[thepossum]

I almost bid 1NT (sometimes even 2NT?) here but went rather trepidatiously for 1C - IMPs
I even considered 1M
I know in NB-land its a 1 club bid but...

How do you judge

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[Gilithin]

It's a very good 18 4423 - why would you treat it as anything other than a balanced 18 or 19? 1♥ in Acol; 1♣ in SA, 2/1GF, Forum D, SEF, Precision or Polish Club.

[thepossum]

I appreciate that

What are the stats on 1C being a terrible outcome

[Gilithin]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-07, 21:22, said:

What are the stats on 1C being a terrible outcome

Low enough that you and your partner decided to play a 5 card major system instead of Acol. The number of hands where:
your partner is passing 1♣ AND the opps are passing 1♣ AND 1♣ is going down AND we were making 1♥/1NT AND partner was passing the alternative opening AND the opps were passing the alternative opening
...is negligible compared with the number of times where:
we open 1NT AND we miss a game OR we open 1♥ and end up in a bad Moysian 4♥ OR we compete to the wrong level due to lying about shape

There are times where it pays to bid a little differently in 3rd/4th seat compared with 1st/2nd but this is not one of those hand types.

[thepossum]

I didn't choose to play 5-card majors and sometimes I like to relax the strong restrictions with a good hand a nice 4-card major

THis hand was just very sad. 1C-4 and those who opened 1NT in 2S-1 - and imagine I had opened 1S

[Tramticket]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-07, 22:21, said:

and imagine I had opened 1S

This would be a strange opening, even playing four-card majors. It would tend to bury the heart suit.

[thepossum]

 Tramticket, on 2023-July-08, 00:43, said:

This would be a strange opening, even playing four-card majors. It would tend to bury the heart suit.

I appreciate that but what I am getting at is bidding a 3-card suit aheaad of a 4-card suit, or even NT
I appreciate its possibly reverse-worthy, even after a pass?

Here is the hand. You decide on the right opening bid - should I put it in the unlucky don't result too much basket - it has crazy DD options

Just unlucky. Wrong bidding system???

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[mw64ahw]

Playing Transfer Walsh you're Ok bidding 1♥

[pescetom]

 Gilithin, on 2023-July-07, 21:18, said:

It's a very good 18 4423 - why would you treat it as anything other than a balanced 18 or 19? 1♥ in Acol; 1♣ in SA, 2/1GF, Forum D, SEF, Precision or Polish Club.

19.5 for my built-in K&R evaluator, 19.4 for the real thing Far too strong to downgrade to 1NT, no good reason to upgrade to 2NT. 1♣ it is.

 thepossum, on 2023-July-07, 21:22, said:

I appreciate that

What are the stats on 1C being a terrible outcome

No idea, but it is your systemic bid and systemic bids are not chosen by accident.
In this particular case your opponents had game in clubs, so against real (non-GiB) opponents it could hardly be a disaster.

[thepossum]

Just a thought
Would any humans playing north risk 1 spade

I still think 1NT was the best choice. Even 2NT. You will always be transferred into relative safety won't you

[HardVector]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-09, 23:27, said:

Just a thought
Would any humans playing north risk 1 spade

I still think 1NT was the best choice. Even 2NT. You will always be transferred into relative safety won't you

That's not the problem. The problem is playing 1n/2h/2s making 10 tricks. If you lie to your partner, you will get poor results. The one club opening was correct in the system, that does not guarantee good results. But you accept the poor results and roll with it. The solution is not to lie, but to find a better system. This hand is why people play Precision or some other system that allows you to make a low level forcing bid. A short club system also works.

[Gilithin]

 HardVector, on 2023-July-10, 01:38, said:

This hand is why people play Precision or some other system that allows you to make a low level forcing bid. A short club system also works.

Which results in 3♠-2 instead of 1♣-4 on more or less the best possible hands. Meanwhile there are plenty of others that work out poorly. Not to knock Precision (I have been known to play some strong club myself) but using this hand as an example of it being a "better system" is stupid. To the OP, something you need to learn is the concept of resulting, thinking that the action that works for a particular hand was the correct one. It isn't. There are many occasions in bridge where doing the best single dummy action ends in a poor result. That is the nature of imperfect information games. You take the action with the highest expected outcome over all possible hands. It's an important phase to grow out of if you want to keep progressing as a bridge player.

[blackshoe]

 pescetom, on 2023-July-08, 13:05, said:

19.5 for my built-in K&R evaluator, 19.4 for the real thing Far too strong to downgrade to 1NT, no good reason to upgrade to 2NT. 1♣ it is.

Hm. Playing 1NT as 14-16 HCP, my 2NT range is 19-20. I agree that this hand is worth 19, so I would open it 2NT.

[pescetom]

 blackshoe, on 2023-July-13, 06:31, said:

Hm. Playing 1NT as 14-16 HCP, my 2NT range is 19-20. I agree that this hand is worth 19, so I would open it 2NT.

thepossum is playing with GIB and thus agreed 15-17 and 20-21, IIRC.

[thepossum]

I am still curious about this

Even trying some basic sims

They suggest to me (at first glance) that even a pass wouldn't be a bad bid

Very crude sims, small chance of game, reasonable chance of negative

Chance of negative (eg <8) in any strain is greater than chance of game in that strain

You always need to consider pre-empting the opponents with 1 club though

I know I am resulting (I said I was higher up) but my first instinct was not to bid 1 club