[wyman]

---

Teams. Opps probably have 1500MP but are not strong. 4th best, "standard" carding.

T1: ♣6, Q, 5, 2

You're up.

[billw55]

ugh.

"1500MP but not strong" I still trust to cash out their clubs without blocking the suit. I guess I'll check for a diamond miracle before the heart miracle. But which diamond miracle, stiff king with east or stiff jack with west? I guess if west has long clubs he is a slight favorite to have short diamonds, so I lead the ♦Q from dummy. If not covered, up with ace and heart to the ten.

[mikeh]

We have two choices, neither good.

We can double hook hearts and hope the spades come home, and now we only need 1 diamond trick. Assuming spades come home, the double heart hook is a tad under 25% (because I estimate that LHO has 5 clubs, so slightly less room for the heart cards than RHO). The spades coming home is about 50% since we prevail on all 3-3 and the J coming down. So ballpark 12-13%.

The alternative is to play for the diamonds to come home, and now we don't need the spades to break or any heart finesse. But which stiff to play for? Assuming we get it right, I think the percentages are very close between this line and the double heart hook.

So can we combine some of these chances? I think so.

I think we cash the spade KQ and then cross to the spade A.

If spades are good for 4 tricks, we hook the heart 10.

If spades are not good, and LHO has the length (and the J hasn't dropped), we play him for the stiff diamond Jack...he has, we assume, 9 black cards to his partner's 6.


If RHO has length( with the J), then we have equality of combined black suit length and it is a pure and improbable guess.

[bd71]

mikeh, on 2012-March-05, 10:23, said:

...because I estimate that LHO has 5 clubs...

How did you conclude this?

[mikeh]

bd71, on 2012-March-05, 12:09, said:

How did you conclude this?

he led 4th best.....it is possible that he has 6 and rho has 3, but it seems slightly more probable that RHO was signalling an even number and then LHO has to have 5. Note that I wrote that I was estimating, not 'concluding'.

Bridge requires that we make and remake assumptions or estimates of the distribution of the oppenents' cards....our estimates tend to be somewhat tentative early in the game, tho there are times when one can be fairly confident of the entire distribution as early as trick 1. So here, it may be important for me to make a decision based on my guess/estimate of shape, so I begin to formulate ideas as early as possible....but, and this is crucial, I don't get committed to them until I am sure they are correct.

[wyman]

Not to mention that, ignoring RHO's 5 as a meaningful signal, there are 2x as many consistent 5-card possibilities as 4-carders. Of course LHO can have 6 (and there are as many of these as there are 4-carders as well), but 6-carders are less likely in general.

Plus, we know RHO has an honor, and the 5 doesn't really make sense from H(H/x)5, but it does look plausible from HH5x.

[wyman]

So, at the table, I played SK, SA and lefty showed up with Jx. I played 2 more rounds of spades, and lefty pitched two low hearts in tempo. So I decided to play LHO for
Jx Kxxx Kx Axxxx by exiting a club. [In hindsight this is terrible, of course. If LHO holds that, I can now play a diamond to the ace, heart to the Q, ace of hearts dropping the jack, and 10 of hearts for the contract, which wins on additional holdings as well.]

The heart king was off, so it didn't matter. But yeah, the percentage play here was not at all clear to me. Thanks for the input.