a more orthodox guideline.
As soon as I have time I will rework the double criteria to be more restrictive and take at least the 6-card minor overcalls out of partner's pass.
Then if possible have a look at what happens if they take the push to 3♠.

I would suggest if opener has 6 or more spades he will regularly take the push.

Also is it normal to a) not bid 2♠ with a 4333 with 3 spades b) bid 2♠ with 4 spades in a 4333 (I don't play enough 5M to be sure)

I'm presuming strong NT is being played to avoid the complication of hands that would have opened 1N with 5♠(332).

[nige1]

apollo1201 'MPs, all green, how do you rate X? And if it was IMPs?
++++++++++++++++++++

Assuming, as MikeH recommends, that partner would bid 2N with 4-4 in the minors ...
It's close but at MPs, I'd double; while at imps, I'd pass.

---

[sfi]

Sure, there are a lot of warning signs. But competitive hands at MPs at this vulnerability are essentially races to see who can score -50. I don't think I can do that by passing so I kind of have to double and give the opposition a chance to get things wrong.

[pescetom]

mycroft, on 2020-November-10, 10:17, said:

I would suggest to the OP that you would always want to listen to MikeH. His record as a player is clearly superior to mine, and to most of the posters here.

However, having listened to Mike, I still would double here (with trepidation), at least partly because 2NT by partner is a scramble for us. The reason for that is that a) that 3442 nice 12-count is an auto-pass (I find it much scarier to double with that hand than with the balancer's, especially when opener hasn't passed yet); and b) I don't have stamina to waste on these kinds of borderline decisions; so I let the system carry me here, and save my thinking for when the system can't carry me (which could easily be in the play to 3♦x where I try to take the eighth trick). Is that a weakness? Of course it is. What if the system is wrong? Well, then we change it (and I will then follow that).

I'm better at judgement than I was. But it is still easier for me to memorize system and let it carry me than to have to judgement-think more hands. For others, the line is (sometimes very) different.

I'm pretty much in line with your philosophy and also weaknesses/inclinations. Having said that, I would never have been in a hurry to double here and my doubts before running a sim were pretty much in line with Mike, even if my own double strongly privileges 4 cards in other major. So I was surprised when the first sim made things look so favourable.

Cor, contritum, quasi cinis... I just reworked the sim to be more precise in conditions for a pass by North (taking out 6-card minors and assigning more orthodox HCP limits to various hearts holdings) and it now looks much less favourable to double. I will post it below, as always please point out any errors before seeking for conclusions.

[pescetom]

Here is a second attempt at simulation.
It makes more orthodox assumptions about partner passing with 3-card hearts.
Partner will no longer pass with a decent 6+card minor.
It still assumes partner will take out our double to a minor, never NT or pass.
It still assumes opponents will never double our takeout.
It can now evaluate what happens if they take the push to 3 or 4 level.

#
# "I'd rather be -1100 than -110" - Larry Cohen.
# v2.0
#
predeal south SK5, HKT84, DK952, CT95
E_open1S = hcp(east)>11 and hcp(east)<=19 and spades(east)>=5
E_pass2S = hcp(east)<16
W_raise2S = hcp(west)>=6 and hcp(west)<=9 and spades(west)==3
N_pass = (((clubs(north)<6) and (diamonds(north)<6)) or hcp(north)<6) and ((hearts(north)<3 and hcp(north)<=14) or (hearts(north)==3 and hcp(north)<=11) or (hearts(north)>=4 and hcp(north)<7))
N_suit_C = clubs(north) >= diamonds(north)
N_suit_D = diamonds(north) > clubs(north)
produce 100

##### unquote ONE condition according to minor takeout suit
condition E_open1S and W_raise2S and N_pass and E_pass2S and N_suit_C
#condition E_open1S and W_raise2S and N_pass and E_pass2S and N_suit_D

E_tricks_S= tricks(east,spades)
N_tricks_C= tricks(north,clubs)
N_tricks_D= tricks(north,diamonds)
E_score_x2S= score(nv,x2S,E_tricks_S)
E_score_x3S= score(nv,x3S,E_tricks_S)
E_score_x4S= score(nv,x4S,E_tricks_S)

##### unquote ONE N score according to minor takeout suit in condition
N_score_x3m = score(nv,x3C,N_tricks_C)
#N_score_x3m = score(nv,x3D,N_tricks_D)

##### unquote ONE delta according to score comparison desired
delta = N_score_x3m - E_score_x2S
#delta = N_score_x3m - E_score_x3S
#delta = E_score_x2S - E_score_x3S
#delta = E_score_x2S - E_score_x4S

outcome = delta == 0 ? 0 : (delta > 0 ? 1 : -1)

##### unquote ONE action (or none to see hands)
#action frequency(E_tricks_S,5,10)
#action frequency(N_tricks_C,5,10)
#action frequency(N_tricks_D,5,10)
#action frequency(outcome,-1,1)
#action printes ("delta=",delta," x3m=",N_score_x3m," 
 x2S=",E_score_x2S," x3S=",E_score_x3S," x4S=",E_score_x4S,\n)

[pescetom]

As an initial sanity check, here are 100 hands where North would pass.
I have scruples about a few, but that probably balances out with a few where he would not.

