Posted 2012-May-20, 13:04
Call me resulter but i would bid 3 NT in a split second.
There are too many variables that will decide the outcome of this 3 NT and imo inviting discovers almost none of them. When you make an invitation with a long minor as your pd i take it as you need help in this suit. But you don't !! I would much rather prefer pd holding xx or xxx than Hxx or HHx vs a 12-14 NT. Even if pd knows correctly, each and every time when to b id 3 NT and when not when you invite, i would still not do it for the reason below..
By showing a long diamond suit and an invitation hand, not only to your pd but also to your opponents, you are reducing the chances of making 3 NT by A LOT imo, even if you score +130 vs other table 3 NT -200 or -300 winning +9 or 10 IMP will be a loser in the long run imo. This is way too valuable information that you give to defense with that type of hands. But when you bid 3 NT you may have this or you may have a 16 hcp balanced hand vs a weak NT. Very tuff to lead. And as Italians say, very first opening lead is way too important and disabling defenders from making a good one as much as you can is more vital than any other hint you are trying to predict by looking at your own hand when deciding if you guys should play game or stay in partscore.
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