[jschafer]

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Club lead to the Ace. Small ♦ switch.

Edit:
If you play a ♠ at some point:

Spoiler

both opponents follow with a small ♠

This post has been edited by jschafer: 2010-November-13, 18:47

[nige1]

jschafer, on 2010-November-13, 17:44, said:

Club lead to the Ace. Small ♦ switch.

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Complete guess: ♦K, ♣ ruff, ♠K, ♥A, ♥ ruff
If ♠ are 4-1 then ♠J, ♥ ruff, hoping that ♥K comes down in three.
If both follow to ♠K and ♥K has appeared, then claim.
Else ♣ ruff and guess which is the safer re-entry ♥ ruff or ♦Q. With no clear indication, ♦Q seems safer.

[ceeb]

jschafer, on 2010-November-13, 17:44, said:

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Club lead to the Ace. Small ♦ switch.

Edit:
If you play a ♠ at some point:

Spoiler

both opponents follow with a small ♠

♦K, ♣ ruff, ♠K. If they are 4-0, there is still the heart finesse. If they are 0=4 there is also the trump coup, and in fact I think it's a better shot notwithstanding that it requires RHO to follow to 3 ♦s.

If spades break, ♥A, ruff (in case the ♥K drops), ♠ ruff, ♦ to hand.

[MrAce]

If i skip 4-0 breaks to increase my chances when 3-1

-♦K

-♥A

-♥ and ruff with 8 or 9, if all follow will claim my 12 tricks. ♠A and ♠ to K, ruff 3rd♥ with Q, ♠ to J and ruff 4th ♥

If overruffed with T i am down but so others so far. If W discards on the 2nd♥ then ♠ AK and now ♥Q and ruff when covered (west can not have any trumps, since he failed to overruff my 8 earlier) ♠ to Jack and ♥T and ruff when covered, and claim dummy established with ♦ A entry.

If RHO does not follow 2nd ♥ that will reduce my chances down to 2-2 ♠ and will try to ruff 2♣ i guess...or xruffs. Starting ♥A and ♥ruff at trick 3 and 4 allows me for that if 3-3♦

OR

-♦K

-♠A, if 4-0 play on ♥ finesse ....if all follow same line as above starting with A ♥ and another♥ and ruff with 8 or 9 in hand.

[ceeb]

MrAce, on 2010-November-13, 23:48, said:

If i skip 4-0 breaks to increase my chances when 3-1-♦K-♥A-♥ and ruff with 8 or 9, if all follow will claim my 12 tricks. ♠A and ♠ to K, ruff 3rd♥ with Q, ♠ to J and ruff 4th ♥If overruffed with T i am down but so others so far. If W discards on the 2nd♥ then ♠ AK and now ♥Q and ruff when covered (west can not have any trumps, since he failed to overruff my 8 earlier) ♠ to Jack and ♥T and ruff when covered, and claim dummy established with ♦ A entry.If RHO does not follow 2nd ♥ that will reduce my chances down to 2-2 ♠ and will try to ruff 2♣ i guess...or xruffs. Starting ♥A and ♥ruff at trick 3 and 4 allows me for that if 3-3♦OR -♦K-♠A, if 4-0 play on ♥ finesse ....if all follow same line as above starting with A ♥ and another♥ and ruff with 8 or 9 in hand.

That seems a good line. However, even when no ♠ void and no ♥ singleton it fails when LHO has ♠10xx,♥xx (or ♥KJx as you will misguess that in order to win against ♥Jx). Also when LHO holds ♠7xx,♥x it is not true that you can establish ♥ with ruffing finesses. So I think your main chance is more like 73% than 77%.

On the other hand, you make against at least 1/3 of the 9% chance of 4-0 ♠ breaks, whenever the ♥ lie well (3-3 and some ♥Kx). And when ♥ are 5=1 you do not need 2-2 ♠; 3-1 is fine. That's 5% more. I figure 81% total.

My main chance -- no ♠ void nor red singleton -- is about 77%, and I do about 1% better on 4-0 trump breaks than you do. By my calculation (and one could argue that my mistakes are biased in that I might quit when I am ahead) my line is 0.5% better. Probably that small difference is less than various things I didn't account for such as the opponents' silence in the auction, so I am not concluding either line is better than the other.

[MrAce]

ceeb, on 2010-November-14, 01:16, said:

That seems a good line. However, even when no ♠ void and no ♥ singleton it fails when LHO has ♠10xx,♥xx (or ♥KJx as you will misguess that in order to win against ♥Jx). Also when LHO holds ♠7xx,♥x it is not true that you can establish ♥ with ruffing finesses. So I think your main chance is more like 73% than 77%.