1.
T 7 2               A Q 8 4 3           K 5                 J 9 6 
6                   A 9 3               K T 8 4             Q J 7 5 2 
A J T 8 3           7 6                 K 9 5 2             Q 4 
A 7 6 3             K J 8               T 9 5               Q 4 2 

   2.
A 8 7               J T 9 3 2           K 5                 Q 6 4 
7 6 3               J 2                 K T 8 4             A Q 9 5 
Q 8 6 4             A                   K 9 5 2             J T 7 3 
Q J 8               A K 4 3 2           T 9 5               7 6 

   3.
J 8 2               A Q 9 7 6           K 5                 T 4 3 
J 7 3               A Q 2               K T 8 4             9 6 5 
A 8 6 3             T 4                 K 9 5 2             Q J 7 
K Q 7               J 4 3               T 9 5               A 8 6 2 

   4.
J 8 3               A Q 9 6 2           K 5                 T 7 4 
Q 5                 7 6 3 2             K T 8 4             A J 9 
Q J T 4 3           A 8                 K 9 5 2             7 6 
A J 8               Q 3                 T 9 5               K 7 6 4 2 

   5.
Q 6                 A J 9 8 7 3         K 5                 T 4 2 
6 3 2               A J                 K T 8 4             Q 9 7 5 
A Q J 8 3           T                   K 9 5 2             7 6 4 
Q 8 3               K J 7 2             T 9 5               A 6 4 

   6.
J 9 8               T 7 4 3 2           K 5                 A Q 6 
Q 5                 A 3                 K T 8 4             J 9 7 6 2 
A J T 7 3           8 6                 K 9 5 2             Q 4 
Q 4 2               A K J 7             T 9 5               8 6 3 

   7.
6 2                 A Q J 9 7 3         K 5                 T 8 4 
A 6                 Q 5 3               K T 8 4             J 9 7 2 
Q T 8 7 4           -                   K 9 5 2             A J 6 3 
K J 4 3             A Q 8 7             T 9 5               6 2 

   8.
J 6 3               A Q T 7 2           K 5                 9 8 4 
J 5 3               A 9 6               K T 8 4             Q 7 2 
Q J 8 4             7                   K 9 5 2             A T 6 3 
K J 3               A 8 7 4             T 9 5               Q 6 2 

   9.
J 4 2               A Q T 9 7           K 5                 8 6 3 
J 9 6               Q 5 3               K T 8 4             A 7 2 
A 6 4 3             J 7                 K 9 5 2             Q T 8 
J 6 4               A Q 7               T 9 5               K 8 3 2 

  10.
A J 6               Q 9 8 3 2           K 5                 T 7 4 
9                   A 6                 K T 8 4             Q J 7 5 3 2 
T 7 6 4 3           A Q 8               K 9 5 2             J 
A K 8 3             6 4 2               T 9 5               Q J 7 

  11.
Q 9 8               A T 6 4 3           K 5                 J 7 2 
A 3 2               Q 6                 K T 8 4             J 9 7 5 
Q J T 8 3           -                   K 9 5 2             A 7 6 4 
J 4                 A K 8 7 6 3         T 9 5               Q 2 

  12.
A 2                 Q 9 8 7 6 4         K 5                 J T 3 
9 6 3               A Q 7               K T 8 4             J 5 2 
A J T 8 3           Q 6                 K 9 5 2             7 4 
Q 8 4               A 3                 T 9 5               K J 7 6 2 

  13.
Q 7 4               A J 6 3 2           K 5                 T 9 8 
A                   J 9 7 3 2           K T 8 4             Q 6 5 
A J T 8 3           7                   K 9 5 2             Q 6 4 
8 7 4 2             A K                 T 9 5               Q J 6 3 

  14.
Q J T               A 9 7 3 2           K 5                 8 6 4 
A 9 5               Q J 6 3             K T 8 4             7 2 
A 8 7 3             Q                   K 9 5 2             J T 6 4 
7 3 2               K J 8               T 9 5               A Q 6 4 

