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Lucky, Unlucky, Right, or Wrong Rebid evaluation

#1 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 09:35

Never one to shy away from personal beliefs, my partner followed his and made his bid. What's your choice with his hand, 2 or 3? Imp pairs if it matters.



For the curious:

Spoiler

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#2 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 11:10

Is it a trick question? 3 for me. I'm not thrilled about the stiff king, but it still looks worth it.
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#3 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 11:21

Playing vanilla methods, I guess it has to be 3H, 2H is really an underbid, even with a sg K and so much stuff in H that you donít wanna trump with. And itís red at IMPs.

Partner must have felt lucky, though, that you didnít bid 1S, what would his rebid have been? Ag least opening 1D looks safer as it leaves a 2C rebid open, barring the relative suit strengths. He knew with a 16-count 1444 that heíd likely have to lie at some stage in the auction, but opening 1C seems to put a bad start in what promises to be a shaky auction.

Lots would have opened a strong NT, if they donít play weakÖ
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#4 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 11:26

2 only for me 16/17 total points, 6.5 MLT at best. Opposite a weak responder you'll likely go down.
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#5 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 11:57

2 for me, not enamoured by having to ruff with top hearts.

Coincidently I would have opened this hand with 1 as I have no rebid after the likely 1 response.
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#6 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 12:22

View Postpaulg, on 2021-September-19, 11:57, said:

2 for me, not enamoured by having to ruff with top hearts.

Coincidently I would have opened this hand with 1 as I have no rebid after the likely 1 response.


The rebid after 1S would have to be 1NT
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#7 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 12:45

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-September-19, 12:22, said:

The rebid after 1S would have to be 1NT


Showing 12-14 for most people in the US, yes I could do this playing a weak NT, we open 1 and probably rebid 1N over 1, 3 over 1.
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#8 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 12:53

View Postpaulg, on 2021-September-19, 11:57, said:

2 for me, not enamoured by having to ruff with top hearts.

Coincidently I would have opened this hand with 1 as I have no rebid after the likely 1 response.

Me too, playing an unbalanced or standard.
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#9 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 12:57

View Postpaulg, on 2021-September-19, 11:57, said:

Coincidently I would have opened this hand with 1 as I have no rebid after the likely 1 response.

1 is bog-standard in Italy when holding 4-4 minors.
I understood that playing 'Better Minor', 1 would be preferred with 11-15hcps and a singleton (considering the black suits here I would downgrade to that).
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#10 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 15:11

I would only bid 2 and miss a game that happens to make because both hands are stacked with honor cards in the red suits and have shortages opposite black suit junk. Replace the stiff K with a spot card and game is still cold, but I doubt as many will be jump raising hearts. Switch one of North's spades for a club and game has no chance. I'd be interested to know the odds of North holding a hand where game is at least 40% and can't move over a simple raise by opener.
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#11 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 16:13

View PostAL78, on 2021-September-19, 15:11, said:

I would only bid 2 and miss a game that happens to make because both hands are stacked with honor cards in the red suits and have shortages opposite black suit junk. Replace the stiff K with a spot card and game is still cold, but I doubt as many will be jump raising hearts. Switch one of North's spades for a club and game has no chance. I'd be interested to know the odds of North holding a hand where game is at least 40% and can't move over a simple raise by opener.


You can't get back to hand often enough. You lose 2 spades and 2 clubs unless I missed something.
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 17:47

Spoiler

This post has been edited by nige1: 2021-September-19, 19:28

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#13 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 18:36

2 reply sound like weak opening bid with 11-14 points and 3 or 4 trump support. 3 at least tells partner you have 4 card trump support with stronger hand. so 3 for me at red. if you only bid 2 partner will never go to game with a reasonable hand such as xxx Kxxxx Qxx Ax
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#14 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 19:34

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-September-19, 16:13, said:

You can't get back to hand often enough. You lose 2 spades and 2 clubs unless I missed something.
Run East's return to dummy's A9 tenace (winning cheaply). Ruff a , Cash a top . Cross to K. Ruff a second . Cross to Q. Draw trumps and claim 6 trumps and 4 diamonds.
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#15 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-September-19, 22:32

View Postnige1, on 2021-September-19, 19:34, said:

Run East's return to dummy's A9 tenace (winning cheaply). Ruff a , Cash a top . Cross to K. Ruff a second . Cross to Q. Draw trumps and claim 6 trumps and 4 diamonds.


Sorry for showing the hands in the wrong position and for being dense, but the only way to win cheaply in hand is with the K. You can try the 9 but it doesn't work. If you ruff twice, you will lose a natural trump trick because you are ruffing with two high trumps.

Spade Q lead


I've corrected the north-south orientation so maybe that was the problem. This is the correct situation.
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#16 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2021-September-20, 00:40

Even playing Kaplan-Sheinwold (where raises in this situation are systemically stronger than standard) I think this is 3. And, yes, playing K-S, South would raise to 4 if North had opened 1 and still might raise to 4.

Yeah you get unlucky sometimes.
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#17 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-September-20, 04:24

View Postmw64ahw, on 2021-September-19, 11:26, said:

2 only for me 16/17 total points, 6.5 MLT at best. Opposite a weak responder you'll likely go down.

Thinking about the problem further how about 2 as a reverse help suit game try looking for s? Revert to 3 when s are bypassed.
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#18 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-September-20, 13:16

View PostAL78, on 2021-September-19, 15:11, said:

I'd be interested to know the odds of North holding a hand where game is at least 40% and can't move over a simple raise by opener.

So would I, but unfortunately BBO is still forgetting a promise.
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#19 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-September-20, 14:13

Winstonm 'Q lead. Sorry for showing the hands in the wrong position and for being dense, but the only way to win cheaply in hand is with the K. You can try the 9 but it doesn't work. If you ruff twice, you will lose a natural trump trick because you are ruffing with two high trumps.
I've corrected the north-south orientation so maybe that was the problem. This is the correct situation.
++++++++++++++++++++
Thank you WinstonM, for correcting the layout of your intriguing problem..
On the given defence, with the actual layout, 4 is unlucky to fail :( If the declaring side held 7, game prospects would be better :)
It's hard to allow for such considerations, during the auction :(

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#20 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-September-20, 19:10

View Postnige1, on 2021-September-20, 14:13, said:

Winstonm 'Q lead. Sorry for showing the hands in the wrong position and for being dense, but the only way to win cheaply in hand is with the K. You can try the 9 but it doesn't work. If you ruff twice, you will lose a natural trump trick because you are ruffing with two high trumps.
I've corrected the north-south orientation so maybe that was the problem. This is the correct situation.
++++++++++++++++++++
Thank you WinstonM, for correcting the layout of your intriguing problem..
On the given defence, with the actual layout, 4 is unlucky to fail :( If the declaring side held 7, game prospects would be better :)
It's hard to allow for such considerations, during the auction :(



Yes, and in the play it's easy to overlook the necessity of at least trying the 9 when the heart comes back. If the heart 10 is with east, the contract makes.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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