mikeh, on May 21 2009, 02:46 PM, said:
1N is silly, in a 15-17 framework. No Aces=downgrade. 4333=downgrade. Lots of jacks=downgrade. 10's=upgrade. This is not close... not even remotely close, I am afraid. The 4321 scale is known to overstate Jacks while seriously understating A's.... and the 10's, while nice, don't offset the presence of the latter and the absence of the former.
While I agree that this hand is not a 15-17 1NT opener, I don't quite agree with your assessment of the 4321 system.
For suit purposes, yes, 4321 does overstate jacks (and queens) while drastically undervaluing aces.
But for NT purposes, 4321 understates 10s (even some would says 9s) and the slack should be borrowed, according the system of fifths, from the kings and queens.
I think people make the mistake (perhaps understandably given the example of pretty much all bridge literature) of trying to use one number to evaluate a hand. This works for a lot of hands that are neither particularly NT or suit oriented. This particular example, however, is fairly lousy for suit play - and actually quite good for NT play - albeit, to my mind, not quite there for a 15-17NT.
Of course, if you do ever upgrade a hand of this type (say a marginally better one), and partner bullies the contract into a suit, then he/she may be disappointed with the dummy. Equally, if you don't upgrade and later find yourself in NT (quite likely with this sort of holding of course), you could find yourself lower than you should be. But that is problem more of how one applies their system rather than hand valuation.
Nick
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.