  15.
Q 6                 A J T 4 3 2         K 5                 9 8 7 
6 5                 A J                 K T 8 4             Q 9 7 3 2 
A 7 6 4 3           J T 8               K 9 5 2             Q 
J 8 7 6             A 2                 T 9 5               K Q 4 3 

  16.
7 4 2               Q J T 8 3           K 5                 A 9 6 
A 9 2               Q 7 5               K T 8 4             J 6 3 
A 8 6 3             T                   K 9 5 2             Q J 7 4 
K 8 6               A Q J 4             T 9 5               7 3 2 

  17.
8 7 6               A Q 9 4 2           K 5                 J T 3 
J 5                 A Q 9 3 2           K T 8 4             7 6 
T 8 7 4 3           Q                   K 9 5 2             A J 6 
A K Q               4 3                 T 9 5               J 8 7 6 2 

  18.
8 3                 A Q 9 6 4 2         K 5                 J T 7 
Q 9                 A                   K T 8 4             J 7 6 5 3 2 
Q J T 8 4           6 3                 K 9 5 2             A 7 
A J 7 2             K 8 6 3             T 9 5               Q 4 

  19.
J T 7               A Q 9 8 6           K 5                 4 3 2 
7 2                 A 9 3               K T 8 4             Q J 6 5 
Q J T 4 3           8                   K 9 5 2             A 7 6 
A 6 4               K Q 7 3             T 9 5               J 8 2 

  20.
J 9                 A Q 7 4 3 2         K 5                 T 8 6 
7 3 2               A Q 9               K T 8 4             J 6 5 
A T 6 4 3           Q J                 K 9 5 2             8 7 
K Q 8               4 2                 T 9 5               A J 7 6 3 

  21.
4 3 2               A Q J 9 8           K 5                 T 7 6 
Q J 2               A 9 5               K T 8 4             7 6 3 
J 7 6 3             Q 8                 K 9 5 2             A T 4 
A 8 4               Q 7 2               T 9 5               K J 6 3 

  22.
9 7 6               A Q J 8 4           K 5                 T 3 2 
Q 9 3               6 5 2               K T 8 4             A J 7 
Q J T 8 3           -                   K 9 5 2             A 7 6 4 
K 6                 A Q J 8 4           T 9 5               7 3 2 

  23.
T 9 8               A J 7 6 3           K 5                 Q 4 2 
J 7                 A 5                 K T 8 4             Q 9 6 3 2 
A Q T 7 3           J 6 4               K 9 5 2             8 
A 8 3               Q 7 2               T 9 5               K J 6 4 

  24.
8 4 3               Q J 9 7 6           K 5                 A T 2 
A                   Q                   K T 8 4             J 9 7 6 5 3 2 
Q J T 8 7           A 4 3               K 9 5 2             6 
A Q 7 2             K 8 4 3             T 9 5               J 6 

  25.
J 9 8               A Q T 3 2           K 5                 7 6 4 
J 6 2               A Q 7               K T 8 4             9 5 3 
Q 7 6 3             T 8                 K 9 5 2             A J 4 
A J 8               K 6 4               T 9 5               Q 7 3 2 

  26.
J 8 3               A Q T 9 4           K 5                 7 6 2 
A                   9 7 2               K T 8 4             Q J 6 5 3 
A Q J 6 3           T                   K 9 5 2             8 7 4 
8 7 6 3             A Q J 4             T 9 5               K 2 

  27.
T 3 2               A Q 8 6 4           K 5                 J 9 7 
A 5 3               J 9 2               K T 8 4             Q 7 6 
Q J 8 7 4           A                   K 9 5 2             T 6 3 
K 4                 J 8 6 3             T 9 5               A Q 7 2 

  28.
J 8                 A Q T 7 3 2         K 5                 9 6 4 
A 7 6               J                   K T 8 4             Q 9 5 3 2 
Q 8 7 6 3           T 4                 K 9 5 2             A J 
K 6 3               A J 8 4             T 9 5               Q 7 2 

  29.
T 4 2               A J 9 8 7           K 5                 Q 6 3 
A J 7               6 3                 K T 8 4             Q 9 5 2 
T 8 6 4             A Q                 K 9 5 2             J 7 3 
Q J 8               A 7 6 3             T 9 5               K 4 2 

  30.
4 3                 A Q J T 8 7         K 5                 9 6 2 
9 2                 Q 6 3               K T 8 4             A J 7 5 
A T 8 6 4           J 7                 K 9 5 2             Q 3 
A J 7 4             K 2                 T 9 5               Q 8 6 3 

