[ceeb]

Club honor led to the A. Low club returned.

---

How would you play? This hand is from a BBO Cayne match and East seems to me, as one would expect, a good player though I don't recognize the (Italian) name. I had one idea at the time; a different one later. I don't recall the exact lead but assume it was Q or J so East would know a club continuation was at least "safe" if not safe.

[rogerclee]

We can:

1) win in hand pitching anything, and play for 2-2 spades along with 3-3 diamonds or Qx/stiff Q in either hand
2) ruff in dummy and take the diamond hook

Let's suppose we take line 2. If we're wrong then we're down 2 (500 and 550 are both lose 11 though), but if the DQ is on:

1) RHO covers with the Q

Then we are just going to play for 2-2 spades or RHO having 3 spades and 4 diamonds.

2) RHO doesn't cover with the Q

The jack holds and we play another diamond. Now if RHO plays the Q, then we just hope spades are 2-2. If they play low though, and our T holds, then we can also make if spades are 3-1 either way and diamonds are 2-4.

I'm not sure holding the ♦Q makes returning a club more or less attractive. They might not want to pick up their partner's Jxxx, or they might think we could have a choice of red suit finesses to make 6 and want to make it more attractive for us to take the heart hook, so maybe it's slightly more likely they have the diamond queen.

Anyway this was sort of rambling, but I would ruff in dummy and run the DJ.

[cherdano]

rogerclee, on 2011-January-18, 11:45, said:

We can:

1) win in hand pitching anything, and play for 2-2 spades along with 3-3 diamonds or Qx/stiff Q in either hand

So we pitch a heart, cash a spade and two diamonds. If RHO's queen drops, we cash another spade and continue to run diamonds, so we also make if RHO has ♦Qx and one spade. If LHO's queen drops, we continue running diamonds without cashing a second spade and make on any 3-1 (or 2-2) spade split.

Since the queen dropping is about 50%, we can just compare the extra chances of the two lines:
- Line 1) gains when LHO has ♦Qx and spades are 3-1 either way, or when RHO has ♦Qx and and spades are 3=1.
- Line 2) gains when RHO has ♦Qxxx and doesn't cover, and spades are 3-1 either way.
If RHO covers 25% of the time these two are equal (Qxxx is exactly twice as likely as Qx).

[ceeb]

My first thought was that percentage is win the ♣K (discarding a heart -- not "anything") and play ♦ from the top for two more discards which is 53% in the ♦ suit. The alternative of ruffing the ♣K and finessing ♦ for three discards is obviously <50% in the ♦ suit (actually 42% since 5-1 or 6-0 diamonds is no good) so superficially inferior. However, I posted wondering if my second thought that RHO's reluctance to break a red suit could indicate her actual ♦Qxxx (e.g. fear of squashing partner's ♦10xx) was valid or resulting. I take Rogerclee's point that it was hindsight.

I overlooked the possibility of making when spades are 3-1.

Quote

- Line 1) gains when LHO has ♦Qx and spades are 3-1 either way, or when RHO has ♦Qx and and spades are 3=1.

4% + 2%

Quote

- Line 2) gains when RHO has ♦Qxxx and doesn't cover, and spades are 3-1 either way.

5%x? + 3%

So unless my arithmetic is way off, the differential from 3-1 spade break successes for the two lines is dwarfed by line 2's need for a ♦ break.

[gszeszycki]

I agree with rogerclee LOP but for a totally different reason. Put yourself in E seat with either of the following
2 collections of cards

xx---------------xx
xxxx-------------xxxx
Qxx(x)-----------xxx(x)
Axx(x)-----------Axx(x)

I win the club A and looking at that dummy I count our side as having around 14 hcp I was looking at (4 or 6)
therefore p has 8 or 10 -QJ clubs so they have 5 to 7 left. More than enough room for a side K. Why would I ever
choose to make a known "nothing" play of a club when I can attack either red suit? If I am not looking at the dia
Q there is zero reason to even try to lock declarer in their hand (remember I have no reason to assume they only
AK spades and no immediate entry to dummy. I would surely at least try to make an attacking lead since my only
entry is gone and an attacking lead might be only way to set the contract. If I am looking at the dia Q I would
not want to force declarer to rise with presumed heart A (if I return a heart) and rely on the dia finesse. It is far better (if I have Qxxx of dia to allow declarer a choice of options like playing for imagined 33 dia split and if that fails to fall back on heart finesse. My guess is Rho has Qxxx in diamonds and I play accordingly

[nigel_k]

It's early morning here so I may be just sleepy but can you explain how you are ever making with spades 3-1 after you ruff the club?

[ceeb]

Point well taken.

[rogerclee]

nigel_k, on 2011-January-19, 13:48, said:

It's early morning here so I may be just sleepy but can you explain how you are ever making with spades 3-1 after you ruff the club?

Ah this is right, we need three pitches if we ruff the club, heh.