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Do you fancy a double here ?

#1 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 02:17



Do you fancy doubling the weak NT on your 16 with the points in the short suits, or do you prefer showing hearts and another ? (Matchpoints)
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#2 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 03:15

I prefer double. Our hand is very defensive.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 05:56

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 03:15, said:

I prefer double. Our hand is very defensive.


I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was
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#4 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 07:53

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was
You're joking, right? K&R isn't magic, it is just another algorithm.
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#5 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 09:51

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 02:17, said:



Do you fancy doubling the weak NT on your 16 with the points in the short suits, or do you prefer showing hearts and another ? (Matchpoints)

Edgar Kaplan wrote about his long experience with weak notrump. Opponents did very well when they overcalled with good shape. They did very poorly when they overcalled with poor shape.
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#6 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 09:54

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

Kaplan's CCCC hates uh devalues two-honors-doubleton. That was his personal judgment.
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#7 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 10:28

I would double
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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 10:43

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 07:53, said:

You're joking, right? K&R isn't magic, it is just another algorithm.


Yes but it's often a decent tool to sense check what you feel at the table in these cases, I certainly wouldn't double with J432, I felt at the table it was a bad 15 but just enough to double with the 5 card suit to lead.
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#9 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 11:20

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

If you think the hand is not strong enough, than pass may be an option.
Given that the club suit is pretty weak, I understand, that you dont want to sell the hand as two-suited.
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Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#10 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 12:38

7.5 modified losers is weak for a 16 count, but partner's values could enhance the hand. I could show 54, but partner doesn't need much for 1NT doubled to be profitable. Try it and see if they run.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 13:31

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2024-July-20, 11:20, said:

If you think the hand is not strong enough, than pass may be an option.
Given that the club suit is pretty weak, I understand, that you dont want to sell the hand as two-suited.


Pass gets you a complete bottom, I didn't expect what happened next, I doubled, opps wriggled out into one of their 3 7 card fits, partner doubled 2 and led a diamond.

I saw Jxx, Ax, KJxx, Kxxx, won the Q, cashed the KQ and led a heart, partner produced the Q and the roof fell in, partner had A and A10 so 1700 to the good guys.

People made 3N+? and 4 so defending undoubled is not an option.
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#12 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 14:55

If you think the hand is too weak for a double, you should probably pass.
If you think the hand is strong enough for a double, you should double.
I don't like 2 with such a defensive hand.
I don't see why you want your evaluation to be tied to K&R, and I think it is better to not rely on it. In fact, of all the hand evaluation metrics, I personally consider K&R one of the worst ones.
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#13 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-20, 15:17

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 14:55, said:

If you think the hand is too weak for a double, you should probably pass.
If you think the hand is strong enough for a double, you should double.
I don't like 2 with such a defensive hand.
I don't see why you want your evaluation to be tied to K&R, and I think it is better to not rely on it. In fact, of all the hand evaluation metrics, I personally consider K&R one of the worst ones.


I would have bid 2 hearts and another if I hadn't doubled.

I don't use K&R until I have formed my own view of a hand, just use it as a kind of sense check, and I downvalued it, just not as much as K&R did. We tend to double on 15 if we have something to lead, and on that basis I doubled, evaluating the hand as 15.
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#14 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 01:55

I think we are having entirely different conversations.

In my opinion, this hand is too defensively oriented to bid. If you do not double, I think you should pass. The fact that you are using an artificial gadget to show hearts and another makes it slightly less attractice still to bid, since the opponents will have more room to determine what to do.

I still get the impression that you think K&R is 'correct', or 'more correct than your own judgement'. Personally I think this is a poor idea, in this situation especially. You should be looking at the defensive potential of your hand, not a strength measure. Also you are sitting over a lot of known values, which increases the value of your tenaces.

If you are happy with your decisions and are able to tell what is the best call down to what happens when you change your club spots I don't think I can contribute beyond that.
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#15 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 05:08

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-July-21, 01:55, said:

I think we are having entirely different conversations.

In my opinion, this hand is too defensively oriented to bid. If you do not double, I think you should pass. The fact that you are using an artificial gadget to show hearts and another makes it slightly less attractice still to bid, since the opponents will have more room to determine what to do.

I still get the impression that you think K&R is 'correct', or 'more correct than your own judgement'. Personally I think this is a poor idea, in this situation especially. You should be looking at the defensive potential of your hand, not a strength measure. Also you are sitting over a lot of known values, which increases the value of your tenaces.

If you are happy with your decisions and are able to tell what is the best call down to what happens when you change your club spots I don't think I can contribute beyond that.


a) artificial gadget makes it MORE attractive to bid as we will reach 3 opposite short hearts and 4+ clubs, if the option was natural 2 or pass, I wouldn't consider 2, would be double or pass.
b) on average we have more points than the opps, defending 1N if the points are 21:19 in our favour is likely to lead to +100 instead of 110 at MPs.

I don't think K&R is "correct" but I use it as a tool, after I have decided what to do, then consider who's right.

I said what call I would make with the changed club spots, I viewed the hand as 15 with them, less than 15 without them.
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#16 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 06:58

In my methods this is a wrp? type of question. Double is, in any method I’ve played v weak notrump, crystal clear.

The alternatives?

2H or your different conventional call, to show hearts and a minor? 11 of your 16 hcp are in the short suits and the internal texture of the long suits is hardly encouraging. Doubling doesn’t preclude the chances of reaching hearts, depending on methods.meanwhile, and related,y,partner will assume a significantly stronger offence/defence hand should the opponents be in trouble, as if definitely possible (and apparently was irl)

Pass: sure, it could be the winning all but would anyone really think that it was the most likely route to a good score?

Other than that sort of add-on comment, I strongly agree with DK.
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#17 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 19:44

View Postmikeh, on 2024-July-21, 06:58, said:

Test

Have you tried other browsers? I use Chrome and haven't been having problems posting.
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#18 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 23:35

 johnu, on 2024-July-21, 19:44, said:

Have you tried other browsers? I use Chrome and haven't been having problems posting.

I use Edge, I encounter sometimes problems, but very rarely, Edge and Chrome share the
same / a similar platform.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#19 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2024-July-21, 23:39

 mikeh, on 2024-July-21, 06:58, said:

<snip>
Pass: sure, it could be the winning all but would anyone really think that it was the most likely route to a good score?
<snip>

It is MP, and all are red, the question is, if going plus (+100) is enough, and if p has something +200 should be ok
most of the time. Depending on their methods, they may find a good partial.

You can sell me anything, but I dont think Pass is such a huge gamble.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#20 User is online   helene_t 

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Posted 2024-July-22, 05:41

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

That's sorta the point, isn't it? K&R measures offensive strength, defensive strength is more relevant for the decision to double.
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