  31.
Q 8 6               A J 9 4 2           K 5                 T 7 3 
J 3 2               A Q 5               K T 8 4             9 7 6 
A J 8 6 3           T 7                 K 9 5 2             Q 4 
K 2                 Q 4 3               T 9 5               A J 8 7 6 

  32.
7 6 3               Q J T 9 8           K 5                 A 4 2 
Q 9                 A 7                 K T 8 4             J 6 5 3 2 
A Q J 6 4           T 7                 K 9 5 2             8 3 
Q 6 4               A J 8 7             T 9 5               K 3 2 

  33.
Q J 8               A 9 7 4 3           K 5                 T 6 2 
Q J 9               A 5 2               K T 8 4             7 6 3 
T 6 4 3             7                   K 9 5 2             A Q J 8 
K 7 6               A Q 4 3             T 9 5               J 8 2 

  34.
7 6 4               A Q J T 3           K 5                 9 8 2 
A 2                 Q 7                 K T 8 4             J 9 6 5 3 
Q J T 8 4           7 6                 K 9 5 2             A 3 
K 6 4               A 8 3 2             T 9 5               Q J 7 

  35.
9                   A T 8 7 6 4 3       K 5                 Q J 2 
J 7 5               A 3                 K T 8 4             Q 9 6 2 
A J T 8 4           7 6                 K 9 5 2             Q 3 
K Q 4 3             A 8                 T 9 5               J 7 6 2 

  36.
Q 3 2               A T 9 8 6           K 5                 J 7 4 
J 9 7               A Q 3               K T 8 4             6 5 2 
Q J 6 4             A T 8 7             K 9 5 2             3 
K J 2               8                   T 9 5               A Q 7 6 4 3 

  37.
Q 7 3               J T 9 4 2           K 5                 A 8 6 
Q 9 7               A 5                 K T 8 4             J 6 3 2 
A J T 8 6           Q 7 4 3             K 9 5 2             - 
6 2                 A Q                 T 9 5               K J 8 7 4 3 

  38.
J 4 3               A Q T 8 7           K 5                 9 6 2 
A 5                 Q 9 6 3             K T 8 4             J 7 2 
A Q 8 7 4           T 6 3               K 9 5 2             J 
7 6 2               A                   T 9 5               K Q J 8 4 3 

  39.
T 6 4               A J 9 7 3           K 5                 Q 8 2 
Q 9 5               2                   K T 8 4             A J 7 6 3 
A Q J 6             8                   K 9 5 2             T 7 4 3 
Q 8 4               A K J 7 6 3         T 9 5               2 

  40.
9 7 2               A Q T 6 4           K 5                 J 8 3 
2                   Q 9                 K T 8 4             A J 7 6 5 3 
A Q 8 6 4           7                   K 9 5 2             J T 3 
K 6 3 2             A Q 8 7 4           T 9 5               J 

  41.
8 3 2               Q J T 7 6           K 5                 A 9 4 
A 6 5               Q 9 7               K T 8 4             J 3 2 
Q J 8 7             A                   K 9 5 2             T 6 4 3 
Q 8 4               A J 3 2             T 9 5               K 7 6 

  42.
T 8 4               A Q J 9 2           K 5                 7 6 3 
6 5                 Q 9 7               K T 8 4             A J 3 2 
A J 8 7 4           Q T 3               K 9 5 2             6 
A 6 2               Q J                 T 9 5               K 8 7 4 3 

  43.
J 6 3               A Q 8 4 2           K 5                 T 9 7 
9 7 5               A Q J 2             K T 8 4             6 3 
A J 7 6 3           4                   K 9 5 2             Q T 8 
K 6                 8 4 2               T 9 5               A Q J 7 3 

  44.
J 4 2               A 8 7 6 3           K 5                 Q T 9 
A 7 6               Q 9                 K T 8 4             J 5 3 2 
A J 4 3             7                   K 9 5 2             Q T 8 6 
6 4 2               K Q J 8 7           T 9 5               A 3 

  45.
A T 3               9 8 7 6 4           K 5                 Q J 2 
Q J 3               A 6                 K T 8 4             9 7 5 2 
J 6 4 3             Q 7                 K 9 5 2             A T 8 
J 7 3               A K Q 2             T 9 5               8 6 4 

  46.
J 8                 Q T 9 7 4 3         K 5                 A 6 2 
Q 5 3               A 6                 K T 8 4             J 9 7 2 
A J 8 7 4           3                   K 9 5 2             Q T 6 
J 7 3               A K 4 2             T 9 5               Q 8 6 

