[AL78]

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2♠ is weak. What is your call and plan?

[DavidKok]

My agreements over weak 2's are horrible for this hand. This is a deliberate sacrifice based on frequency arguments. For me 3♥ is NF and 4NT would be both minors. One of the few forcing calls I have is 2NT (asking), so I have to begin with that. Partner will bid 3♣/♦ with a minimum (depending on spade length - 3♣ is only 5), after which I can introduce the hearts with 3♥ (forcing). I need this auction to be able to ask keycards later - any other bid would either be NF (first round) or agree spades as trumps (second round). My plan is to ask for keycards at some point, and if partner shows one to ask for a third round club control with 6♣. Partner will bid 7♣ with the queen, 7♥ with a singleton or doubleton and at least two hearts, 6♠ with the king in addition to the ace and sign off in 6♥ with none of those. I think that's the best I am going to get.

So my ideal auction would be along the lines of 2♠-2NT*; 3♣*/3♦*-3♥; 3♠-4NT(keycards for hearts); 5♣ (1/4)-6♣; ?. I think it is most reasonable to expect the opponents to jump in diamonds over my 2NT, in which case I'd have to make a blind guess.

[LBengtsson]

science may not help on hand like this. just bid what you think you can make - 6♥. either partner has ♠a or ♣q or opponents will be in trouble discarding and they will be in pseudo squeeze. etc. the only science is to find out if partner has ♠AK(Q) so that may be possible after a 2Nt Ogust where you can show honours (3nt reply)

Ogust does not agree weak two opening suit as trump suit imo. so may be possible to go 2♠ - 2nt - any reply 3♣/3♦/3♥/3♠ - 4nt rkcb for ♠ by inference - any reply - decide 6♥ or 7♥. you are boss as 2nt ogust bidder so partner trust you.

[nige1]

ALT78 '2♠ is weak. What is your call and plan?'
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Unless we can rely on appropriate agreed methods, I rank
1. 2N =ASK. But, if you start on a sophisticated route , there is a danger that a wheel might come off.
2. 6♥ = NAT. Practical bid.

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[pescetom]

We have 4♣ = RKCB here, which should do the job.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2021-May-19, 04:50, said:

We have 4♧ = RKCB here, which should do the job.

Only if partner never has ♠KJ10xxx and ♦A

[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-May-19, 05:08, said:

Only if partner never has ♠KJ10xxx and ♦A

Possible but unlikely. I'm sure someone out there plays a direct jump to 5♦ as Voidwood/Lackwood, but you need a really good set of agreements to ask about third round club control while retaining 6♥ to play on that auction. As always with slam auctions I think the slower path is more sensible.

[nullve]

Stupid fantasy:

2♠-3♣!!!
4♣-5♦*
5♠**-7♥
P

* ERKCB(♣)
** 1 key card outside diamonds

[Winstonm]

6h - I plan to either make it or go down.

[gszes]

I admit I dislike the concept of jumping to 6h. I try to save such guesstimates when no practical method presents itself AND I feel the odds favor such action. This hand clearly fails to meet the second concept since there appears to be a very low chance of partner having specifically the club Q or 1/2 clubs AND 2+ hearts.
2s p 3h (creating GF). The spade ace has a high degree of probability of being discovered by conventional means paving the way for a search for 7 SAFELY. My suggestion is the following:
2s
p
3h forcing but more importantly sets hearts for later RKC purposes.

We cannot predict what will come next but the non interference method would be a 5d exclusion bid over the 2s bidders next bid. (this will accurately find the spade A (as long as your system is 0314 and not the less useful 1430). If partner does bid 5s you have two reasonable courses of action.

1. bid 7h this will work automatically when partner has the spade A/K OR the spade Ace and club Q OR the spade Ace and 3rd round club control (with at least 2 hearts) OR it place the opps in a very difficult carding situation with that spade ace sitting in dummy.

2. Bid 6c asking for 3rd round club control. If partner has to resort to 6h this will make the opps discarding vastly more simple AND it will not allow for 7h to be bid if partner has the spade AK.

[pescetom]

gszes, on 2021-May-19, 14:07, said:

2s p 3h (creating GF). The spade ace has a high degree of probability of being discovered by conventional means paving the way for a search for 7 SAFELY. My suggestion is the following:
2s
p
3h forcing but more importantly sets hearts for later RKC purposes.

We cannot predict what will come next but the non interference method would be a 5d exclusion bid over the 2s bidders next bid.

Not sure I follow you here.
Is it widespread to play 3♥ as creating GF here?
I would play it as constructive and forcing, but might well elict 3♠ natural NF.
If not, his next bid would be a control-bid (of a minor) or a fast arrival in 4♥.
Would you consider 5♦ to be clear-cut exclusion in either of those cases?
For us it would be undefined in the first case (and therefore to be avoided) and an obstinate control-bid in the second.

[Cascade]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-May-19, 05:08, said:

Only if partner never has ♠KJ10xxx and ♦A

The ♦A maybe enough if the opponents lead a diamond - probably the most likely lead - or if partner has the ♥10 - close to one in three chance.

[Cascade]

gszes, on 2021-May-19, 14:07, said:

I admit I dislike the concept of jumping to 6h. I try to save such guesstimates when no practical method presents itself AND I feel the odds favor such action. This hand clearly fails to meet the second concept since there appears to be a very low chance of partner having specifically the club Q or 1/2 clubs AND 2+ hearts.

I think the odds of making 6♥ are great.

1. Partner will have the ♠A 50% of the time with six spades and 5/12 with only five spades. At least these numbers are reasonable starting points. Depending on style the odds with five spades might be higher for example if the partnership has a requirement of a decent suit for a five-card suit here.

2. The odds of partner having the ♣Q are around 1/3.

3. As I just wrote in another post even the ♦A might be enough - the opponents might lead a diamond or partner might have the ♥10.

4. On top of that we have the chance of short clubs and two trumps or one trump and no trump lead.

5. The ♣J and a club lead is also an appreciable chance.

I would guess all of this leaves me at around 75% minimum to be making 6♥.

Update: I did a similation where I gave partner 5-9 hcp and 5-6 spades and not 4 hearts. The legitimate near certainty of making was around 70% - I did not account for an overruff if clubs were 6-2 or worse or other obscure options. In addition, there was a further 22% exclusive of the above winning options where the opponents may give you the contract on the lead.

In conclusion, if I had one bid it would be 6♥ and if I can go slow and gather information then I will need to get really bad information to not bid 6♥.

[AL78]

Cascade, on 2021-May-19, 18:16, said:

2. The odds of partner having the ♣Q are around 1/3.

It is a bit less than that. We know six of North's cards (spades) so there are seven places the CQ could be, compared to 13 spaces in each of the opponent's hands. I work it out as closer to 1/5.

[pescetom]

AL78, on 2021-May-20, 02:40, said:

It is a bit less than that. We know six of North's cards (spades) so there are seven places the CQ could be, compared to 13 spaces in each of the opponent's hands. I work it out as closer to 1/5.

There are only 20 spaces in the opponents' hands, as they must hold 6 spades. Therefore closer to 1/4.

[morecharac]

AL78, on 2021-May-19, 03:22, said:

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2♠ is weak. What is your call and plan?

Ogust for an idea of where's and what p's points are.

I really want to play 7♥ but it could easily make only 5♥ opposite a bad hand with spade honours and too many clubs or have a mack truck drive through any NT game.