Some points of view:
- Tactically bidding 4♥ could be an 10-6 situation (win 10 in 4♥ makes, lose 6 if it fails), if 3♥ makes - so you should bid the game if it has more than 36% chances of making. Of course there are some aditional factors:
-you could go down in 3♥ too, so you lose only 3 IMP's by bidding game,
-you could get doubled, though it seems that opps don't have enough defensive tricks outside diamonds for doing that (they don't know you have 2 of them!)
- they could easily make some defensive error (for example not comunicating in diamonds for finessing ♠K if partner comes with some good long clubs)
Statistically bidding 4♥ is against the odds:
-partner holds an average of 2 hearts, and if the hearts lie badly (4-1 -28%) you may get punished. ♥J would have been a great asset
-partner's expected number of hcp's is under 4 (it's around 2), and even if he has a maximum, his points may not work properly ( wasted ♦Q or ♦J, ♠QJ and no third round control in clubs). In fact third round control in clubs is almost essential for game hopes (or ♠A, extremely unlikely)
In real life you got very lucky. You found 3rd round control in clubs and an working finesse and third trump.
How many hearts
#22
Posted 2008-October-22, 19:56
You could always bid 3NT. It may make rather more often at single dummy than it should at double dummy.
When Senators have had their sport
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.

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