[quiddity]

Scoring: IMP

P 1♥ P 1♠
P 2♥ P 4♥
P P P

---

Teams game against good opponents.
West starts by cashing the DA and DK, East playing high-low (discouraging). After some thought West continues with D5 and East follows.

Is this suspicious enough that I should have considered running the HT, or am I resulting?

[Jlall]

wat?

[quiddity]

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 05:45 PM, said:

wat?

West turned out to have QJxx; I could have run the T and squashed East's 9 to make the contract. At the time, down 1 seemed normal, but this diamond continuation has been bothering me. Would most defenders looking at AKQJx of spades and Txx of clubs defend so passively?

[kenrexford]

quiddity, on Sep 10 2009, 05:50 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 05:45 PM, said:

wat?

West turned out to have QJxx; I could have run the T and squashed East's 9 to make the contract. At the time, down 1 seemed normal, but this diamond continuation has been bothering me. Would most defenders looking at AKQJx of spades and Txx of clubs defend so passively?

Actually, I think you are on to something, but for an incomplete reason (or at least not complete in the statement).

LHO seems to "know" that his partner cannot have the club Ace.

The missing cards for you are the QJ in clubs and the QJ in hearts. If LHO has both of these, then he is looking at 13 HCP. With 14 in dummy, he sees 17 HCP. Take away the club Ace from your hand and give it to his partner, and you do not have an opening bid. Even giving up the club King is really difficult. The most you could have is 10, 2 of which are Qx in diamonds (presumably -- if LHO gave attitude, your 10-Q could be false).

If LHO is missing either Jack, you could have six hearts and an 11-count. That makes a club switch more appealing, for the obvious reason.

So, there is a somewhat good reason to suspect that LHO has QJxx in hearts.

If hearts are 3-2, it does not matter what is going on.

Many 4-1 heart splits cannot be picked up.

QJxx-9 works on the 10 play.

Q-J9xx and J-Q9xx can be handled by small to the King and back finessing.

x-QJxx also might be picked up, if there is some sort of coup, but I don't care to analyze that. So, I'll assume it is NORMALLY a 2:1 favorite for you to play small to King and back.

But, the defense suggestion seems to tilt the odds toward the 10 play. Whether it tilts far enough... Not sure.

[Jlall]

quiddity, on Sep 10 2009, 05:50 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 05:45 PM, said:

wat?

West turned out to have QJxx; I could have run the T and squashed East's 9 to make the contract. At the time, down 1 seemed normal, but this diamond continuation has been bothering me. Would most defenders looking at AKQJx of spades and Txx of clubs defend so passively?

What about west having 3 diamonds, and trying to get a trump promotion set up. For example, if west has something like:

xxx
Jx
AKx
Qxxxx

He knows that if you have AQ of hearts it is all over (partner cannot have the AK of clubs given our opening bid). The best chance to defeat this then is partner having the HA. You cannot be sure of getting your heart trick in, declarer might have 7 hearts and drop your jack later. Or partner might have AT doubleton. However if you play your third diamond and declarer plays a heart to the king, you will score your trump via promotion.

So playing your diamond is your best technical play in this situation.

If that is what the defense is doing, swinging the T of hearts around is going to work out horribly since they WILL get their promotion after all.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 07:31 PM, said:

quiddity, on Sep 10 2009, 05:50 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 05:45 PM, said:

wat?

West turned out to have QJxx; I could have run the T and squashed East's 9 to make the contract. At the time, down 1 seemed normal, but this diamond continuation has been bothering me. Would most defenders looking at AKQJx of spades and Txx of clubs defend so passively?

What about west having 3 diamonds, and trying to get a trump promotion set up. For example, if west has something like:

xxx
Jx
AKx
Qxxxx

He knows that if you have AQ of hearts it is all over (partner cannot have the AK of clubs given our opening bid). The best chance to defeat this then is partner having the HA. You cannot be sure of getting your heart trick in, declarer might have 7 hearts and drop your jack later. Or partner might have AT doubleton. However if you play your third diamond and declarer plays a heart to the king, you will score your trump via promotion.

So playing your diamond is your best technical play in this situation.

If that is what the defense is doing, swinging the T of hearts around is going to work out horribly since they WILL get their promotion after all.

Cool analysis.

I suppose LHO, if he has QJxx in hearts, should probably play "passively" by leading the normal club.

[Jlall]

This combination is really cool in a vacuum though, shouldn't we always be playing the HT? IF lho plays the 9 or an honor just win the king and play low to the 8 now. If LHO plays low just play low.

This is better than just playing the king since it picks up QJxx on your left and doesn't lose to any holding that playing the king wins against.

[cherdanno]

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 09:46 PM, said:

This combination is really cool in a vacuum though, shouldn't we always be playing the HT? IF lho plays the 9 or an honor just win the king and play low to the 8 now. If LHO plays low just play low.

This is better than just playing the king since it picks up QJxx on your left and doesn't lose to any holding that playing the king wins against.

QJ9x on our right??

Edit: ooops I really shouldn't post anything today....

[Jlall]

cherdanno, on Sep 10 2009, 09:53 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 10 2009, 09:46 PM, said:

This combination is really cool in a vacuum though, shouldn't we always be playing the HT? IF lho plays the 9 or an honor just win the king and play low to the 8 now. If LHO plays low just play low.

This is better than just playing the king since it picks up QJxx on your left and doesn't lose to any holding that playing the king wins against.

QJ9x on our right??

HOW DO WE PICK THAT UP EVER???????

[gnasher]

A1087xx opposite Kx is one of my favourite card combinations, but I've never had it in a situation where it actually looked safe to run the 10. Perhaps I don't play enough hands in notrumps.

kenrexford, on Sep 11 2009, 03:01 AM, said:

I suppose LHO, if he has QJxx in hearts, should probably play "passively" by leading the normal club.

Not if he knows his safety plays. He should make it as dangerous as possible for declarer to take the safety play.

Regarding West's decision not to switch to clubs, after the second diamond he will usually know that a club switch is too late. If declarer has something like xx Axxxxx Qx Axx, declarer can cash two trumps before throwing the clubs on a diamond and a spade. The club switch works only if declarer is 3622 with one defender being 2=3 in the majors, or if he's 2623 with one defender being 1-3 in the majors.

One more thing: East had a choice of cards on the second round of diamonds. Presumably his lowest would have shown a club card, and anything else would have denied a club card. Hence inspection of the diamond pips may tell you whether a club switch was actually something that West was considering.

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Sep 11 2009, 02:59 AM, said:

A1087xx opposite Kx is one of my favourite card combinations, but I've never had it in a situation where it actually looked safe to run the 10. Perhaps I don't play enough hands in notrumps.

kenrexford, on Sep 11 2009, 03:01 AM, said:

I suppose LHO, if he has QJxx in hearts, should probably play "passively" by leading the normal club.

Not if he knows his safety plays. He should make it as dangerous as possible for declarer to take the safety play.

Well a club makes it kind of dangerous also (club, heart ten to some honor, club back heart to the king and you have to cash a D to pitch a club and then you have to not get overruffed in whichever black suit you choose to play).

But yeah I think a diamond is definitely better so you are right.