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Math Problem Settle an argument.

#1 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2011-January-24, 22:05

Came to a stalemate with karlson on this one until he ran a sim. I'm still not convinced.



LHO leads the J, RHO follows with the 6 and you win the ACE.

You lead a low , LHO pitches the 2.

Line A) You Play RHO to be 3253:
T3: A
T4: K (pitch a club)
T5: ruff
T6-7: AK
T8: K
T9: ruff
T10: Q from:



Line B ) You play RHO to be 2353 or 3352
T3-4: AK
T5-7: Q, K, A
T8: K (RHO drops the Q, LHO does or doesn't drop the 10)
T9: ?



What do you ruff in dummy? Opponents play optimally.


What's better, Line A or Line B? What's the best play at the diagrammed position in line B?
Kevin Fay
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#2 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2011-January-24, 22:24

Heart doubleton is more likely.

A club doubleton is more likely than a spade doubleton.
Wayne Burrows

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#3 User is offline   ceeb 

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Posted 2011-January-25, 10:19

I agree with Cascade as regards dealing probabilities. Given the trump break,
3253 is over 14%
2353 is under 10%
3352 is under 12%.

However, there is a restricted choice argument that in the last case LHO might well discard a club from 5305, whereas in the first case with 5404 the defender has little choice because of the excellent bidding. So if I chose line 2 I'd tend to ruff a club.
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#4 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2011-January-25, 10:31

Any computation that ignores inferences from the lead is not enough.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#5 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-January-25, 11:03

Line B is definitely wrong, because of Line C:

Play as in line B, but win the third heart in the North hand.
If East is 2452, ruff the last heart, cash DA, and ruff a black card with the 6.
If hearts are 3-3, lead the last heart, which LHO has to ruff. Overuff with the ace and guess what to ruff in hand.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#6 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2011-January-25, 18:26

View Postcherdano, on 2011-January-25, 10:31, said:

Any computation that ignores inferences from the lead is not enough.


Not to mention that any computation ignoring the bidding. I mean, 6-P-P-P was clearly not the sequence. If RHO has has only two spades, then LHO started with six of them and might have overcalled in any number of scenarios, especially with a void in trumps (and thus 6-4-3-0 shape). So, a REAL auction makes 3-card spades to the right probably a fair bet.
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