[AL78]

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2♥ is a weak two.

My question is, at MPs, lets say you got the ♦5 lead, 4th best and the defence knock out your ace (West will play the queen on the first round and the nine on the second round if you duck). When it comes to playing the heart suit, would you be willing to play West for both heart honors and go for 12 tricks, taking the risk that East could have a stiff honor and run diamonds against you?

[LBengtsson]

I'd play the other suits first leaving entries to achieve the ♥ double finesse position. It's MP and you want to get the best possible result. If East had a ♥ honour, even a stiff, I think they would have probably led it. West has bid 2♥ in 3rd at red. I would play him to have a suit with ♥QJ but as you say it is not a certainty.

[Tramticket]

Who are you playing against? Some club players will happily open 2♥, vulnerable with this in third seat:

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If you play a lot with these opponents, your best strategy is to pass and wait for partner to reopen with a double!

[AL78]

Tramticket, on 2022-January-07, 08:50, said:

Who are you playing against? Some club players will happily open 2♥, vulnerable with this in third seat:

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If you play a lot with these opponents, your best strategy is to pass and wait for partner to reopen with a double!

Typical club players (whatever that means) who would happily open with your hand vulnerable in third.

What is the chance of partner finding a TOX in the pass-out seat when you are holding a 20 count over a weak two opener?

This wasn't me playing, it was one of my regular partners playing with a less experienced player.

[Douglas43]

If North had doubled, NS might end up in 4♠ which is likely to make 11. So I'd probably risk the finesse

[akwoo]

I would play clubs first, taking care to protect against a 4-1 break with West having the singleton.

If there is indeed a 4-1 break with West having the singleton, I'm ahead of some of my opponents and wouldn't want to jeopardize my advantage with a heart finesse.

Otherwise - I suspect the right answer changes from decade to decade. I wouldn't presume to know your club field. There are certainly some pairs for which East having *both* heart honors is a live possibility!

[smerriman]

Even if West would open with Jxxxxx, the finesse is 2:1 odds. So it seems the right play to me. (Though I agree with akwoo that if you pick up a 1-4 club split, you've probably gained enough.)

[mycroft]

How about ♥Q8xxx? Are you comfortable that East doesn't have J5? Would this pair open Txxxx Q8xxx K9 J or wait to come in next round (or pass-and-not-give-shape-away)?

I would start with "what do I know about the pair?" and "when I ask them about their preempt style, what do they tell me (and how do they tell me)?" The first question might just be "well, you've never seen them before, but you're playing BBO club/ACBL RAH mid-flight/..." or "you've never seen them before, but their combined age is less than yours" or other very subtle tells.

And Douglas has a point - how many are in 4♠ after hearing about the diamond weakness?

And another question - which may impact the first one. East dealt and passed ♦QJ8532 and "some cards". Do they play an artificial 2♦? What's their preempt style in first seat all red - and how does that impact their third-seat openers? Or was it ♦QJ852 and West has K93? How does that count impact the chance of a 5-card-to-one-honour preempt?

How many do you think are going to get a heart lead into this auction? How many a diamond lead? That guess makes a difference, too - and is strongly dependent on field.

[AL78]

If you test the clubs, you'll find them 3-2.

The hands I posted are a slightly adjusted version of a real deal in order to make East a danger hand where finessing hearts into a stiff honor will make you go down in an otherwise cold contract. The actual deal was this:

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In the actual deal, a diamond lead isn't a threat since the jack is a second stop, hence I adjusted it so that NS have only one stop and asked the question, do you go for the extra overtrick playing for both heart honors to be with West?