[Cyberyeti]

nige1, on 2011-June-21, 13:22, said:

Thank you RMB1. I feared as much. Presumably a director may judge that 4♠ can be reached without use of UI by either partner. Cyberyeti also suggests giving weights to results like 4♦-2 by E-W (declarer revokes?). These seem to encourage potential offenders. The law-makers opened Pandora's box.

Actually no I was asleep and couldn't count tricks, declarer will always make 9 in diamonds.

The point I was making was that you basically calculate the weighted score including some of 4♠, and give the adjustment only if the overall score is better for the NOS. My conjecture was that when everything was calculated, it would all fall out not much different to the table score.

The obvious route to 4♠ is after 3♦-X-3♠ I think the other hand can not only wake up, but work out that his partner has 6 spades and 5 hearts. He probably passes 3♠ but might take the push over 4♦.

[nige1]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-June-21, 15:04, said:

...declarer will always make 9 in diamonds...

At least nine. On a spade (or trump) lead, East makes 5♦ if he is given a correct explanation of North's bids.

Cyberyeti, on 2011-June-21, 15:04, said:

The point I was making was that you basically calculate the weighted score including some of 4♠, and give the adjustment only if the overall score is better for the NOS. My conjecture was that when everything was calculated, it would all fall out not much different to the table score.

Its the way you weigh 'em.

Cyberyeti, on 2011-June-21, 15:04, said:

The obvious route to 4♠ is after 3♦-X-3♠ I think the other hand can not only wake up, but work out that his partner has 6 spades and 5 hearts. He probably passes 3♠ but might take the push over 4♦.

Just checking...

• The director would rule that 3♠ is the only LA for North?
• He would then accept that South can "wake up" to his misexplanation, so that he passes 3♠?
• South is now confident enough that he is on the same wavelength as North, to take the push to 4♠?
• Hence the weighting should include "quite a lot of 4♠="?

I fear that, in practice, cyberyeti is right .

[Cyberyeti]

nige1, on 2011-June-21, 17:21, said:

At least nine. On a spade (or trump) lead, East makes 5♦ if he is given a correct explanation of North's bids. Its the way you weight 'em. Just checking...

• The director would rule that 3♠ is the only LA for North?
• He would then accept that South can "wake up" to his misexplanation, so that he passes 3♠?
• South is now confident enough that he is on the same wavelength as North, to take the push to 4♠?
• Hence the weighting should include "quite a lot of 4♠="?

I fear that, in practice, cyberyeti is right .

OK, at least 9.

I think it's reasonable to rule 3♠ is the only LA particularly if the OS convince the TD that pretty much any hand with 6 or more diamonds would have been opened. This would be trivial for me playing with my normal partner for excample.

3♠ is a nonsense if N holds ♦/♥, he'd just play 3♦x or bid 3♥ if he's bid something warped on a 7-5, so I think S can wake up. He has no UI unless partner's discomfort was apparent at the time of the explanation.

What happens next is open to interpretation, and this is not a weighting I'd like to work out. I hadn't appreciated the significance of the stiff 8 of clubs when looking at it before, in fact even if the defence take their club ruff, there are always 10 tricks available in ♦ I think.

So we're looking at percentages of: 3♠+1 +170 (not a lot, I think E bids 4♦ most of the time), 4♦= -130, 4♦+1 -150, 4♠= +620 and possibly a little of 4♠x +790, 5♦= -400 and 5♦-1 +50.

I think this means that EW will get a fair bit of benefit from the adjustment, and that's without opening the can of worms that arises from W not doubling even though he said he would.