  47.
Q 3                 A J T 8 7 6         K 5                 9 4 2 
J 7 6               A 5                 K T 8 4             Q 9 3 2 
A 8 6 4 3           J                   K 9 5 2             Q T 7 
Q 8 4               K J 7 3             T 9 5               A 6 2 

  48.
J 8 3               Q T 9 6 2           K 5                 A 7 4 
J 5 3               A Q 2               K T 8 4             9 7 6 
Q 8 7 3             A 6                 K 9 5 2             J T 4 
A Q 3               K 4 2               T 9 5               J 8 7 6 

  49.
A J 3               Q 8 6 4 2           K 5                 T 9 7 
J 3 2               A 6 5               K T 8 4             Q 9 7 
A J T 8 4           7 6                 K 9 5 2             Q 3 
8 6                 A K 2               T 9 5               Q J 7 4 3 

  50.
J 8                 A Q T 9 6 3         K 5                 7 4 2 
Q 9 7               A 3                 K T 8 4             J 6 5 2 
A J T 7 4           6 3                 K 9 5 2             Q 8 
Q 8 3               K 7 6               T 9 5               A J 4 2 

  51.
A 9 6               Q T 8 7 4           K 5                 J 3 2 
J 7 3               A Q 6 5             K T 8 4             9 2 
Q T 4 3             A 7                 K 9 5 2             J 8 6 
A 7 6               8 3                 T 9 5               K Q J 4 2 

  52.
A Q 8               J T 9 4 3           K 5                 7 6 2 
7 6 2               J 9                 K T 8 4             A Q 5 3 
Q 8 7 3             A 6 4               K 9 5 2             J T 
K 8 3               A Q J               T 9 5               7 6 4 2 

  53.
Q 3 2               A J 9 8 7           K 5                 T 6 4 
2                   A Q 9 7 6           K T 8 4             J 5 3 
Q J 8 6 3           T 4                 K 9 5 2             A 7 
A 4 3 2             Q                   T 9 5               K J 8 7 6 

  54.
Q 9 7               A T 6 4 2           K 5                 J 8 3 
Q 3                 J 7 5               K T 8 4             A 9 6 2 
J 8 6 4 3           A                   K 9 5 2             Q T 7 
A 8 6               K J 7 4             T 9 5               Q 3 2 

  55.
T 3 2               A Q J 7 4           K 5                 9 8 6 
A 5 2               Q J 9 6 3           K T 8 4             7 
Q 8 7 4             A T                 K 9 5 2             J 6 3 
A J 6               2                   T 9 5               K Q 8 7 4 3 

  56.
J 9 7               A Q 6 4 2           K 5                 T 8 3 
J 5 3               Q 6                 K T 8 4             A 9 7 2 
T 7 6 3             A Q                 K 9 5 2             J 8 4 
K Q 8               J 7 4 2             T 9 5               A 6 3 

  57.
J 4 2               A T 9 6 3           K 5                 Q 8 7 
J 6                 A 9 7 5             K T 8 4             Q 3 2 
Q 8 7 6 4           J                   K 9 5 2             A T 3 
K Q 8               A 6 3               T 9 5               J 7 4 2 

  58.
7 3 2               A 9 8 6 4           K 5                 Q J T 
Q                   A 6 3 2             K T 8 4             J 9 7 5 
Q J 8 7 3           A 6 4               K 9 5 2             T 
K 8 4 2             Q                   T 9 5               A J 7 6 3 

  59.
J 9 7               Q T 6 4 3           K 5                 A 8 2 
6 5 3               A Q 9               K T 8 4             J 7 2 
A Q J 8             T 7 3               K 9 5 2             6 4 
K 3 2               A Q                 T 9 5               J 8 7 6 4 

  60.
9 7 4               Q J 6 3 2           K 5                 A T 8 
3                   A J 2               K T 8 4             Q 9 7 6 5 
A T 7 4 3           8                   K 9 5 2             Q J 6 
Q J 7 6             A K 8 4             T 9 5               3 2 

  61.
9 6 2               A Q T 7 4           K 5                 J 8 3 
7 6 3               Q J 9 2             K T 8 4             A 5 
A Q J 4             T 8                 K 9 5 2             7 6 3 
A 6 4               K J                 T 9 5               Q 8 7 3 2 

  62.
A J 8               T 9 4 3 2           K 5                 Q 7 6 
9 5                 Q 7 6               K T 8 4             A J 3 2 
Q J T 6 4           A                   K 9 5 2             8 7 3 
6 3 2               A K Q 4             T 9 5               J 8 7 

