[paulg]

British Gold Cup semi-final.

Scoring: IMP

---

You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl, and hear the following bidding:

South  West   North  East
Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)
Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)
Pass    (Pass)

2♠= weak

Your lead?

[gwnn]

Surely pard has a spade stack and we can take 5 black tricks? best looks a safe spade lead

[FrancesHinden]

partner can certainly stand a spade lead
it feels as if declarer has running diamonds

[MomoTheDog]

Partner is almost certainly asking for a spade lead.

[gwnn]

I think it's not so much what this double "means" than what is "shows": it was probably a hand that would have passed a reopening double from us. Spades very well stopped and some outside honors.

[whereagles]

in any case a spade seems clear, no?

[gwnn]

whereagles, on Dec 14 2007, 03:17 PM, said:

in any case a spade seems clear, no?

of course.

[nige1]

cardsharp, on Dec 14 2007, 04:58 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

British Gold Cup semi-final.
You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl,
and hear the following bidding:
South  West   North  East
Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)
Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)
Pass    (Pass)
2♠= weak
Your lead?

---

IMO ♠=10, ♥=5, ♦=4, ♣=3.

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

• A. Spade fit e.g. ♠ A K x x ♥ A Q x ♦ T x x ♣ A x x or
  
• B. Solidish suit e.g. ♠- ♥ A K Q T x x x ♦ Q T x ♣ A x x

I agree that on the auction B. is more likely

[ArtK78]

nige1, on Dec 14 2007, 10:40 AM, said:

cardsharp, on Dec 14 2007, 04:58 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

British Gold Cup semi-final.
You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl,
and hear the following bidding:
South  West   North  East
Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)
Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)
Pass    (Pass)
2♠= weak
Your lead?

---

IMO ♠=10, ♥=5, ♦=4, ♣=3.

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

• A. Spade fit e.g. ♠ A K x x ♥A Q x ♦ J x ♣ A x x or
  
  
  
• B. Solidish suit e.g. ♠- H:AKQTxxx D:QTx C:Axx

I agree that on the auction B. is more likely.

B is more likely? And he didn't bid over 2♠?

Are you sure that he played in the Bermuda Bowl?

Quite frankly, I find A to be unlikely as well. I would expect something more like:

AQTxx Ax Jxx Axx

[jdonn]

ArtK78, on Dec 14 2007, 11:00 AM, said:

B is more likely?  And he didn't bid over 2♠?

Are you sure that he played in the Bermuda Bowl?

Quite frankly, I find A to be unlikely as well.  I would expect something more like:

AQTxx Ax Jxx Axx

nige1, on Dec 14 2007, 10:40 AM, said:

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

I would rank spade = 10, other = 0.

[ArtK78]

I have to get my glasses changed.



Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.

In any event, partner should have very good spades on this auction, and the spade lead seems clear.

[pclayton]

Spade, club, spade looks like a very profitable start.

[paulg]

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.

A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

[ArtK78]

Why not?

Last night in an ACBL IMP pair game on BBO, I held AQ9xx of hearts and a couple of other cards. My RHO opened 1H and the auction proceeded 1NT-2NT-3NT. I doubled for a heart lead, figuring that it was clearly our best lead and that with so many hearts offside we had a reasonable chance of going plus if we didn't give up a trick on the opening lead.

The result was +500 nonvul.

[pclayton]

cardsharp, on Dec 14 2007, 12:23 PM, said:

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.

A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

AKJ, xxx, AKxx, xxx is one type. Pard doesn't need to have a string of spades - frequently the double works out better with 3-4 good spades instead of 5 in a case like this.

[nige1]

cardsharp, on Dec 14 2007, 03:23 PM, said:

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.
A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

I wondered about that but surmised that there are several common hand types where partner would like a spade lead. For example ...

• Spade stack: indicating a safe lead, hoping that bad breaks will defeat the contract e.g. ♠ A J T 9 ♥ - ♦ A K x x ♣ T x x x x
  
• Solid suit with spade entry e.g. ♠ K J ♥ x x ♦ A K Q J ♣ x x x x x

The double could just mean that partner has a running suit and that you are meant to guess which. IMO that is a bit far-fetched when declarer may hold a long suit too. A double seems dangerous if you are just as likely to find declarer's long suit as partner's Of course, if, like ArtK78, you believe that declarer will never have a long heart suit, it's possible that partner is asking for that lead

[ArtK78]

I don't believe I used the word "never."

In any event, it would be odd for the hand over the 2♠ bidder to double for the lead of a suit he could have bid over 2♠. Rationally, the double requests a spade lead.

[han]

Spade lead is quite clear I think.

[barmar]

ArtK78, on Dec 14 2007, 01:40 PM, said:

Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.

Yeah, I think it's more likely declarer has a solid MINOR suit, and controls in the other two suits. He's assuming the 2♠ bidder can control that suit, and partner's double indicates that this may not have been a good assumption.

Note that there's still no guarantee that you're beating this. It's like a Lightner double: if the contract can be beaten, it probably requires the lead the double requests. At IMP scoring, the value of defeating a game is more than the bonus for making a doubled game (10-12 IMPs versus 5), so it's often a good gamble.

[nige1]

ArtK78, on Dec 14 2007, 05:18 PM, said:

I don't believe I used the word "never." 

I apologize for misrepresenting Artk78 In fact he wrote ...

ArtK78, on Dec 14 2007, 12:40 PM, said:

Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.