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Evaluating 16 HCP Hands

#1 User is offline   jdiana 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 08:47

This is a really basic question but, playing a standard strong (15-17 HCP) NT system, after 1NT-2NT, how do you decide whether to accept the invitation with a 16 HCP hand?

Some things are kind of obvious, e.g., good intermediates or a good 5-card suit that seems like a potential source of tricks would IMO be reasons to accept. A preponderance of queens and jacks or a worthless doubleton (or tripleton, if that's a word) would be reasons to decline. What other factors or approaches do you all apply in that situation?
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#2 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 09:07

https://www.bridgeba...o-go-on-to-3nt/ has a longer discussion on this exact question.
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#3 User is offline   jdiana 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 11:05

View PostDavidKok, on 2024-November-05, 09:07, said:

https://www.bridgeba...o-go-on-to-3nt/ has a longer discussion on this exact question.


Thanks! I must have missed that one (or forgotten about it, which happens more and more . . .).
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#4 User is offline   jillybean 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 13:25

Good question, people laugh when I ask is it a good 16 or bad 16, but there’s a difference.
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
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#5 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 13:37

View Postjdiana, on 2024-November-05, 08:47, said:

This is a really basic question but, playing a standard strong (15-17 HCP) NT system, after 1NT-2NT, how do you decide whether to accept the invitation with a 16 HCP hand?

Judgement 😁😁
More seriously, the elements you quoted (intermediates, honor structure, source of tricks) are not as obvious as you think to anyone.
A 4432 vs 4333 pattern. could also help you decide (I guess you know which one is best).
Do you play IMPs vs MPs?
Does partner tend to stretch and invites light or not? In all cases, you absolutely need to be on the same page on that.
Do you like your hand or not? And more importantly, why?
And the more you practice the more you can answer this and diagnose if you have a good or bad 16.
You can also see if your hands mesh well with partner known 7+ minor cards, eg robust M stops and nice m fillers rather than the reverse. Listening to the auction (what was said and what was not said) can also help you assess the combined potential.
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#6 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 14:27

Not sure if this is a NB approach or not but it depends if I feel I can make it, and sometimes even if I just feel like playing safe

Always been a Dirty Harry fan
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#7 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2024-November-05, 21:21

Should accepting most 16 hcp hands
almost 50% of the time you are 15, those are the hands you decline

just play them better


actual odds
High Card Point Total Percentage
Count in 1 Hand Probability


17 23.4%
16 32.8%
15 43.8%
Sarcasm is a state of mind
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