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Good DCB hand

#1 User is offline   pilun 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 01:54



Not cold but clubs 3-2 and hearts not 5-1, plus diamond hook, etc.

1 - 1 = hearts
1N - 2 = clubs
2 - 3 = 2-5-2-4
3N - 4 = 9 SPs (3/2/1)
4 - 4 = -y, -0/2 (so 4+ SPs)
4N - 5 = -y, -y, -2nd, -no 3rd

For grands, it's important to be able to pick up QJ & KJ
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#2 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 04:28

I'm trying to find a better line of play than 'cash three rounds of clubs, play off two top hearts, cross to East in spades, play three more hearts pitching two diamonds and a spade, later ruff West's last spade loser'. As you say that relies on 3-2 clubs (if they split 4-1 even if the singleton is the jack we don't have a fifth heart trick as it can get ruffed, and now we need to rely on a diamond-spade squeeze or the diamond finesse) and hearts being 4-2 or 3-3 or singleton HT. I think that this puts the grand at approximately 47-48% or so - well below the 75% that I normally consider the threshold for wanting to be in grand. What am I missing?
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#3 User is offline   pilun 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 04:44

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-October-19, 04:28, said:

I'm trying to find a better line of play than 'cash three rounds of clubs, play off two top hearts, cross to East in spades, play three more hearts pitching two diamonds and a spade, later ruff West's last spade loser'. As you say that relies on 3-2 clubs (if they split 4-1 even if the singleton is the jack we don't have a fifth heart trick as it can get ruffed, and now we need to rely on a diamond-spade squeeze or the diamond finesse) and hearts being 4-2 or 3-3 or singleton HT. I think that this puts the grand at approximately 47-48% or so - well below the 75% that I normally consider the threshold for wanting to be in grand. What am I missing?


Not so great, as you say.

Not so bad either.
68% clubs 3-2 x 86% hearts coming in is 58%.

Plus other chances as you say.

Say they lead a major. Win in hand, A-Q.
If South has Jxxx, run Q, ruff a diamond, then finish trumps.
East might have had the 10, etc.
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#4 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 04:49

Ah my bad, the initial chances are 58%, not 48%. My mistake.
Combined with the other chances, does that break 75%?
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#5 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 05:16

View Postpilun, on 2024-October-19, 04:44, said:

68% clubs 3-2 x 86% hearts coming in is 58%.

Except that a priori probabilities don't really apply, since opps have had opportunities to bid.

View Postpilun, on 2024-October-19, 04:44, said:

Say they lead a major. Win in hand, A-Q.

South is the one more likely to have a singleton club.
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#6 User is offline   pilun 

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Posted 2024-October-19, 14:27

Can't handle North having Jxxx.

To the 58%, add about 6%(?) for the cases when one suit breaks badly and the diamond finesse wins.

In general I'm happy to be in any grand that needs a 3-2 break, so nearly there. In this case the other table is "virtually certain" to reach 33-point 6/6NT. Here 7 will gain 11 or lose 14, in which case 56% is the break even point.
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#7 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2024-October-20, 01:08

View Postpilun, on 2024-October-19, 14:27, said:

Can't handle North having Jxxx.

What do you mean?

Just to illustrate my point that South is the one more likely to have a singleton club (given opps' silence), here are 100 random deals given the EW hands:
Spoiler

The 30 of those where either North or South has 0-1 clubs:
Spoiler

The 16 deals where North has 0-1 clubs:
Spoiler

The 14 deals where South has 0-1 clubs:
Spoiler

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