Huh! When no ♠ void and no ♥stiff i have a claim. Look at my line 2(starts with OR) ; I do not need to guess anything. Here is where u go wrong..watch

♠A and if all followed, then ♥A and ♥ruff, assume LHO has Txx ♠ and xx ♥, now he has Tx♠(due to following spade A) and no ♥ left, RHO has 2 more ♥ only. I play ♠ to K (LHO has only T left) and ruff 3rd ♥ with Q (RHO has 1 ♥ left) and play 3rd♠ to dummy's J (LHO has no trump now) and i can ruff the 4th ♥ small in hand and claim

I dunno where that brings my overall %, since i am a truck driver (18 wheeler) and i suck at calculating these percentages, but i know when no void ♠ and no stiff ♥ i have a % 100 making line

Your line, however, after ruffing ♣ and ♥A ♥ ruff (u did not mention with which ♥ u ruff, goes down if u ruff small when LHO overruffs, a slight chance i knw, but i can make then if 2-2 ♠ and LHO doesnt have T. You also go down when no one has void ♠ and no stiff♥ if RHO ruffs second ♦

You are also wrong about LHO having 7xx ♠ and stiff ♥ that i cant establish ♥, because when i cash ♠ A all followed SMALL upto problem hints.That eliminates the only distribution that can beat me, which is 7xx ♠ with LHO (since he failed to overruff my ♠ 8 in first round

EDIT: My line 1 also makes % 100 when no void ♠ and no stiff♥, same thing after ♦K, ♥A and ruff, ♠A and K (LHO has T left) ruff 3rd ♥with Q, and clear LHO last trump by playing to dummy's J, and ruff 4th ♥.

[Fluffy]

Best line to come to hand twice after testing trumps is to cash ♥A and then play a diamond to the King/Queen.

[ceeb]

MrAce, on 2010-November-14, 01:50, said:

Huh! When no ♠ void and no ♥stiff i have a claim. Look at my line 2(starts with OR) ; I do not need to guess anything. Here is where u go wrong..

Sorry, I misread what you wrote, then blindly calculated without thinking about the logic until after I left the computer.

Quote

I dunno where that brings my overall %,

According to my calculation yesterday it adds around 3%.

Quote

Your line, however, after ruffing ♣ and ♥A ♥ ruff (u did not mention with which ♥ u ruff, goes down if u ruff small when LHO overruffs, a slight chance i knw, but i can make then if 2-2 ♠ and LHO doesnt have T.

Of course, I risk that. Since I'm planning to take the second club ruff in dummy with one high trump, it would be clearly wrong to ruff high in hand as well protecting against a singleton heart and losing to the far more likely ♠10xx.

Quote

You also go down when no one has void ♠ and no stiff♥ if RHO ruffs second ♦

Yes, I calculated all that, but didn't add the slight possibility that the ♥K might come down in one or two rounds.

Quote

You are also wrong about LHO having 7xx ♠ and stiff ♥ that i cant establish ♥, because when i cash ♠ A all followed SMALL up to problem hints.That eliminates the only distribution that can beat me, which is 7xx ♠ with LHO (since he failed to overruff my ♠ 8 in first round

I assume the means you are joking. The hint also tells us the spades are in fact not 4-0, but it is a hint, not a stipulation. For example I found it interesting and useful because it makes the point that immediately testing the trumps is a terrible play.

[ceeb]

jschafer, on 2010-November-13, 17:44, said:

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Club lead to the Ace. Small ♦ switch.

The ♦ switch is quite strange. Presumably our 6♦ bid tells West where the ♦K is, so how does West know that it's not pickling East's ♦Q (whether or not West holds the ♦J)? I am not sure what to make of this clue but it may negate, for better or for worse, the blind probability analysis I considered before.

[MrAce]

If i planned my play depending on the tip, i would not have started with ♠A to test trumps in my 2nd line of choices, but after cashing ♠A, i have to know what dropped and what did not from opponents. At this stage i don't think u will mind me to check and see what opponents played on ♠A.

Therefore i was not kidding, LHO can not have 7xx ♠ when couldn't overruff my 8

And you are absolutely right about that ♦ switch, it really made me concerned, it is HIGHLY unusual for defense to switch to a suit that has AT9 in dummy from far corner in a slam contract where they already took 1 trick.

[lesh]

1) K di
2) Asp - if someone does not follow,i will rely on the hearts, with finessing the king and establishing the hearts later on.
3) Ahe - he ruff with 9 well if I am overrufed, I would call it unlucky Also I increase my chances after drawing Ace of spades in the case of a singleton ten.
4) then it is easy. - go to Ksp, ruff he high,Jsp, ruff he and Adi is an entry to hearts .

[mfa1010]

I would play it like MrAce: ♦K, ♥A, ♥ ruff with ♠9. If this lives, we are practically home.
(Sorry didnt read the long analysis by MrAce & Ceeb.)

There is a decent inference that hearts are not 1-5, since west could have led his singleton. Cashing ♠A is not worth it since we need to change horses if hearts are 5-1.

[ceeb]

MrAce, on 2010-November-14, 14:32, said:

If i planned my play depending on the tip, i would not have ...

Then we agree that the question is how to play based on the situation at trick 2, at which time the ♠ could be anything.

Quote

Therefore i was not kidding, LHO can not have 7xx ♠ when couldn't overruff my 8

So whatever line you choose, ♠7xx,♥x is a possibility, either a winning case or a losing case. The case has to be considered in the probability calculation.

[nige1]

jschafer, on 2010-November-13, 17:44, said:

Club lead to the Ace. Small ♦ switch.

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On reflection, MRAce's idea seems best: put your eggs in the ♥ basket.
♦K, ♠A, ♥A, ruff a ♥ with ♠9.
If ♠ are not 4-1 and ♥ are not 5-1, then claim (♠J, ruff a ♥ with ♠Q, ♠K, ruff a ♥....)
If ♥ are 5-1 but LHO could not over-ruff, then you're still OK when ♠ are 2-2 (or sometimes when you have a proven ruffing finesse).
If ♠ are 4-0 then ♠KJ and try to set up ♥ with another ruff. If ♥K appears in three, then claim.