MrAce, on 2012-May-29, 00:53, said:
Hi, welcome to forums.
Your calculations are wrong.
A- When the suit splits 3-3 (assuming no entry problems as u stated) there is no losing line since the goal is to make 3 club tricks. So i dont know why you came up with the idea that double finesse loses in 4 cases when it is 3-3 and A then small wins when 3-3.
B-Also double finesse does not lose to all 4-2 split honours. I think you forgot your own word about goal being 3 tricks, not 4.
Letme give u the 4-2 breaks that you rely on
KQ98-xx no one wins
KQ9x-8x no one wins
KQ8x-9x no one wins
KQxx-98 Ace and then small loses, 2 finesse wins
KQ-98xx Ace and small wins, 2 finesse loses
98xx-KQ Both wins
Hxxx-Hx Both wins
Hx-Hxxx Both wins
xx-KQ98 Ace and small loses, 2 finesse wins
8x-KQ9x Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins
98-KQxx Ace and small loses , 2 finesse wins
There are also 1-5 splits where cashing ace wins when lho has stiff honor but loses to all other singletons.
Thanks for the welcome!..and for the time you took to illustrate your reply...I agree with your counting of cases all else equal. In the context of the suit alone your analysis is impeccable. 2 finesses have a 77% chance of yielding 3 tricks.
However I thought along different lines (and failed to be clear) - I wanted the best line for 3
♣ tricks without clearing the
♦Ace.
My proposal(Ace then small) assumed that the downside risk of leaving
♦ wide open was high and intolerable. Therefore I dismissed the double finesse approach (we have to give up a 2nd club after a successful 2nd finesse leaving
♦s wide open). So not all 3-club trick cases are equal. Those that preserve the
♦Ace have to be more valuable, no? Granted we pay when
♦ split 5-2 and the defense can cash 4
♦s (Certainly 4-3 is more likely) or when defense can get 2
♣ and 3
♦.
As for the singleton honor cases you point out, there are 6 cases, 2 of which an initial Ace captures a singleton honor. So that's a 3% option roughly...doesn't seem to be a percentage play...
Thanks for your advice.
Phil says "Here's a play problem from Saturday: The opening lead is the ♠5 (4th). Plan the play."
Half-baked (avoidance?) idea:
WIn ♠J, finesse ♣7
Win ♠ continuation, Cash ♣A.
Hoping to make 3 x ♠, 2 X ♥, 1 X ♦, and 3 X ♣.