  63.
9 7 4               Q 8 6 3 2           K 5                 A J T 
A 7 3               J                   K T 8 4             Q 9 6 5 2 
A 8 4 3             Q T 6               K 9 5 2             J 7 
J 6 4               A K Q 8             T 9 5               7 3 2 

  64.
A Q T               J 7 6 3 2           K 5                 9 8 4 
Q 7 2               A 6 3               K T 8 4             J 9 5 
Q 8 4 3             A                   K 9 5 2             J T 7 6 
7 6 4               K Q 8 2             T 9 5               A J 3 

  65.
T 8                 Q J 7 6 3 2         K 5                 A 9 4 
6 2                 A Q 9 3             K T 8 4             J 7 5 
A J 8 7 6           T                   K 9 5 2             Q 4 3 
K Q 8 2             A 6                 T 9 5               J 7 4 3 

  66.
J 9 8               A T 6 3 2           K 5                 Q 7 4 
A Q J               9 6                 K T 8 4             7 5 3 2 
J T 6 4             8 3                 K 9 5 2             A Q 7 
8 6 3               A K Q J             T 9 5               7 4 2 

  67.
J T 6               A Q 8 4 3           K 5                 9 7 2 
A 6 5               Q                   K T 8 4             J 9 7 3 2 
Q 8 7 3             A T 6               K 9 5 2             J 4 
A 4 2               J 7 6 3             T 9 5               K Q 8 

  68.
Q 8 3               A J 9 6 4           K 5                 T 7 2 
6 3 2               A                   K T 8 4             Q J 9 7 5 
J T 8 4 3           A 7                 K 9 5 2             Q 6 
A 8                 Q 7 4 3 2           T 9 5               K J 6 

  69.
Q 8 6               J 7 4 3 2           K 5                 A T 9 
9                   A Q 6               K T 8 4             J 7 5 3 2 
A J 7 6 3           Q 4                 K 9 5 2             T 8 
A 8 7 2             K 6 4               T 9 5               Q J 3 

  70.
8                   A Q J 6 4 3 2       K 5                 T 9 7 
Q J 3               A 7 6               K T 8 4             9 5 2 
Q J 8 6 3           7                   K 9 5 2             A T 4 
K J 7 3             A 6                 T 9 5               Q 8 4 2 

  71.
J 6 3               A Q T 9 4           K 5                 8 7 2 
J 9 3               -                   K T 8 4             A Q 7 6 5 2 
A 8 6 3             Q J T 7             K 9 5 2             4 
A 6 2               Q J 7 4             T 9 5               K 8 3 

  72.
T 4 2               A Q J 9 6           K 5                 8 7 3 
A Q 5               J 7 6               K T 8 4             9 3 2 
A 8 7 6             3                   K 9 5 2             Q J T 4 
6 4 2               K Q 8 7             T 9 5               A J 3 

  73.
J 6 2               A Q 8 7 3           K 5                 T 9 4 
J                   6 3                 K T 8 4             A Q 9 7 5 2 
A Q J 4 3           7                   K 9 5 2             T 8 6 
Q J 8 3             A K 7 6 4           T 9 5               2 

  74.
Q 6                 A J 9 8 4 2         K 5                 T 7 3 
Q J 6               A 5 3 2             K T 8 4             9 7 
Q J T 8 7           4                   K 9 5 2             A 6 3 
K 6 3               A 2                 T 9 5               Q J 8 7 4 

  75.
A J T               Q 9 7 4 2           K 5                 8 6 3 
J 9 3               A                   K T 8 4             Q 7 6 5 2 
J T 6 3             A Q 7 4             K 9 5 2             8 
K 7 4               Q 6 3               T 9 5               A J 8 2 

  76.
J 8 3               A Q 9 6 2           K 5                 T 7 4 
J                   A 6 5               K T 8 4             Q 9 7 3 2 
A 8 6 4 3           Q T                 K 9 5 2             J 7 
K Q 8 4             J 7 3               T 9 5               A 6 2 

  77.
J T                 A 9 8 7 6 3         K 5                 Q 4 2 
Q 3 2               A J 9 7             K T 8 4             6 5 
A Q J T 7           8 4                 K 9 5 2             6 3 
J 8 7               A                   T 9 5               K Q 6 4 3 2 

  78.
A J 4               T 9 8 3 2           K 5                 Q 7 6 
7 3 2               A Q J 9             K T 8 4             6 5 
A T 8 4             J                   K 9 5 2             Q 7 6 3 
J 8 3               A 7 2               T 9 5               K Q 6 4 

