[kereru67]

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I have my own opinion but I'll see what you guys think first.

[DavidKok]

Could I get an explanation of the auction?

[kereru67]

DavidKok, on 2024-November-22, 04:18, said:

Could I get an explanation of the auction?

Fairly standard, 2♣ game force, 2♥ is a biddable suit, 4nt blackwood, 5♣ no aces, 6♦ 1 king.

[P_Marlowe]

kereru67, on 2024-November-22, 04:57, said:

Fairly standard, 2♣ game force, 2♥ is a biddable suit, 4nt blackwood, 5♣ no aces, 6♦ 1 king.

So in other Words Dummy should show up with KTxxx in hearts.

I would go with a spade.

[TMorris]

10 ♦ for me, trying not to give away a trick

[mikeh]

Lol at this ‘standard’ auction…to NA eyes it’s very non-standard. It’s common in NA for a suit response to promise 2/3 top honours, or AKQ, 5+ length, and most play keycard over that and most play specific kings.

Ok, now that we know what the auction means….we can place north with Kxxxx in hearts and probably nothing meaningful extra.

Either declarer has a truly huge hand or he thinks he has a long running minor…AKQJxx(x). If the latter, then if it’s clubs, he’s probably right and if it’s diamonds we’ll need a lucky layout. Say 9xxxx for partner. But on those layouts, I’m struggling to find a losing lead, other than hearts.

What about AKJ Ax AKQJ9 AKQ? No defence…I’m squeezed in the majors on any lead. AKJ Ax AKQJ2 AKQ? If dummy has xxxx Kxxxx x xxx, a spade lead concedes the 12th trick and sets up the squeeze for the 13th.

I’ve gone back and forth on this, but trying to stay within the bounds of what would be permissible in a long team match, where taking five minutes on this decision would be acceptable. I’ve concluded that we need to be as passive as possible. I thought that meant diamonds. But then I flashed on A Ax AKJxxxxx AK….with partner holding Qxx. To me, it’s fractionally less likely that a club can cost….cost a trick? Maybe. Cost the contract by setting up a club suit that needs a finesse? Less likely.

So a club, without much confidence. Second choice…diamond. I’d rank this as club 90 diamond 80 spade 10 heart 0

[smerriman]

mikeh, on 2024-November-22, 13:04, said:

I’d rank this as club 90 diamond 80 spade 10 heart 0

I would have picked a club too, just in case it was a bad diamond break that was the means to beating the contract.

But just to play devil's advocate.. as ridiculous as it sounds, assuming declarer doesn't have 3 hearts for not raising, what hand could declarer have where a low heart lead costs the contract? I'm struggling to think of one, since it only costs a trick if dummy has an outside entry which likely dooms us anyway (or has no effect if declarer needs diamonds), though probably missing something obvious.