  79.
J 6 2               A Q 9 8 3           K 5                 T 7 4 
J 9 2               Q 7 6 5 3           K T 8 4             A 
A J T 3             -                   K 9 5 2             Q 8 7 6 4 
K J 7               A 4 2               T 9 5               Q 8 6 3 

  80.
A J 4               Q T 7 6 2           K 5                 9 8 3 
A 7                 6 5 3 2             K T 8 4             Q J 9 
T 8 7 4 3           A J                 K 9 5 2             Q 6 
J 7 2               K Q                 T 9 5               A 8 6 4 3 

  81.
Q T 3               A 8 7 6 4           K 5                 J 9 2 
Q J 9               7 6 3 2             K T 8 4             A 5 
T 7 4 3             A                   K 9 5 2             Q J 8 6 
K Q 4               A 7 2               T 9 5               J 8 6 3 

  82.
Q J 9               T 8 7 4 2           K 5                 A 6 3 
J 6 3               A Q 9 5             K T 8 4             7 2 
A Q J 8             7                   K 9 5 2             T 6 4 3 
7 6 3               A K J               T 9 5               Q 8 4 2 

  83.
9 8 4               A Q T 7 2           K 5                 J 6 3 
2                   6 5 3               K T 8 4             A Q J 9 7 
A Q J T 4           6                   K 9 5 2             8 7 3 
K J 8 7             A Q 4 3             T 9 5               6 2 

  84.
T 8 7               A Q J 6 3           K 5                 9 4 2 
A Q J               6 5 2               K T 8 4             9 7 3 
T 8 7 4             A J                 K 9 5 2             Q 6 3 
J 8 3               Q 6 2               T 9 5               A K 7 4 

  85.
Q 8 3               A J T 6 4           K 5                 9 7 2 
Q 6 3               A 7 5               K T 8 4             J 9 2 
A 8 7 6 4           J T                 K 9 5 2             Q 3 
Q 4                 A J 6               T 9 5               K 8 7 3 2 

  86.
T 3 2               J 9 8 7 4           K 5                 A Q 6 
J 7 2               A Q 3               K T 8 4             9 6 5 
A Q J 8 6           7                   K 9 5 2             T 4 3 
K 8                 A J 6 4             T 9 5               Q 7 3 2 

  87.
Q T 6               A J 7 3 2           K 5                 9 8 4 
Q 7 5               A J 3               K T 8 4             9 6 2 
Q 7 6 4             T                   K 9 5 2             A J 8 3 
A J 8               Q 6 4 3             T 9 5               K 7 2 

  88.
Q J 6               A 8 7 4 2           K 5                 T 9 3 
5 3 2               A                   K T 8 4             Q J 9 7 6 
A J T 6             Q 7 3               K 9 5 2             8 4 
J 4 2               A 8 7 3             T 9 5               K Q 6 

  89.
Q T 3               A J 9 8 6           K 5                 7 4 2 
Q 5 2               A 7                 K T 8 4             J 9 6 3 
Q J 8 4 3           6                   K 9 5 2             A T 7 
4 2                 K Q J 6 3           T 9 5               A 8 7 

  90.
7 6 3               A J 9 4 2           K 5                 Q T 8 
J 9 3               A 6 5 2             K T 8 4             Q 7 
A J 8 4 3           7                   K 9 5 2             Q T 6 
K 8                 A J 4               T 9 5               Q 7 6 3 2 

  91.
Q J T               A 9 7 4 2           K 5                 8 6 3 
7                   Q 6 5               K T 8 4             A J 9 3 2 
A Q T 4 3           8                   K 9 5 2             J 7 6 
K 8 4 3             A Q 7 2             T 9 5               J 6 

  92.
7 6                 A J T 9 8 4         K 5                 Q 3 2 
6 2                 7 5                 K T 8 4             A Q J 9 3 
A 7 6 4 3           Q J                 K 9 5 2             T 8 
K J 7 6             A Q 2               T 9 5               8 4 3 

  93.
J 8 3               Q T 9 6 4           K 5                 A 7 2 
7 5                 Q 2                 K T 8 4             A J 9 6 3 
A J 8 6 4           Q 7 3               K 9 5 2             T 
Q J 2               A K 8               T 9 5               7 6 4 3 

  94.
Q 9 7               A J 6 3 2           K 5                 T 8 4 
9 3 2               A Q 6               K T 8 4             J 7 5 
Q 8 7 4             A T 6               K 9 5 2             J 3 
A 8 7               6 2                 T 9 5               K Q J 4 3 

  95.
J 7                 A T 6 4 3 2         K 5                 Q 9 8 
A Q 6               J 2                 K T 8 4             9 7 5 3 
T 8 7 4 3           A Q                 K 9 5 2             J 6 
Q J 7               A 8 2               T 9 5               K 6 4 3 

  96.
A Q 9               J 8 4 3 2           K 5                 T 7 6 
9 5 2               A Q 6 3             K T 8 4             J 7 
A T 8 3             J 6                 K 9 5 2             Q 7 4 
J 3 2               A 4                 T 9 5               K Q 8 7 6 

  97.
7 6                 A J T 9 8 4         K 5                 Q 3 2 
Q J 6               9 5 2               K T 8 4             A 7 3 
A T 8 7 3           Q                   K 9 5 2             J 6 4 
K 8 7               A Q 4               T 9 5               J 6 3 2 

  98.
9 6 2               A J 8 7 4           K 5                 Q T 3 
A 5 3               Q J 7 6             K T 8 4             9 2 
A Q T 8 4           7 3                 K 9 5 2             J 6 
7 3                 A 2                 T 9 5               K Q J 8 6 4 

  99.
T 7 2               A Q J 9 4           K 5                 8 6 3 
A 7                 J 6                 K T 8 4             Q 9 5 3 2 
Q T 7 6 4           J 8                 K 9 5 2             A 3 
K 7 4               A J 8 3             T 9 5               Q 6 2 

 100.
A 8                 Q J 9 4 3 2         K 5                 T 7 6 
Q 5                 A 6 3               K T 8 4             J 9 7 2 
Q J 8 7 3           A 4                 K 9 5 2             T 6 
J 7 6 4             Q 8                 T 9 5               A K 3 2 

Generated 73972 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605212115
Time needed    0.594 sec

[pescetom]

Here is the (more favourable) scenario of takeout to diamonds.


Frequency of East tricks in spades:

Frequency :
    5	       0
    6	       3
    7	      17
    8	      35
    9	      28
   10	      15
High	       2
Generated 37450 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605221051
Time needed   34.621 sec

Frequency of North tricks in diamonds:

Frequency :
Low	       7
    5	      11
    6	      17
    7	      32
    8	      20
    9	      10
   10	       3
Generated 37232 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605221180
Time needed   46.179 sec

3♦ score worse/same/better for NS than 2♠ score:

Frequency :
   -1	      72
    0	      15
    1	      13
Generated 38612 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605221395
Time needed   88.623 sec

3♦ score worse/same/better for NS than 3♠ score:

Frequency :
   -1	      56
    0	      18
    1	      26
Generated 33727 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605221624
Time needed   70.319 sec

2♠ score worse/same/better for NS than 3♠ score:

Frequency :
   -1	       0
    0	      39
    1	      61
Generated 39296 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605221896
Time needed   30.971 sec

2♠ score worse/same/better for NS than 4♠ score:

Frequency :
   -1	      12
    0	       0
    1	      88
Generated 39048 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1605222155
Time needed   35.331 sec

[pescetom]

As a further sanity check, here are 30 hands with the actual variables values.
delta = N_score_x3m - E_score_x2S is the current setting.

delta=-50 x3m=-100 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=-390 x3m=-250 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-50 x3m=-100 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=-190 x3m=-50 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-340 x3m=-200 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=0 x3m=-50 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=-210 x3m=-100 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-260 x3m=-150 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-30 x3m=110 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-240 x3m=-100 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-290 x3m=-150 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-50 x3m=-100 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=-290 x3m=-150 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-160 x3m=-50 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-290 x3m=-150 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-210 x3m=-100 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-190 x3m=-50 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-160 x3m=-50 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-190 x3m=-50 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=160 x3m=110 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=50 x3m=-50 
 x2S=-100 x3S=-150 x4S=-200
delta=-210 x3m=-100 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-190 x3m=-50 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=210 x3m=110 
 x2S=-100 x3S=-150 x4S=-200
delta=-190 x3m=-50 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=160 x3m=110 
 x2S=-50 x3S=-100 x4S=-150
delta=-210 x3m=-100 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-30 x3m=110 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
delta=-210 x3m=-100 
 x2S=110 x3S=-50 x4S=-100
delta=-240 x3m=-100 
 x2S=140 x3S=140 x4S=-50
Generated 10722 hands
Produced 30 hands
Initial random seed 1605274824
Time needed   28.536 sec

[Douglas43]

I voted for double at pairs. Should be 16 total tricks.

On the follow-up question, I would be more inclined to pass at IMPs, because I think there's too little upside.